New Risk • Mar 06
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €2.62m (US$2.84m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (28% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 22% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (€2.62m market cap, or US$2.84m). Minor Risk Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). New Risk • Feb 26
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (17% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 22% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Market cap is less than US$100m (€10.6m market cap, or US$11.4m). New Risk • Dec 18
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 22% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (19% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 22% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€14.4m market cap, or US$15.7m). Aankondiging • Oct 19
HELMA Eigenheimbau AG Appoints Felix J. Krekel as New Supervisory Board Member HELMA Eigenheimbau AG appointed Felix J. Krekel as new Supervisory Board member. Felix J. Krekel (56), is a Certified International Investment Analyst and holds a degree in business administration. He also possesses many years' experience in the construction and real estate sector and a profound knowledge of the capital market, acquired in various management positions at listed companies and through his activities in investment banking. He is managing director of coinIX Capital GmbH and deputy chairman of the Supervisory Board of Solutiance AG. Accordingly the Supervisory Board of HELMA Eigenheimbau AG now comprises Karl-Heinz Maerzke (chairman), together with Oliver Bletgen (deputy chairman), Andreas Zschiesche and Felix J. Krekel. Their term of office in each case ends upon the conclusion of the annual general meeting which resolves upon the discharge of the Supervisory Board members for the financial year 2023. New Risk • Aug 13
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 8.1% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (19% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 22% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€19.8m market cap, or US$21.7m). Reported Earnings • Aug 13
First half 2023 earnings released: €4.25 loss per share (vs €2.23 profit in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: €4.25 loss per share (down from €2.23 profit in 1H 2022). Revenue: €125.7m (down 26% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €17.0m (down 291% from profit in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 48% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €3.78, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 88% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €6.19 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 03
Upcoming dividend of €0.40 per share at 8.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 July 2023. Payment date: 12 July 2023. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 76%, however this is supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 8.9%. Within top quartile of German dividend payers (4.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.9%). Buying Opportunity • Jun 20
Now 42% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 70%. The fair value is estimated to be €8.46, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 11%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.0% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 62% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 15
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to €9.92, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 70% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Mar 27
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: €0.53 (down from €4.69 in FY 2021). Revenue: €302.5m (down 8.8% from FY 2021). Net income: €2.10m (down 89% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 0.7% (down from 5.7% in FY 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 19% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 03
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to €17.05, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 54% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €32.49 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from €3.32 to €0.72 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €304.3m. Net income forecast to shrink 56% next year vs 13% decline forecast for Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €60.50 to €41.28. Share price fell 2.6% to €17.15 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €48.12 Down from €65.78, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 159% above last closing price of €18.60. Stock is down 72% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.32 for next year compared to €4.69 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 18
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 27% share price decline to €20.30, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 41% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €17.84 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €323.4m to €304.8m. EPS estimate also fell from €3.92 per share to €3.35 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 26% next year vs 1.9% decline forecast for Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €65.78 to €56.12. Share price fell 16% to €24.80 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €361.8m to €343.4m. EPS estimate also fell from €5.06 per share to €4.50 per share. Net income forecast to grow 1.1% next year vs 2.8% growth forecast for Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €78.45 to €70.78. Share price fell 29% to €26.30 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 27% share price decline to €26.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 24% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 16
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €2.23 (vs €2.17 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €2.23 (up from €2.17 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €169.2m (up 4.9% from 1H 2021). Net income: €8.90m (up 2.8% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 5.3% (down from 5.4% in 1H 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Aankondiging • Aug 11
HELMA Eigenheimbau Aktiengesellschaft Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year 2022 HELMA Eigenheimbau Aktiengesellschaft Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year 2022. The company reported that revenue is now expected to increase from EUR 331.5 million to EUR 360.0 million (previous forecast range: EUR 360 million to EUR 380 million) and EBT to increase from EUR 27.3 million to EUR 30.0 million (previous forecast range: EUR 30 million to EUR 33 million). Upcoming Dividend • Jun 27
Upcoming dividend of €1.72 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 July 2022. Payment date: 06 July 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.3%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (4.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.3%). Buying Opportunity • Mar 11
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 14%. The fair value is estimated to be €69.69, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.0% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.1% per annum over the last 3 years. Buying Opportunity • Feb 14
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 6.7%. The fair value is estimated to be €76.92, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.0% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.1% per annum over the last 3 years. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target increased to €85.63 Up from €79.92, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 30% above last closing price of €66.00. Stock is up 75% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €4.63 for next year compared to €3.84 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 16
Price target increased to €84.97 Up from €77.75, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of €69.00. Stock is up 101% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €2.17 (vs €1.13 in 1H 2020) The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €161.4m (up 41% from 1H 2020). Net income: €8.66m (up 92% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 5.4% (up from 3.9% in 1H 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 28
Upcoming dividend of €1.54 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 July 2021. Payment date: 07 July 2021. Trailing yield: 2.7%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.2%). Reported Earnings • Mar 26
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €3.84 (vs €4.04 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €274.0m (up 4.1% from FY 2019). Net income: €15.4m (down 4.8% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.6% (down from 6.1% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 08
Revenue behind estimates Revenue missed analyst estimates by 0.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 12%, compared to a 7.8% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Reported Earnings • Mar 08
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €3.84 (vs €4.04 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €274.0m (up 4.1% from FY 2019). Net income: €15.4m (down 4.8% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.6% (down from 6.1% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 08
New 90-day high: €51.80 The company is up 26% from its price of €41.00 on 08 December 2020. The German market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 18% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €44.04 per share. Price Target Changed • Mar 08
Price target raised to €70.58 Up from €61.70, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 36% above the current share price of €51.80. As of last close, the stock is up 36% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 28
New 90-day high: €48.80 The company is up 33% from its price of €36.60 on 30 October 2020. The German market is up 19% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 31% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €43.09 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 15
Price target raised to €61.70 Up from €54.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 38% above the current share price of €44.70. As of last close, the stock is up 9.6% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 12
New 90-day high: €43.10 The company is up 8.0% from its price of €40.00 on 14 October 2020. The German market is also up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it underperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €41.18 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 01
New 90-day high: €41.50 The company is up 18% from its price of €35.30 on 02 September 2020. The German market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 14% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €44.67 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 30
New 90-day high: €37.80 The company is up 4.0% from its price of €36.50 on 02 July 2020. The German market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 14% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €44.67 per share.