These 4 Measures Indicate That Noxopharm (ASX:NOX) Is Using Debt Extensively

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Noxopharm Limited (ASX:NOX) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

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When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Noxopharm

What Is Noxopharm's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2020 Noxopharm had AU$5.00m of debt, an increase on AU$3.93m, over one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds AU$7.10m in cash, so it actually has AU$2.10m net cash.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:NOX Debt to Equity History September 4th 2020

How Strong Is Noxopharm's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Noxopharm had liabilities of AU$6.69m falling due within a year, and liabilities of AU$508.8k due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$7.10m and AU$4.65m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has AU$4.55m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

This short term liquidity is a sign that Noxopharm could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Simply put, the fact that Noxopharm has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

We also note that Noxopharm improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive AU$3.6m. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Noxopharm will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Noxopharm may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last year, Noxopharm burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Summing up

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Noxopharm has net cash of AU$2.10m, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So although we see some areas for improvement, we're not too worried about Noxopharm's balance sheet. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 6 warning signs for Noxopharm (3 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Noxopharm might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About ASX:NOX

Noxopharm

A biotech company, engages in the discovering and developing treatments for cancer and inflammation, and mRNA vaccines in Australia.

Moderate risk and slightly overvalued.

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Hello,(I am a shareholder).I spent the summer investigating in whatever I was able to find in the press, the trustee, or legal, and comparing it to FS Benner's declaration/transcripts:press: MM has a tendancy to use facts, modify them and turn them the way they want: 100% of their claims against TPG0 is traçable factually, 80% is flawed and interpreted. Example are numerous: 11M loans banks to be paid seems right, but it has not been an issue at all, it has been paid in full. (and it happens all the time in every business...); the previous HR becoming a financial director in the article herself being attacked by TPG on the legal side; the wrong address of curator (if truly announced by TPG).Trustee: according to my research (which can be incomplete) no communication to the Nordic trustee (hereby, bond holders) has been done on a, indebtedness (late payment) > 1M€, which is their obligation by contract (clause 14.d - https://corporate.the-platform-group.com/bond/) => this is a sign of a huge lie and fraud, or the sign that there is no indebtedness > 1M€ over the whole TPG group.Legal: still awaiting for an answer, probable that I won't get it.VALUATIONYou can spent hours working the fundamentals, if they're flawed...the thesis falls.Anyway, I always substracts the badwill (that I consider non-current - you have it in the CFS) & non-controlling interests from my valuation:Earnings ~22MFCF ~40M€The financial statements are not the issue here, we are more on an cheap option on the sincerity of the accounts that a real valuation. Unfortunately, these are unverifiable elements, hence the low price./!\ Careful:the accounts are consolidated and skip the subsidiaries issues...Careful with the business model: TPG0 is a financial holding that acquire subsidiaries, hold the debt, and has no operations. 100% of the Cash Flow comes from subs' dividends => it is a risk here, more a plumber risk than an operational one, but nevertheless...The auditor is too small, and managed by the same firm than before, with 140K€/year commission => it's too low, nobody external really reviewed what Benner and his team are doing internallycapital increase do not go through the CFS, but through change in equity AND equity in the BSIf the equity stays low too long, the WACC increase will be unbearable (I have a 30% global, with a 118% on equity): diluting is expensive => TPG machine can stay broken for a while.Most of the people I talk with never saw this, while this is ESSENTIAL to Benner's business model.SEVERAL EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE:AEP is being audited by KPMG: if Benner plays the "we will propose KPMG to our shareholders BEOY", this can increase the trust in him significantly/KPMG (or other) to validate the 2026 IFRS accounts & having a word on HGB's: though still consolidated, at least we'll know...AEP being eventually acquired: while it carries a high integration risk due to its size, they talked about it so many times, that trust goes with it.Without this combination of event, the equity is doomed to stay at this level, IMO.Do not forget to also follow the bond: with TPG's announced safe harbor plan for buyback (25% of daily exchange), it is also interesting to check this illiquid and retail market: https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/bond/no0013256834-the-platform-group-ag-8-875-24-28?mic=XFRA

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