The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Experience Co Limited (ASX:EXP) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company’s debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Experience Co’s Debt?
As you can see below, Experience Co had AU$20.0m of debt at June 2019, down from AU$35.5m a year prior. However, it does have AU$4.80m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$15.2m.
How Healthy Is Experience Co’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Experience Co had liabilities of AU$17.4m due within a year, and liabilities of AU$32.3m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$4.80m as well as receivables valued at AU$9.76m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total AU$35.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit isn’t so bad because Experience Co is worth AU$147.3m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While Experience Co’s low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.85 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 2.5 last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Shareholders should be aware that Experience Co’s EBIT was down 68% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Experience Co’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Experience Co saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
To be frank both Experience Co’s conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Experience Co’s use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. In light of our reservations about the company’s balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.
Of course, if you’re the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don’t hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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