Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE), which is in the software business, and is based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$123 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$104. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Guidewire Software’s current trading price of US$111 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Guidewire Software’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Is Guidewire Software still cheap?
According to my valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 49%, trading at US$111 compared to my intrinsic value of $74.71. This means that the opportunity to buy Guidewire Software at a good price has disappeared! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that Guidewire Software’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Guidewire Software?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of Guidewire Software, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the upcoming, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? If you believe GWRE is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the risk from a negative growth outlook, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GWRE for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its true value, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Guidewire Software. You can find everything you need to know about Guidewire Software in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Guidewire Software, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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