If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. So after we looked into T.T (NSE:TTL), the trends above didn't look too great.
What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for T.T, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.089 = ₹197m ÷ (₹3.9b - ₹1.7b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).
So, T.T has an ROCE of 8.9%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 8.6%, it's still a low return by itself.
View our latest analysis for T.T
Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for T.T's ROCE against it's prior returns. If you want to delve into the historical earnings, revenue and cash flow of T.T, check out these free graphs here.
What Does the ROCE Trend For T.T Tell Us?
We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at T.T. To be more specific, the ROCE was 19% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on T.T becoming one if things continue as they have.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that T.T has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 44%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.The Key Takeaway
All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 28% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
One final note, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with T.T (including 1 which is doesn't sit too well with us) .
While T.T may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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About NSEI:TTL
Slight with mediocre balance sheet.