There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we’d want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it’s a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don’t think Embry Holdings (HKG:1388) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let’s have a look at why that may be.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it?
For those who don’t know, ROCE is a measure of a company’s yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Embry Holdings:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)
0.037 = HK$112m ÷ (HK$3.5b – HK$499m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2019).
So, Embry Holdings has an ROCE of 3.7%. In absolute terms, that’s a low return and it also under-performs the Luxury industry average of 11%.
View our latest analysis for Embry Holdings
While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you’re interested in investigating Embry Holdings’ past further, check out this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Are Returns Trending?
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Embry Holdings, we didn’t gain much confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 13%, but since then they’ve fallen to 3.7%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn’t moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
The Bottom Line On Embry Holdings’ ROCE
Bringing it all together, while we’re somewhat encouraged by Embry Holdings’ reinvestment in its own business, we’re aware that returns are shrinking. Since the stock has declined 66% over the last five years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. In any case, the stock doesn’t have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that’s what you’re looking for, we think you’d have more luck elsewhere.
Embry Holdings does have some risks though, and we’ve spotted 3 warning signs for Embry Holdings that you might be interested in.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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