Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ:HNRG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.6% to US$0.66 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Overall the results were a little better than the analyst was expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 4.4%to hit US$63m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the consensus from Hallador Energy’s lone analyst is for revenues of US$264.3m in 2020, which would reflect an uneasy 9.1% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Prior to the latest earnings, the analyst was forecasting revenues of US$259.7m in 2020, and did not provide an earnings per share estimate. It looks like the latest results have met expectations and confirmed that the business is performing in line with expectations, given there’s been no real changes in the new revenue estimates.
The average price target fell 20% to US$4.00, withthe analyst clearly having become less optimistic about Hallador Energy’sprospects following its latest earnings.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hallador Energy’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it’s the idea that Hallador Energy’sdecline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall 9.1% next year, topping off a historical decline of 1.7% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the wider industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 8.4% next year. So it’s pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analyst also expect Hallador Energy to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The clear take away from these updates is that the analyst made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
One Hallador Energy broker/analyst has provided estimates out to 2022, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 4 warning signs for Hallador Energy (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
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