Even the best investor on earth makes unsuccessful investments. But serious investors should think long and hard about avoiding extreme losses. It must have been painful to be a Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX:AOA) shareholder over the last year, since the stock price plummeted 79% in that time. That’d be enough to make even the strongest stomachs churn. We note that it has not been easy for shareholders over three years, either; the share price is down 33% in that time.
Ausmon Resources hasn’t yet reported any revenue yet, so it’s as much a business idea as an actual business. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren’t funding it. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Ausmon Resources will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. The is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Ausmon Resources has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.
Ausmon Resources had net cash of AU$752k when it last reported (December 2018). That’s not too bad but management may have to think about raising capital or taking on debt, unless the company is close to breaking even. We’d venture that shareholders are concerned about the need for more capital, because the share price has dropped 79% in the last year. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Ausmon Resources’s cash and debt levels have changed over time.
In reality it’s hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I’d like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 11% in the last year, Ausmon Resources shareholders lost 79%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 15% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.