While Radius Gold Inc. (CVE:RDU) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn’t had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 13% in the last quarter. But don’t let that distract from the very nice return generated over three years. In fact, the company’s share price bested the return of its market index in that time, posting a gain of 40%.
With just CA$47,960 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don’t think the market considers Radius Gold to have proven its business plan. As a result, we think it’s unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, investors may be hoping that Radius Gold finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.
We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. The is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt.
Radius Gold has plenty of cash in the bank, with net cash sitting at CA$7.3m, when it last reported (September 2018). That allows management to focus on growing the business, and not worry too much about raising capital. And with the share price up 12% per year, over 3 years, the market is focussed on that blue sky potential. The image belows shows how Radius Gold’s balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.
In reality it’s hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. One thing you can do is check if company insiders are buying shares. It’s often positive if so, assuming the buying is sustained and meaningful. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 3.4% in the last year, Radius Gold shareholders lost 4.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3.4% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.