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Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of ATA Inc. (NASDAQ:ATAI) by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company’s last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥14.5m||CN¥15.7m||CN¥16.8m||CN¥17.8m||CN¥18.6m||CN¥19.4m||CN¥20.1m||CN¥20.8m||CN¥21.5m||CN¥22.2m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 11.32%||Est @ 8.74%||Est @ 6.94%||Est @ 5.67%||Est @ 4.79%||Est @ 4.17%||Est @ 3.74%||Est @ 3.44%||Est @ 3.22%||Est @ 3.08%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.73%||CN¥13.4||CN¥13.6||CN¥13.5||CN¥13.2||CN¥12.8||CN¥12.4||CN¥12.0||CN¥11.5||CN¥11.0||CN¥10.5|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= CN¥123.9m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥22m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (7.7% – 2.7%) = CN¥455m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = CN¥CN¥455m ÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10 = CN¥216.06m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥339.96m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate in the company’s reported currency of CN¥14.7. However, ATAI’s primary listing is in China, and 1 share of ATAI in CNY represents 0.145 ( CNY/ USD) share of NasdaqGM:ATAI, so the intrinsic value per share in USD is $2.14. Compared to the current share price of $2.45, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at ATA as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.840. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For ATA, There are three essential factors you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does ATAI have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ATAI? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQ every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.