Last Update 20 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 12%

LVO: Advertising Partnerships And Buybacks Will Drive Future Upside Potential

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for LiveOne to $12.00 from $10.75, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, discount rate and future P/E that align with recent Street research price target increases.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research, including the updated price target of $12.00, provides a mixed but useful framework for thinking about LiveOne's risk and reward. Here is how bullish and cautious analysts are lining up around the new fair value.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to the higher price target as consistent with a view that LiveOne can support a richer future P/E, given their updated assumptions on the earnings power implied by current operations.
The revised target is framed around revenue growth assumptions that, in their view, justify paying more for the stock today without stretching valuation inputs beyond those seen in recent Street work.
Supportive commentary highlights that the updated discount rate used in models is aligned with peers in similar niches, which helps underpin the raised fair value estimate of $12.00.
Some analysts argue that recent research moves toward higher targets signal improving confidence in execution against current plans, which feeds directly into their valuation frameworks.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on the fact that the higher target still depends heavily on assumptions around future revenue growth, which they view as a key execution swing factor rather than a given.
There is concern that the future P/E embedded in recent models may prove demanding if LiveOne does not deliver the earnings profile implied by those targets.
More cautious views highlight that even with a refined discount rate, small changes in this input can move fair value estimates meaningfully, which adds sensitivity to the thesis.
Some also flag that the clustering of recent target revisions around higher levels does not remove risks tied to competition, cost control, or capital needs, all of which can affect how justifiable a $12.00 fair value looks over time.

What's in the News

LiveOne reported that, from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, it repurchased 2,900 shares for US$0.01 million, bringing total repurchases under the November 10, 2022 buyback to 335,631 shares (3.71%) for US$4.35 million (company filing).
The company issued earnings guidance for the third quarter ended December 31, 2025, targeting revenue of US$19.9 million, and for the nine months ended the same date, targeting revenue of US$57.9 million (company guidance).
LiveOne renewed its audio advertising partnership with DAX, expanding the exclusive contract to include DAX US selling new in-car audio inventory to reach listeners during driving and commuting periods (company announcement).
The company announced a multiyear renewal of its partnership with Telly, which offers an integrated dual-screen audio experience and access to millions of songs, with management highlighting LiveOne usage on Telly up more than 200% over 90 days and average listening sessions higher by double digits (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Raised from $10.75 to $12.00. This reflects a moderate step up in the central valuation anchor used in the model.
Discount Rate: Adjusted slightly lower from 9.66% to 9.50%. This modestly increases the present value of projected cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Assumption moved meaningfully higher from 19.61% to 28.88%, indicating a stronger top line outlook in the updated framework.
Net Profit Margin: Kept effectively unchanged at around 10.26%, with the update moving marginally from 10.26% to 10.26%.
Future P/E: Trimmed slightly from 13.04x to 12.96x, suggesting a similar but fractionally more conservative earnings multiple applied to future earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Expanding B2B partnerships, proprietary tech, and exclusive content is driving scalability, operational efficiency, and diverse, high-margin revenue opportunities.
Enhanced balance sheet and innovative event monetization position the company to capitalize on digital entertainment's global growth and shifting consumer models.
Heavy cost cuts, uncertain B2B deal execution, volatile crypto strategy, and intensifying industry competition pose significant threats to sustainable growth and earnings stability.

Catalysts

About LiveOne

A digital media company, engages in the acquisition, distribution, and monetization of live music events, Internet radio, podcasting/vodcasting and music-related membership, and streaming and video content.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company is entering the ramp-up phase of multiple large-scale B2B partnerships, including a high-profile Fortune 500 white-label deal with access to 30+ million paying members and a $16.5 million Amazon contract, which could drive significant subscriber and topline revenue growth starting in the next 2–3 quarters.
Leveraging proprietary data and AI-driven content curation is enabling LiveOne to cut operating costs (31% staff reduction), improve content delivery, and optimize advertising and user conversion, positioning the company for improved net margins and scalability as digital content consumption expands globally.
Rapid acceleration and monetization of PodcastOne and exclusive content-now with three TV shows sold and 20+ under negotiation-creates diversified, high-margin revenue streams and ongoing optionality from growing demand for premium, personalized, and cross-platform entertainment.
The strengthened balance sheet (over $20 million in cash, elimination of $14 million in short-term liabilities) enhances operational flexibility and strategic optionality to capture growth opportunities stemming from the ongoing shift to digital and direct-to-consumer entertainment models.
Launching new live and hybrid events with strong built-in influencer/social media reach (Reality Olympics, Social Gloves legacy) and innovative monetization tools (NFTs, digital assets, pay-per-view) supports elevated ARPU and further unlocks opportunities from fan engagement, directly impacting revenue growth and future earnings.

LiveOne Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming LiveOne's revenue will grow by 11.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that LiveOne will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate LiveOne's profit margin will increase from -22.3% to the average US Entertainment industry of 9.4% in 3 years.
If LiveOne's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $13.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.09) by about September 2028, up from $-22.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Entertainment industry at 38.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.85%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

LiveOne Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

LiveOne's recent dramatic staff reductions (31% decrease) and further planned cuts, including in the Slacker technology team, carry risk that operational efficiencies through AI may not fully compensate for lost human expertise, potentially limiting innovation, user experience, and jeopardizing successful execution of its large pipeline of 75 B2B deals-putting pressure on future revenue growth and operational margins.
Heavy reliance on major new B2B partnerships that are in early or "soft launch" stages, with significant revenue contribution ($50 million forecast) not expected until later quarters, increases near
and long-term uncertainty around sustained revenue growth and the ability to fully replace lost Tesla revenues, increasing the risk of revenue and earnings volatility if new deals underperform or are delayed.
Expanding investment in volatile, non-core assets such as a Bitcoin treasury strategy-with pledged future exposure and yield-generation dependence-exposes the company's balance sheet to cryptocurrency market swings and regulatory uncertainty, which could negatively impact net asset value and increase earnings volatility.
The company operates in an industry where large, well-capitalized tech giants and entertainment conglomerates (such as Amazon, Spotify, Disney, and others mentioned on the call) are rapidly consolidating, introducing increased marketing/pricing pressure and making it more difficult for LiveOne to secure key partnerships or premium content, threatening market share, subscription growth, and ARPU.
LiveOne's flywheel strategy and aggressive expansion into proprietary content, live events, and Web3/NFT-based monetization is highly contingent on unpredictable factors such as hit-driven television/content sales, NFT demand cycles, and regulatory shifts in digital currencies-raising the specter of inconsistent cash flow and revenue recognition, with potential margin compression if initiatives fail to scale as projected.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $1.9 for LiveOne based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $2.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.2.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $139.6 million, earnings will come to $13.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.9%.
Given the current share price of $0.5, the analyst price target of $1.9 is 73.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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