Last Update 11 Feb 26
ADAP.Y: Executive Transition And Deregistration Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Adaptimmune Therapeutics to $1.50, keeping it aligned with their fair value estimate as they factor in an updated discount rate of 13.43%, steady high revenue growth assumptions near 46.25%, a slightly lower projected profit margin close to 16.05%, and a marginally higher future P/E expectation near 19.36.
What's in the News
- Adaptimmune Therapeutics plans executive changes effective November 14, 2025, with Christopher Hill moving from Chief Financial Officer to Chief Executive Officer and joining the Board, following the departure of Adrian Rawcliffe in connection with a company restructuring (Key Developments).
- Hill is expected to continue serving as CFO while taking on the CEO role, concentrating responsibility for both financial operations and overall leadership in a single executive (Key Developments).
- The company highlighted its transaction with USWM CT, LLC, a subsidiary of US WorldMeds Partners, LLC. This agreement allows TECELRA to continue to be made available to patients while transition work related to TECELRA, lete cel and uza cel has been underway since closing on July 31, 2025 (Key Developments).
- Adaptimmune Therapeutics filed a Form 15 with the Securities and Exchange Commission to voluntarily deregister its American Depositary Shares under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Kept steady at $1.50, with no change between the prior and updated estimate.
- Discount Rate: Adjusted slightly lower from 13.46% to 13.43%, indicating a small tweak in the assumed risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: Held effectively unchanged, with the assumption remaining around 46.25%.
- Net Profit Margin: Reduced from about 16.96% to roughly 16.05%, reflecting a more cautious outlook on future profitability.
- Future P/E: Raised from about 18.34x to roughly 19.36x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on expected earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Rapid treatment network expansion and successful TECELRA launch are driving significant future revenue growth and patient access.
- Strategic cost reductions and successful manufacturing are enhancing net margins and paving the way towards long-term profitability.
- Financial stability risks arise as Adaptimmune pauses key preclinical programs, lacks cash for profitability, and faces uncertainties in U.S.-focused TECELRA sales.
Catalysts
About Adaptimmune Therapeutics- A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, provides novel cell therapies primarily to cancer patients in the United States and the United Kingdom.
- The TECELRA launch has shown promising initial uptake, with a rapidly increasing number of patients being treated and apheresed. This momentum is expected to significantly drive future revenue growth.
- With 20 out of 30 planned treatment centers already operational, the network expansion is ahead of schedule and should contribute to accelerating patient access and treatment volumes, improving future revenue potential.
- Strategic cost reductions, including pausing investments in preclinical programs, are anticipated to reduce cash burn, thereby improving net margins and paving the way towards profitability by 2027.
- The upcoming launch of lete-cel in 2027, using the existing commercial infrastructure from TECELRA, is expected to create operational synergies and efficiencies, enhancing net margins and revenue growth as part of the larger sarcoma franchise.
- Successful manufacturing with a 100% success rate and no capacity bottlenecks ensures the ability to meet anticipated demand, supporting stable revenue growth and maintaining a consistent supply chain, which should positively impact both net margins and earnings.
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Adaptimmune Therapeutics's revenue will decrease by 10.3% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts are not forecasting that Adaptimmune Therapeutics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Adaptimmune Therapeutics's profit margin will increase from -39.8% to the average US Biotechs industry of 15.9% in 3 years.
- If Adaptimmune Therapeutics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $20.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.08) by about May 2028, up from $-70.8 million today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 20.4x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.65% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.29%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The company is pausing spending on its preclinical programs targeting PRAME and CD70, which could limit future pipeline development and impact long-term revenue growth.
- Adaptimmune is actively exploring partnerships and strategic options to ensure financial stability, indicating potential reliance on external financing, which could impact net margins and shareholder value.
- The company plans to achieve profitability by 2027, but has acknowledged that it does not have sufficient cash on hand to reach this goal, highlighting risks around operating cash flow and financial stability.
- The potential to expand into ex-U.S. markets is recognized, but the company is currently focused on the U.S. market without established timeframes for international commercialization, potentially limiting immediate revenue opportunities.
- While the TECELRA launch shows initial momentum, the company has not provided specific annual sales guidance or detailed the level of patient uptake required to meet its financial targets, creating uncertainty around future earnings projections.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $1.706 for Adaptimmune Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $3.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $128.4 million, earnings will come to $20.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.3%.
- Given the current share price of $0.26, the analyst price target of $1.71 is 84.6% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.