Last Update 09 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 3.65%

WWW: Higher Value Brand Mix Will Support Margins Despite Upcoming Tariff Pressure

Narrative update

The analyst price target for Wolverine World Wide has been trimmed by about US$0.90, reflecting analysts' concerns about slower growth in key brands, upcoming tariff pressure, and a slightly lower fair value and profit margin outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates on Wolverine World Wide point to a more cautious stance overall, with several firms trimming price targets and some shifting to more neutral ratings. Even so, there are still some constructive elements in the commentary alongside the concerns.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts continue to see upside potential at current levels, as reflected in at least one Buy rating that is maintained even after a lower price target. This suggests they still view the risk or reward as acceptable.
The latest earnings results cited by one bullish analyst are described as topping above consensus estimates, which supports the view that execution against existing expectations has been solid.
There is an investment thesis built around a mix shift toward higher value brands, with the goal of structurally improving Wolverine World Wide's growth and margin profile over time. If executed well, this could support a higher valuation.
Conservative guidance is framed by bullish analysts as leaving room for upside if management can deliver better than their own cautious outlook. This could help sentiment if future updates compare favorably with that guidance.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have downgraded the stock from more positive ratings to Neutral or Hold and lowered price targets into the mid to high teens. This signals reduced confidence in near term upside versus prior expectations.
Concerns that the shares could "stay in the penalty box" reflect worries about additional negative surprises, which can cap valuation multiples until investors gain more clarity on the earnings path.
Commentary highlights slow or modest growth in key brands such as Merrell and ongoing challenges at Wolverine and Sweaty Betty, raising questions about the company’s ability to drive broad based growth across its portfolio.
Channel checks pointing to slowing Saucony sales growth and softer momentum in certain lifestyle products, especially men's shoes, suggest potential pressure on both revenue and inventory management if supply continues to exceed demand.
Several bearish analysts stress that, unlike some peers, a significant portion of Wolverine World Wide's tariff pressure is still ahead. This could weigh on margins and limit earnings power if not adequately offset by pricing or cost savings.

What's in the News

The company reported no share repurchases from June 29, 2025 to September 27, 2025, completing the previously announced buyback with 0 shares repurchased for $0 million under the May 8, 2024 authorization (Key Developments).
For fourth quarter 2025, management issued revenue guidance of US$498 million to US$513 million. The midpoint implies approximately 2.2% year over year growth and 0.5% on a constant currency basis, with an outlook for high single digit Active Group revenue growth and a low double digit decline in Work Group revenue on a constant currency basis (Key Developments).
For full year 2025, the company guided to revenue of US$1.855b to US$1.87b. This is described as approximately 6.4% growth at the midpoint, or 5.6% on a constant currency basis compared with 2024 ongoing business, with Active Group revenue expected to grow low double digits on a constant currency basis (Key Developments).
Full year 2025 diluted EPS guidance stands at US$1.08 to US$1.13, with net earnings expected in a range of US$91 million to US$95 million and net earnings used for diluted EPS of US$88 million to US$92 million (Key Developments).
Merrell announced a collaboration with Gramicci to launch the Merrell Moab 2 Siren x Gramicci on October 24, 2025, offering two colorways and positioning the product for use on trails, rock faces, and in urban settings, while highlighting both brands' outdoor heritage (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from US$24.33 to US$23.44 per share, indicating a modestly lower fundamental assessment.
Discount Rate: edged up from 10.16% to 10.19%, implying a marginally higher required return in the model.
Revenue Growth: eased from 5.49% to 5.43%, reflecting a slightly more cautious view on top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: adjusted down from 7.43% to 7.34%, pointing to a small reduction in expected profitability.
Future P/E: lowered from 17.32x to 16.94x, suggesting a modestly more conservative multiple being applied to projected earnings.

International market expansion and digital transformation are driving revenue growth, diversification, and higher-margin sales, while aligning with wellness and outdoor activity trends.
Portfolio optimization, supply chain improvements, and continued brand investment are strengthening market position, protecting margins, and supporting long-term earnings growth.
Heavy dependence on wholesale channels, slow legacy brand growth, and high fixed costs expose Wolverine to risks from market shifts and potential margin erosion.

Catalysts

About Wolverine World Wide

Designs, manufactures, sources, markets, licenses, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Wolverine is capitalizing on growing demand for branded footwear globally by expanding Saucony and Merrell into new international markets and activating key cities (e.g., Tokyo, Paris, London), which is expected to boost revenue growth and diversify geographic exposure.
The company is executing a digital transformation-prioritizing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, enhancing digital experiences, and launching branded apps (e.g., Sweaty Betty in the UK)-to drive higher-margin sales and improve earnings quality.
Heightened consumer focus on health, wellness, and outdoor activity is fueling demand for athletic and outdoor footwear; Wolverine's innovation across core franchises (e.g., Saucony Endorphin, Merrell Moab Speed 2) and alignment with these trends support sustainable top-line and margin expansion.
Strategic portfolio optimization and ongoing supply chain improvements (dual-sourcing, better inventory management, targeted price increases) provide resilience against tariff impacts, protect gross margins, and strengthen the company's earnings outlook.
Consistent investment in brand-building and marketing, coupled with a robust pipeline of new product innovation and lifestyle collaborations, aims to increase market share and customer loyalty, directly supporting long-term revenue, gross margin, and earnings growth.

Wolverine World Wide Earnings and Revenue Growth

Wolverine World Wide Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Wolverine World Wide's revenue will grow by 6.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.6% today to 8.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $189.9 million (and earnings per share of $2.19) by about September 2028, up from $83.9 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 30.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Luxury industry at 20.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.48% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.29%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Wolverine World Wide Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on wholesale channel (still 75% of the business) rather than rapidly scaling direct-to-consumer may expose Wolverine to risks from continued retail consolidation, changing consumer preferences, and decreased pricing power, which could constrain future revenue growth and net margins.
Ongoing macroeconomic volatility and unpredictable global trade policies, particularly tariffs and shifting sourcing countries, create uncertainty; the company must continually mitigate these risks, and any inability to do so could result in significant cost of goods increases and sustained pressure on net earnings.
Growth in core brands, especially Saucony and Merrell, has recently been driven in part by expanded store/distribution "door" count-a "timing shift" and distribution expansion that will soon be annualized-implying growth rates may decelerate and potentially pressure top-line revenue and operating leverage in the coming years.
Legacy brands like Sweaty Betty and the Work Group remain laggards with only incremental sequential improvement and ongoing "work to do"-slow progress here may weigh on overall portfolio growth and brand equity, undermining diversified revenue expansion and margin enhancement.
Elevated SG&A and marketing spend to reinvigorate brands (with a strategic pivot to higher-funnel/awareness activity) increases fixed cost base and introduces risk if short-term sales lifts do not persist; should demand weaken or promotions return, operating margins and earnings recovery could stagnate or reverse.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $32.778 for Wolverine World Wide based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $36.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $29.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.2 billion, earnings will come to $189.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.3%.
Given the current share price of $31.39, the analyst price target of $32.78 is 4.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Wolverine World Wide?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Global Footwear Expansion And Digital Transformation Will Unlock New Markets