Last Update 26 Feb 26

SPIR: Higher Future P/E Assumptions Will Support A Stronger Bullish Outlook

The analyst price target for Spire Global has been raised by $5, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions around the company’s future P/E multiple as the key driver behind this change.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the higher target price as better aligned with their updated P/E assumptions, suggesting they now see more value in the equity relative to their prior framework.
The revised P/E multiple signals increased confidence that the company can support a richer valuation if it executes against its current business plan.
Supportive commentary around the new target implies that analysts see a clearer path for the company to translate its operations into earnings that can justify the higher multiple.
Bullish analysts point to the updated P/E as a reflection of improved conviction in the durability of the business model rather than a short term trading call.

Bearish Takeaways

More cautious analysts may see the higher P/E assumption as leaving less room for error if the company falls short of earnings expectations.
The shift in valuation framework adds pressure on management execution, since any delays or setbacks could weigh more heavily on the share price at a higher multiple.
Some investors may question whether the revised P/E fully reflects operational and industry risks, which could lead to volatility if sentiment changes.

What's in the News

Spire was selected by AiDASH to supply advanced weather intelligence for AI driven vegetation and outage prediction tools used by North American electric utilities, aiming to support grid resilience and wildfire risk management (Client Announcements).
The company successfully launched nine satellites on SpaceX's Twilight mission, including its Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder demonstrator for weather forecasting and eight satellites for IoT provider Myriota to support global IoT connectivity (Product Related Announcements).
Spire received a place on the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ contract, which has a ceiling of US$151b and covers a wide range of potential defense focused capabilities using the company's radio frequency data and space reconnaissance services (Client Announcements).
The company issued earnings guidance for Q4 2025 and full year 2025, with expected revenue of US$14,800,000 to US$16,800,000 for the quarter and US$70,500,000 to US$72,500,000 for the year, alongside expected losses from operations and net loss per share ranges for both periods (Corporate Guidance).
Spire expanded its AI driven Power Generation Forecasts into the ERCOT market in Texas, offering satellite informed wind and solar power generation forecasts to utilities, traders, grid operators, and renewable developers, building on existing use in several European markets (Client Announcements).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: $13.70 remains unchanged, with no adjustment to the modeled fair value per share in this update.
Discount Rate: risen slightly from 7.21% to 7.21%, reflecting a marginal tweak to the required return used in the analysis.
Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at 6.72%, indicating only a very small numerical adjustment to the modeled growth rate.
Net Profit Margin: effectively unchanged at 4.18%, with only a minor rounding level shift in the projected margin.
Future P/E: fallen slightly from 171.60x to 167.34x, pointing to a modestly lower multiple assumption applied to future earnings.

Expansion into real-time Earth observation and analytics, along with major government contracts, supports stable and recurring revenue growth across multiple verticals.
Streamlined operations and new proprietary technologies improve product differentiation, enabling margin expansion and greater investment in long-term innovation.
Selling the maritime business increases reliance on unproven segments amid operational, revenue, and cash flow risks in a competitive, government-dependent, and increasingly commoditized satellite data market.

Catalysts

About Spire Global

Provides subscription-based data, insights, predictive analytics, and related project-based services worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Growing government and commercial demand for high-frequency, real-time Earth observation data-driven by increased climate change monitoring, global security needs, and expanded ESG mandates-positions Spire to capture larger and more recurring revenue streams from weather, defense, and scientific agencies worldwide.
Rapid development and deployment of proprietary technologies such as the Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder, radio occultation, and AI-powered analytics enhance product differentiation and stickiness, enabling higher pricing and improving gross and net margins as Spire penetrates new verticals.
Reduced financial risk and operational flexibility following the sale of the maritime business and elimination of debt improves Spire's capacity to invest in R&D and business development, likely supporting sustained revenue growth and improving cash flow stability.
Strengthening relationships with major government agencies (e.g., NASA, NOAA, ESA) and long-term, high-value contracts (e.g., the 8-figure, 5-year space services deal) provide visibility into future revenue growth and potential margin expansion as contract momentum accelerates.
The proliferation of IoT and connected devices, combined with greater global supply chain complexity, increases demand for Spire's high-quality, multi-mission satellite data network, driving higher ARPU and supporting a scalable, subscription-based revenue model.

Spire Global Earnings and Revenue Growth

Spire Global Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Spire Global's revenue will decrease by 4.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Spire Global will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Spire Global's profit margin will increase from -98.4% to the average US Professional Services industry of 7.1% in 3 years.
If Spire Global's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $6.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about September 2028, up from $-97.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 124.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Professional Services industry at 26.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Spire Global Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The recent sale of Spire's entire maritime business eliminates a major historical revenue stream and could reduce diversification, making the company more dependent on new and unproven areas like space services and weather, which introduces revenue concentration risk and could negatively impact overall revenue growth if those segments underperform.
Despite operational improvements and a strengthened balance sheet, Spire's guidance indicates a steep revenue ramp is required in the second half of the year to meet targets, leaving little room for execution error, contract delays, or customer deferrals-which could lead to revenue shortfalls and missed earnings expectations in the near-to-medium term.
Spire's long-term recurring revenue model is dependent on continued expansion of large government contracts (e.g. NOAA, NASA, ESA), but budget cycles, shifting government procurement priorities, and lengthy approval timelines introduce significant uncertainty and variability to revenue visibility, threatening both revenue stability and margin predictability.
The increasingly competitive landscape for satellite-based data-with strong rivals (Tomorrow.io, HawkEye 360, Unseenlabs), as well as large aerospace incumbents-poses pressure on contract values and margins; and as many providers expand capabilities (e.g., microwave sounders, RF geolocation), basic data services risk commoditization, placing downward pressure on pricing and long-term gross margins.
Ongoing operational and cash management risks remain: The company anticipates ending the year with substantially lower cash, continues to face elevated costs (accounting transitions, new market entries), and is only cautiously optimistic about generating positive operating cash flow, suggesting persistent cash burn could force future financing or share dilution, undermining EPS and shareholder value.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.25 for Spire Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $87.2 million, earnings will come to $6.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 124.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $8.82, the analyst price target of $16.25 is 45.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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