Last Update 07 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 14%

BARK: Lowered Price Assumptions Will Set Up Potential Upside Repricing

Analysts have trimmed their price target on BARK from about $2.33 to $2.00, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates, and future P/E expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on BARK focuses on how updated expectations around growth and profitability flow through to a lower price target of about US$2.00, with both supportive and cautious themes emerging.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still see scope for BARK to execute on its existing revenue base, suggesting that the lower target reflects more measured assumptions rather than a loss of confidence in the business model.
The revised target embeds updated P/E expectations, which bullish analysts view as giving investors a clearer, more grounded entry point if the company delivers on margins and cost control.
Some bulls point out that a US$2.00 target can still imply upside from recent trading levels if BARK hits its operational goals, so they focus on execution against a now more conservative bar.
By trimming targets instead of withdrawing coverage, bullish analysts signal that BARK remains investable, with valuation still tied to the company’s ability to convert revenue into consistent earnings.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that lowering the target by US$0.50 underlines concerns about the pace and reliability of revenue growth, especially if customer acquisition or retention trends soften.
The updated assumptions around profit margins suggest some worry that cost pressures or mix shifts could keep earnings below earlier expectations, which weighs on P/E support.
More cautious views also reflect a reduced willingness to pay high multiples for future growth, pointing to the risk that BARK may need stronger execution before the stock can support a higher valuation.
Overall, the lower target signals that bearish analysts see a narrower margin of safety, with less room for disappointment on both top line and profitability before the equity case looks stretched.

What's in the News

A group including RRE Ventures LLC, Resolute Ventures, Inc., Matt Meeker, Founders Circle Capital, LLC and Ironbound Partners Fund LLC submitted a preliminary, non binding proposal to acquire an additional 67.85% stake in BARK, Inc. for about US$130 million, offering US$0.90 per share in cash for shares they do not already own (Key Developments).
The proposed acquisition would be funded with a mix of debt and equity, and relates to shares not currently owned by members of Great Dane Ventures, LLC (Key Developments).
BARK's Board has formed a special committee of independent and disinterested directors to review the proposal, with plans to hire independent financial and legal advisors, and has stated there is no assurance a definitive offer, agreement, or transaction will result (Key Developments).
BARK, Inc. issued earnings guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, expecting total revenue between US$101.0 million and US$104.0 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Trimmed from about US$2.33 to US$2.00 per share, a reduction of roughly US$0.33 in the modeled price level.
Discount Rate: Adjusted from 9.60% to about 9.01%, a small shift in the rate used to discount future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Updated from roughly 1.43% to about 4.21%, indicating a higher modeled growth rate in the new assumptions.
Profit Margin: Revised from about 4.75% to roughly 4.94%, a modest change in expected profitability.
Future P/E: Reset from about 20.80x to roughly 18.16x, reflecting a lower multiple applied to projected earnings.

Premium product adoption, expanded retail presence, and data-driven personalization are increasing customer retention, cross-sell potential, and average order value for sustained growth.
Operational efficiencies and new high-margin services are driving margin expansion, improved profitability, and enhanced revenue diversification for future earnings strength.
Elevated tariff risks, intense competition, and unproven diversification efforts threaten margin stability and cast doubt on sustainable revenue and earnings growth.

Catalysts

About BARK

A dog-centric company, provides products, services, and content for dogs.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Growing adoption of premium offerings such as Super Chewer, combined with effective customer acquisition and retention on lower marketing spend, points to increasing average order value and improved DTC gross margins-supporting future earnings growth and margin expansion.
Expansion into consumables ("BARK in the Belly") available across both DTC and a broadened retail/commercial partner network (Amazon, Chewy, Walmart, Costco, Target, and brick-and-mortar) indicates accelerating revenue diversification, higher cross-sell opportunities, and a larger total addressable market-likely to drive top-line growth and improve revenue visibility.
The BARK Air service-though still early-shows strong customer demand for premium, customized dog travel, reinforcing BARK's ability to launch new, value-added verticals; this creates potential for high-margin recurring revenue additions over time.
Operational improvements and proactive supply chain/logistics management (cost reduction, diversification, and tariff mitigation) have driven record DTC gross margin performance; these structural changes are expected to enhance operating leverage and support sustainable EBITDA and net margin improvements going forward.
Leveraging proprietary customer and pet data on a unified Shopify platform enables more personalized recommendations, better upsell/cross-sell, and a stickier subscription base, which bodes well for higher customer lifetime value, retention rates, and long-term earnings power.

BARK Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BARK's revenue will grow by 1.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that BARK will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate BARK's profit margin will increase from -6.3% to the average US Specialty Retail industry of 4.7% in 3 years.
If BARK's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $23.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.15) by about September 2028, up from $-29.9 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 19.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.34% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.6%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BARK Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing tariff volatility and unpredictable trade policy changes, particularly affecting the Commerce segment with recent tariffs as high as 145%, may continue to compress gross margins and cause earnings volatility if not managed effectively.
Heavy reliance on continued strong subscriber retention and new customer acquisition for premium Super Chewer subscriptions; any slowdown in these trends (due to broader consumer discretionary pullback or market saturation) could negatively impact recurring revenue and net margins.
Increased competition and margin pressure in retail and e-commerce channels (Amazon, Chewy, Walmart, etc.), combined with possible retailer shelf reset timing issues, can lead to inconsistent revenue growth and reduced profitability as BARK expands beyond D2C.
While diversification initiatives like BARK Air and the BARK in the Belly consumables line show early promise, their contribution to total revenue remains small and unproven long term-failure to scale could limit future earnings upside and overall revenue growth potential.
Adjusted EBITDA remains only modestly positive with highly cautious forward guidance due to ongoing macro uncertainty, tariff risk, and supplier transitions; lack of full-year guidance and negative-to-breakeven EBITDA outlook for Q2 may indicate ongoing challenges to sustained margin and earnings expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $2.333 for BARK based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $3.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $2.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $491.3 million, earnings will come to $23.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.6%.
Given the current share price of $0.87, the analyst price target of $2.33 is 62.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Expansion Into Consumables And Air Service Will Widen Market Potential