Last Update 21 Apr 26

Fair value Decreased 1.48%

SMR: DOE Fuel Support And ENTRA1 Progress Will Shape Future Commercialization

NuScale Power's analyst price target has been trimmed by about $0.30 to $20.42 as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate and modestly lower assumed profit margins, while still reflecting ongoing, lengthy commercialization timelines highlighted in recent research.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on NuScale Power reflects a mixed backdrop where price targets are being reset, yet several firms still see room for value creation if the company executes on its commercialization plans and funding strategy.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to NuScale Power's ongoing progress toward commercialization, highlighting that projects such as RoPower and ENTRA1/TVA are moving forward, even if the path to a Final Investment Decision, or FID, remains lengthy. They see this as supportive of longer term growth potential.
Some research points to optimism around NuScale Power's commercialization prospects and long term potential despite references to near term headwinds. This supports the idea that a portion of the current valuation debate is around timing and execution rather than the concept of the business model.
NuScale Power's reported US$1.3b liquidity position at the close of 2025, supported by US$750m in at the market, or ATM, proceeds and a new US$1b ATM program, is viewed by bullish analysts as an important foundation for funding development and project milestones without relying solely on more dilutive options.
At least one upgrade to a more positive rating, even with a reduced price target, suggests that some analysts see the recent reset in expectations as creating a more balanced risk reward profile if NuScale Power can deliver on commercialization and project execution.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are trimming price targets, in some cases sharply, as they factor in longer commercialization timelines, lengthy processes to FID and the risk that project milestones may take time to translate into cash flows. All of these factors weigh on valuation.
Concerns around near term headwinds, including active share sales by a major shareholder and potential pressure from ATM activity, feed into a more cautious view that additional capital raising could affect the share base and investor sentiment.
Some research maintains cautious or negative ratings even as price targets are reset lower, signalling ongoing worries about execution risk, timing of project commitments and the possibility that current valuation still embeds meaningful expectations for future growth.
The repeated pattern of reduced price targets across several firms points to a reassessment of assumed profit margins and risk levels. Bearish analysts see this as justification for more conservative fair value estimates until there is clearer evidence of project conversion and revenue scale.

What's in the News

The U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing an initiative that would support the nuclear fuel supply chain, which is relevant for small modular reactor developers such as NuScale Power (CNBC report).
NuScale Power and Ebara Elliott Energy launched a research program to develop and field test a commercial-scale high temperature steam compressor that aims to link NuScale Power Modules with petrochemical plants requiring process heat. Compressor completion is targeted in 2027, and field test candidates are now being sought.
Framatome and NuScale Power expanded their partnership to use Framatome’s European facilities for fuel fabrication and issued notice for the Richland, Washington facility to qualify and produce at least 444 fuel assemblies for NuScale’s first U.S. customer as early as 2030, using NuScale’s NRC approved SMR fuel technology.
NuScale Power filed a US$1 billion at-the-market follow-on equity offering for its Class A common stock and withdrew a previous US$750 million at-the-market follow-on equity offering.
A class action lawsuit, Truedson v. NuScale Power Corporation, was filed alleging securities law violations related to NuScale’s commercialization partnership with ENTRA1 Energy. Investors who bought Class A common stock between May 13, 2025 and November 6, 2025 may seek lead plaintiff status by April 20, 2026.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from $20.73 to $20.42, a reduction of about 1.5%.
Discount Rate: raised modestly from 8.97% to 9.09%, implying a somewhat higher required return in the model.
Revenue Growth: held effectively steady at a very large figure of around 119%, with no meaningful revision in this update.
Net Profit Margin: adjusted marginally lower from 11.25% to 11.25%, a small tightening in assumed profitability.
Future P/E: reduced slightly from 281.21x to 278.02x, indicating a minor pullback in the multiple applied to future earnings.

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Key Takeaways

NuScale's advanced SMR commercialization and partnerships position it well for accelerated revenue growth and immediate deployment in competitive energy markets.
Efficiency improvements and strategic focus on reducing expenses are expected to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.
Challenges in securing agreements, funding uncertainties, and potential supply chain issues threaten cash flow, earnings, and profitability, despite project advancements.

Catalysts

About NuScale Power

Provides small modular reactor technology solutions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

NuScale's involvement in the RoPower 6-module small modular reactor (SMR) power plant in Romania indicates future meaningful revenue and cash flow through its partnership in the Fluor-led Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) Phase 2. This project enhances NuScale's revenue prospects.
With an NRC-approved SMR technology and the commitment of over $2 billion towards its development and licensing, NuScale is uniquely positioned for immediate commercial deployment compared to competitors focused solely on demonstration plans. This potentially accelerates revenue growth once commercial operations commence.
NuScale is advancing the manufacturing of long-lead materials for 12 modules, anticipating customer demand, which supports a smooth production ramp-up, reducing delivery times significantly, and potentially boosting future revenue and earnings.
Significant demand for nuclear energy, especially from AI-driven data centers like Microsoft and Meta, could lead to increased interest and order placements for NuScale’s SMR technology. This could materially increase future revenues as data centers triple their energy use by 2028.
NuScale's focus on reducing operating expenses, as noted by the substantial year-over-year decrease, could lead to improved net margins. Efficiency improvements transitioning from R&D to commercialization are likely to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.

NuScale Power Earnings and Revenue Growth

NuScale Power Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming NuScale Power's revenue will grow by 119.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that NuScale Power will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate NuScale Power's profit margin will increase from -1130.3% to the average US Electrical industry of 11.2% in 3 years.
If NuScale Power's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $37.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.1) by about April 2029, up from -$355.8 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 278.2x on those 2029 earnings, up from -11.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 35.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.09%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The complexity and negotiation challenges of securing long-term power purchase agreements with prospective customers could delay revenue generation and impact cash flow projections.
The U.S. government grant-related uncertainties and the administrative process of securing additional funding highlight a possible risk to future liquidity and investment inflow, potentially affecting financial stability and development timelines.
Potential bottlenecks in the supply chain or manufacturing process for the small modular reactors, despite current advancements, could lead to increased operational costs and affect net margins.
The dependence on the successful commercialization of ENTRA1 Energy projects and the potential delays in customer acquisition for NuScale's long-lead modules pose a risk to revenue forecasts and earnings projections.
The ongoing regulatory approval process with the NRC for the power upgrade and overall project complexity may result in unanticipated expenses or timeline shifts, impacting future earnings and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $20.42 for NuScale Power based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $52.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $8.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $330.7 million, earnings will come to $37.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 278.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.1%.
Given the current share price of $12.79, the analyst price target of $20.42 is 37.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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