Last Update 23 Feb 26

SMR: Future DOE Fuel Support And ENTRA1 Execution Will Drive Deployment Visibility

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on NuScale Power to $20 from $23, citing revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple, as well as a slightly higher discount rate and recent target cuts at firms such as Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital, tempered by a new bullish initiation from Texas Capital.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on NuScale Power presents a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting targets and ratings as they revisit assumptions around growth, profitability and risk.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to NuScale Power's positioning in nuclear-focused energy solutions as a key driver of long term growth potential. They see this as supporting a higher P/E multiple over time if execution aligns with expectations.
The recent bullish initiation highlights potential upside if the company can convert its project pipeline into revenue at attractive margins, which would help justify the current sector premium implied in some models.
Supportive views generally assume that management can control costs and move projects through regulatory and commercial milestones in a way that eventually improves operating leverage and valuation.
Bullish analysts also see room for the shares if the broader market continues to assign higher valuations to companies tied to low carbon power solutions, provided NuScale Power meets development and deployment timelines.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are trimming price targets, including one cut to US$20 from US$23 and another reduction of US$11, reflecting more conservative assumptions on revenue timing, profit margins and risk.
Several recent downgrades flag execution risk around project delivery, suggesting that any delays or cost pressure could weigh on profitability and limit the potential for multiple expansion.
Higher discount rates in some models indicate concern about funding needs, regulatory progress and project level uncertainties, which can pressure valuation even if long term demand for nuclear power remains intact.
The presence of target cuts from larger institutions such as Goldman Sachs reinforces a cautious stance among some investors, especially those focused on near to medium term visibility around cash flows and earnings.

What's in the News

The U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing an initiative aimed at expanding the nuclear fuel supply chain, which could influence how companies like NuScale source fuel and plan long term deployment of small modular reactors (CNBC, DOE initiative would boost nuclear fuel supply chain).
NuScale Power plans to partner with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to use an AI enabled nuclear design framework for a 12 module NuScale Power Module configuration, focusing on ways to manage fuel more efficiently across multiple reactors at a single site with support from the DOE GAIN voucher program.
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP is leading a class action lawsuit on behalf of NuScale investors who bought Class A common stock between May 13, 2025 and November 6, 2025, with allegations around disclosures tied to the ENTRA1 Energy commercialization partnership and NuScale’s NPM deployment plans.
The lawsuit highlights claims that NuScale entrusted commercialization and deployment of its small modular reactor technology and large capital commitments to ENTRA1. ENTRA1 is described in the complaint as having limited prior experience with nuclear power projects, which plaintiffs argue created undisclosed risks around NuScale’s commercialization approach.
NuScale disclosed general and administrative expenses of $519 million for a third fiscal quarter, with $495 million attributed to payments to ENTRA1 related to a Tennessee Valley Authority agreement involving up to 72 NuScale Power Modules, and reported a quarterly net loss of $532 million, with analysts questioning ENTRA1’s experience on the corresponding conference call.
In a special meeting held December 16, 2025, stockholders approved an amendment to increase authorized Class A common shares from 332,000,000 to 662,000,000, expanding the company’s capacity to issue new equity in the future.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: $33.96 is unchanged, indicating no revision to the modelled intrinsic value per share in this update.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from 9.12% to 9.21%, implying a modestly higher required return applied to future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Revenue growth assumptions have fallen significantly from 95.11% to 82.72%, pointing to a more conservative view on how quickly sales may scale.
Net Profit Margin: Profit margin expectations have eased from 13.55% to 12.30%, reflecting slightly lower anticipated profitability on future revenue.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has risen meaningfully from 140.68x to 189.23x, indicating a higher valuation multiple being applied despite more cautious operating assumptions.

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Key Takeaways

NuScale's advanced SMR commercialization and partnerships position it well for accelerated revenue growth and immediate deployment in competitive energy markets.
Efficiency improvements and strategic focus on reducing expenses are expected to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.
Challenges in securing agreements, funding uncertainties, and potential supply chain issues threaten cash flow, earnings, and profitability, despite project advancements.

Catalysts

About NuScale Power

Provides small modular reactor technology solutions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

NuScale's involvement in the RoPower 6-module small modular reactor (SMR) power plant in Romania indicates future meaningful revenue and cash flow through its partnership in the Fluor-led Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) Phase 2. This project enhances NuScale's revenue prospects.
With an NRC-approved SMR technology and the commitment of over $2 billion towards its development and licensing, NuScale is uniquely positioned for immediate commercial deployment compared to competitors focused solely on demonstration plans. This potentially accelerates revenue growth once commercial operations commence.
NuScale is advancing the manufacturing of long-lead materials for 12 modules, anticipating customer demand, which supports a smooth production ramp-up, reducing delivery times significantly, and potentially boosting future revenue and earnings.
Significant demand for nuclear energy, especially from AI-driven data centers like Microsoft and Meta, could lead to increased interest and order placements for NuScale’s SMR technology. This could materially increase future revenues as data centers triple their energy use by 2028.
NuScale's focus on reducing operating expenses, as noted by the substantial year-over-year decrease, could lead to improved net margins. Efficiency improvements transitioning from R&D to commercialization are likely to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.

NuScale Power Earnings and Revenue Growth

NuScale Power Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming NuScale Power's revenue will grow by 121.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that NuScale Power will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate NuScale Power's profit margin will increase from -368.8% to the average US Electrical industry of 10.5% in 3 years.
If NuScale Power's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $42.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.12) by about April 2028, up from $-136.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 248.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from -13.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 19.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.48%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

NuScale Power Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The complexity and negotiation challenges of securing long-term power purchase agreements with prospective customers could delay revenue generation and impact cash flow projections.
The U.S. government grant-related uncertainties and the administrative process of securing additional funding highlight a possible risk to future liquidity and investment inflow, potentially affecting financial stability and development timelines.
Potential bottlenecks in the supply chain or manufacturing process for the small modular reactors, despite current advancements, could lead to increased operational costs and affect net margins.
The dependence on the successful commercialization of ENTRA1 Energy projects and the potential delays in customer acquisition for NuScale's long-lead modules pose a risk to revenue forecasts and earnings projections.
The ongoing regulatory approval process with the NRC for the power upgrade and overall project complexity may result in unanticipated expenses or timeline shifts, impacting future earnings and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $24.46 for NuScale Power based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $29.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $402.3 million, earnings will come to $42.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 248.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of $13.91, the analyst price target of $24.46 is 43.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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