Softening Insurance Markets And Rising Catastrophe Risks Will Erode Margins

Key Takeaways

• Intensifying competition, catastrophe risks, and regulatory pressures threaten to compress RLI's margins and amplify earnings volatility.
  
• Elevated technology investment and higher acquisition expenses risk prolonging increased costs without guaranteed improvements in growth or efficiency.
  
• Strong underwriting discipline, strategic growth in niche markets, and investments in technology support consistent profitability, adaptability, and stable long-term earnings growth.

Catalysts

An insurance holding company, underwrites property, casualty, and surety insurance products.

• The softening of the commercial property insurance market, driven by increased competition from MGAs and admitted carriers as well as significant new entrants, is expected to suppress top-line premium growth and potentially erode underwriting margins if RLI is unable to maintain current pricing discipline, ultimately pressuring revenue and net margins.
  
• Elevated frequency and severity of natural catastrophe events, combined with increasing catastrophe-related claims and ongoing exposure to hurricane and earthquake risk, may require RLI to set aside higher capital reserves and could lead to greater earnings volatility and reduced net profitability in the longer term.
  
• RLI's increased investments in technology, digital tools, and higher acquisition expenses, while intended to improve future efficiency, are currently contributing to a higher expense base; if these investments do not generate commensurate growth or savings, expense ratios could remain elevated and compress net margins.
  
• Persistently rising acquisition and reinsurance costs, as management elevates reinsurance cover and increases commission spend to defend or grow market share in selected lines, may continue to drag on overall profitability and pressure net margins.
  
• Heightened regulatory scrutiny and evolving legal/regional environments, especially related to tort reform and litigation risk, could result in higher compliance costs and constrain flexibility in product offerings, negatively impacting earnings growth and potentially increasing the company's expense ratios.

RLI Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming RLI's revenue will grow by 1.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 17.8% today to 15.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $297.9 million (and earnings per share of $3.31) by about August 2028, down from $323.4 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $352 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 19.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Insurance industry at 14.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.2% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

RLI Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• RLI management continues to demonstrate strong underwriting discipline, choosing to forgo growth in softening property markets and instead focus on profitable segments, which has resulted in segment combined ratios (e.g., 62% in Property and 87.9% in Surety) that are significantly below industry averages and should support stable or growing net margins over the long term.
  
• The company's capacity to pivot quickly toward growth opportunities in niche lines-as evident in the double-digit premium increases in Casualty and strong expansion in Surety and Hawaii homeowners-shows adaptability and positions RLI to benefit from secular trends like increasing demand for specialized insurance, supporting future revenue growth.
  
• Investments in technology and process improvement, including digital tools and improved customer relationship management, are designed to enhance underwriting efficiency and customer service, likely leading to better expense ratios and supporting long-term profitability and earnings growth.
  
• RLI maintains a conservative reserving approach and has achieved significant favorable prior-year reserve development across all three segments, reducing the risk of surprise negative reserve adjustments and supporting consistent earnings and book value growth.
  
• The company's strong balance sheet and prudent investment management, combined with a focus on high-quality fixed income and opportunistic equity investments (with investment income up 16% year-to-date), provide stable investment returns that bolster both net income and book value per share over time.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $74.333 for RLI based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $87.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $59.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.9 billion, earnings will come to $297.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
• Given the current share price of $67.84, the analyst price target of $74.33 is 8.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.