Last Update 08 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 1.01%

XRAY: Leadership Turnover And Extended Turnaround Plan Will Shape Recovery Path

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on DENTSPLY SIRONA by about $1, reflecting recent earnings misses, lowered guidance, leadership turnover and a view that any recovery may take longer to play out, even as some still include the stock among broader long term ideas.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on DENTSPLY SIRONA is split, with some firms still positioning the stock among longer term ideas while others are more focused on near term execution risks and leadership turnover.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still include DENTSPLY SIRONA in lists of preferred multi year ideas. This signals that, despite current challenges, they see room for value creation if execution improves over time.
At least one firm maintains a Buy rating even after trimming its price target. This suggests some investors view the recent pullback and lower expectations as already reflecting a fair amount of the known headwinds.
Commentary on the new CEO's return to growth plan highlights a focus on getting the business back on track. Some bulls see this as a path to better growth and margin execution beyond the current reset period.
Placement alongside a group of other preferred names for 2026 frames DENTSPLY SIRONA as part of a basket approach. In this context, investors may be looking for upside over a multi year horizon rather than quick gains.

Bearish Takeaways

Multiple bearish analysts have cut price targets, with JPMorgan now at US$12 and others in the low to mid teens. This reflects a view that recent results and guidance resets warrant a lower valuation until execution improves.
Q3 results included revenue slightly ahead of expectations but EBITDA and EPS misses, along with guidance reductions across the board. This has reinforced concerns about earnings quality and near term growth visibility.
Reduced guidance tied to lower volumes, weaker mix and tariffs has led some analysts to talk about a fresh 12 to 24 month turnaround effort. They view this as a longer, harder process that could cap upside for a while.
Another CFO departure and the need for a new search add to governance and execution questions. This has prompted some firms to move to more neutral or Hold style stances until leadership and the financial plan look more stable.

What's in the News

On October 14, 2025, the SEC closed its investigation into DENTSPLY SIRONA’s prior financial reporting matters without recommending any enforcement action, following the company’s cooperation with the inquiry (Regulatory Agency Inquiries).
On October 31, 2025, DENTSPLY SIRONA announced that Chief Financial Officer Matthew E. Garth will leave the role effective November 5, 2025, and the company has started a search for a new permanent CFO (Executive Changes: CFO).
On November 25, 2025, the company appointed Michael Pomeroy as interim CFO, with CEO Daniel T. Scavilla continuing as principal financial officer until a permanent CFO is named (Executive Changes: CFO).
For the third quarter of 2025, DENTSPLY SIRONA recorded a US$263 million noncash after tax impairment charge related to goodwill and intangible assets, tied to tariffs and lower projected volumes for equipment, implants and prosthetic products in the U.S. (Impairments/Write Offs).
The company updated its 2025 guidance, now expecting net sales of US$3.6b to US$3.7b and constant currency sales in the range of a 5% to 4% year over year decline (Corporate Guidance: New/Confirmed).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from US$12.96 to US$12.83 per share, reflecting modest adjustments to the model inputs.
Discount Rate: reduced from 10.21% to 9.99%, implying a lower required return in the updated assessment.
Revenue Growth: revised marginally higher from 2.12% to 2.16%, indicating a small change in expected top line trends.
Net Profit Margin: nudged up from 4.51% to 4.59%, pointing to a slightly stronger profitability assumption.
Future P/E: brought down from 20.04x to 19.36x, suggesting a somewhat lower valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

Expanded digital dentistry platforms and recurring revenue focus aim to raise margins, while streamlined operations target improved efficiency and cash flow.
Strategic investments in innovation and customer relationships are positioning the company to benefit from global dental industry growth and shifting care trends.
Persistent sales decline, cost inflation, competitive pressures, misaligned investments, and strategic execution risks collectively threaten long-term profitability and market share retention.

Catalysts

About DENTSPLY SIRONA

Develops, manufactures, and markets dental equipment supported by cloud-enabled solutions, dental products, and healthcare consumable products in urology and enterology worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

DENTSPLY SIRONA is leveraging the increasing global demand for advanced dental care-driven by an aging population and rising middle class in emerging markets-by ramping up investments in product innovation and tailored field support, which is expected to accelerate international revenue growth over the long term.
The company's continued expansion of digital dentistry platforms (such as DS Core) and emphasis on integrated software/hardware solutions aim to capture higher-margin recurring revenues as dental practices adopt digital workflows, supporting sustainable improvements in net margins and earnings.
Active cost reduction programs, operational streamlining, and supply chain optimization are in progress, with management indicating a stronger urgency to go "deeper and faster," potentially boosting EBITDA margin and cash flow generation through both lower SG&A and more efficient manufacturing.
Management's focus on closer customer relationships, clinician workflow enhancements, and proceduralization is expected to drive sales force effectiveness and bolster share in aesthetic and restorative segments-areas benefiting from heightened health awareness and the global trend toward elective and preventive dental procedures.
Disciplined capital allocation toward innovation, organic growth, and financial flexibility, along with new leadership focused on execution, positions DENTSPLY SIRONA to capitalize on long-term industry consolidation and the shift toward value-based, high-quality dental care, which should support multi-year top-line and bottom-line growth.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Earnings and Revenue Growth

DENTSPLY SIRONA Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming DENTSPLY SIRONA's revenue will grow by 2.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -25.9% today to 12.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $502.2 million (and earnings per share of $1.15) by about September 2028, up from $-949.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 28.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.35% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.51%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent top-line challenges were evident, with global sales declining by nearly 5% year-over-year and continued U.S. sales weakness (down 11% ex-Byte), indicating DENTSPLY SIRONA is struggling to reignite sustainable revenue growth, especially in major geographies-an ongoing trend that could threaten long-term revenue and earnings outlook.
The company faces significant cost headwinds from tariffs, with the annualized impact escalating from $50 million to $80 million, only partially offset for 2025 and suggesting greater margin compression by 2026 if cost pass-through and mitigation measures falter-thus pressuring both gross and EBITDA margins over the long term.
Management repeatedly cited ongoing "softness" in high-margin elective categories (implants, CAD/CAM, imaging, U.S. orthodontics) and highlighted a double-digit decline in value implants, driven by both operational bottlenecks (e.g., Middle East disruptions) and increased competitive intensity; this reflects structural risks to both revenue growth and market share, especially as lower-cost competitors expand.
Recent impairment charges of $214 million related to goodwill and intangibles in the OIS and CTS segments underscore the misalignment of prior investment assumptions with current market realities, raising concerns about future returns on innovation investment, capital allocation discipline, and the risk of additional write-downs that could negatively affect reported earnings and investor confidence.
Management transitions and frequent references to needing more time for "listen-and-learn" sessions highlight strategic execution risk, especially amid an innovation-heavy and highly competitive landscape; ongoing integration and operational streamlining efforts may struggle to deliver expected efficiencies and could drive higher SG&A costs, hampering net margin expansion if not executed decisively and rapidly.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.857 for DENTSPLY SIRONA based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $24.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $14.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.9 billion, earnings will come to $502.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.5%.
Given the current share price of $13.91, the analyst price target of $16.86 is 17.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Weigh Mixed Outlook for DENTSPLY SIRONA as Valuation and Guidance Adjusted