Last Update 06 Dec 25

XRAY: New Leadership And Turnaround Plan Will Drive Long-Term Recovery Potential

DENTSPLY SIRONA’s analyst price target has been revised modestly lower to $12.96 per share from $13.00, as analysts factor in softer earnings performance, reduced guidance, and ongoing leadership transitions, despite a still constructive long term recovery narrative.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts are reassessing DENTSPLY SIRONA’s risk reward profile in light of weaker execution, reduced guidance, and leadership turnover, resulting in a cluster of lower price targets and more tempered expectations for the timing of any recovery.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still see long term upside potential, with at least one high conviction target in the low 20 dollar range implying meaningful rerating if management delivers on its growth plan.
The updated return to growth action plan outlined by the new CEO is viewed as a credible framework that could begin to support re acceleration and margin improvement from the second half of 2026 onward.
Despite recent volatility, some forecasts assume that near term U.S. headwinds and mix issues are cyclical rather than structural, supporting the case for multiple expansion once earnings stabilize.
The maintained Buy view at a higher target level signals that select investors still regard the current dislocation as an opportunity to gain exposure ahead of a multi year turnaround.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are focused on execution risk, citing Q3 EBITDA and EPS misses and broad based guidance cuts as evidence that the turnaround is likely to be longer and more complex than initially expected.
Ongoing leadership disruption, including another CFO departure after a brief tenure, heightens concerns around strategic continuity and raises the risk of further estimate resets.
The downgrade in rating and shift to more muted price targets in the low teens reflect skepticism that management can quickly offset lower volumes, unfavorable mix, and tariff headwinds.
U.S. market challenges are viewed as deeper than previously appreciated, limiting confidence in near term growth and constraining the scope for multiple expansion over the next 12 to 24 months.

What's in the News

Appointed seasoned finance executive Michael Pomeroy as interim Chief Financial Officer, while CEO Dan Scavilla remains principal financial officer until a permanent CFO is named (Company filing).
Announced the departure of CFO Matthew E. Garth, effective November 5, 2025, and initiated a formal search process for his successor (Company filing).
Revised 2025 guidance to net sales of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, with constant currency sales expected to decline 4% to 5% year over year (Company guidance).
Recorded a $263 million noncash after tax impairment charge in Q3 2025 related to goodwill and intangible assets, driven by tariffs and lower projected U.S. equipment, implant, and prosthetics volumes (Company results).
Completed the strategic review of Wellspect Healthcare and decided to retain the business, citing stronger long term value creation as part of DENTSPLY SIRONA’s portfolio (Company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: Effectively unchanged at approximately $12.96 per share, indicating a stable intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 10.57% to 10.21%, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at approximately 2.12% annually, signaling a steady medium term growth outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Flat at roughly 4.51%, suggesting no material change in expected long term profitability.
Future P/E: Edged down slightly from about 20.23x to 20.04x, pointing to a marginally lower valuation multiple on expected earnings.

Expanded digital dentistry platforms and recurring revenue focus aim to raise margins, while streamlined operations target improved efficiency and cash flow.
Strategic investments in innovation and customer relationships are positioning the company to benefit from global dental industry growth and shifting care trends.
Persistent sales decline, cost inflation, competitive pressures, misaligned investments, and strategic execution risks collectively threaten long-term profitability and market share retention.

Catalysts

About DENTSPLY SIRONA

Develops, manufactures, and markets dental equipment supported by cloud-enabled solutions, dental products, and healthcare consumable products in urology and enterology worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

DENTSPLY SIRONA is leveraging the increasing global demand for advanced dental care-driven by an aging population and rising middle class in emerging markets-by ramping up investments in product innovation and tailored field support, which is expected to accelerate international revenue growth over the long term.
The company's continued expansion of digital dentistry platforms (such as DS Core) and emphasis on integrated software/hardware solutions aim to capture higher-margin recurring revenues as dental practices adopt digital workflows, supporting sustainable improvements in net margins and earnings.
Active cost reduction programs, operational streamlining, and supply chain optimization are in progress, with management indicating a stronger urgency to go "deeper and faster," potentially boosting EBITDA margin and cash flow generation through both lower SG&A and more efficient manufacturing.
Management's focus on closer customer relationships, clinician workflow enhancements, and proceduralization is expected to drive sales force effectiveness and bolster share in aesthetic and restorative segments-areas benefiting from heightened health awareness and the global trend toward elective and preventive dental procedures.
Disciplined capital allocation toward innovation, organic growth, and financial flexibility, along with new leadership focused on execution, positions DENTSPLY SIRONA to capitalize on long-term industry consolidation and the shift toward value-based, high-quality dental care, which should support multi-year top-line and bottom-line growth.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Earnings and Revenue Growth

DENTSPLY SIRONA Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming DENTSPLY SIRONA's revenue will grow by 2.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -25.9% today to 12.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $502.2 million (and earnings per share of $1.15) by about September 2028, up from $-949.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 28.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.35% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.51%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent top-line challenges were evident, with global sales declining by nearly 5% year-over-year and continued U.S. sales weakness (down 11% ex-Byte), indicating DENTSPLY SIRONA is struggling to reignite sustainable revenue growth, especially in major geographies-an ongoing trend that could threaten long-term revenue and earnings outlook.
The company faces significant cost headwinds from tariffs, with the annualized impact escalating from $50 million to $80 million, only partially offset for 2025 and suggesting greater margin compression by 2026 if cost pass-through and mitigation measures falter-thus pressuring both gross and EBITDA margins over the long term.
Management repeatedly cited ongoing "softness" in high-margin elective categories (implants, CAD/CAM, imaging, U.S. orthodontics) and highlighted a double-digit decline in value implants, driven by both operational bottlenecks (e.g., Middle East disruptions) and increased competitive intensity; this reflects structural risks to both revenue growth and market share, especially as lower-cost competitors expand.
Recent impairment charges of $214 million related to goodwill and intangibles in the OIS and CTS segments underscore the misalignment of prior investment assumptions with current market realities, raising concerns about future returns on innovation investment, capital allocation discipline, and the risk of additional write-downs that could negatively affect reported earnings and investor confidence.
Management transitions and frequent references to needing more time for "listen-and-learn" sessions highlight strategic execution risk, especially amid an innovation-heavy and highly competitive landscape; ongoing integration and operational streamlining efforts may struggle to deliver expected efficiencies and could drive higher SG&A costs, hampering net margin expansion if not executed decisively and rapidly.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.857 for DENTSPLY SIRONA based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $24.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $14.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.9 billion, earnings will come to $502.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.5%.
Given the current share price of $13.91, the analyst price target of $16.86 is 17.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Weigh Mixed Outlook for DENTSPLY SIRONA as Valuation and Guidance Adjusted