Last Update 19 Jan 26

SPRY: Virtual Access And China Approval Will Drive Needle Free Allergy Share

Analysts have reduced their price targets on ARS Pharmaceuticals to a range centered around roughly US$30 to US$35, citing ongoing momentum for neffy, recent revenue outperformance, and a potentially delayed competitive launch following the FDA deficiency letter to a rival product.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates on ARS Pharmaceuticals focus heavily on neffy adoption, revenue traction, and the competitive backdrop in anaphylaxis treatment. Price targets have generally been reset into the US$30 to US$35 range, with most commentary still framed around execution on neffy and timing for competing products.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight Q3 revenue of US$32.5m, which came in above both consensus and internal estimates around US$28.7m to US$29.4m, as a supportive data point for the current valuation range.
Momentum for neffy tied to direct to consumer efforts, back to school seasonality, and broader prescriber adoption across new epinephrine segments is seen as a key driver of near term growth expectations.
Some analysts point to additional potential tailwinds from a planned virtual campaign, more real world evidence, and expected formulary additions in 2026 as reasons to maintain constructive views on the company’s multi year revenue trajectory.
The recent FDA deficiency letter to a competing product is seen by bullish analysts as a possible delay to rival market entry, which they view as incrementally supportive for neffy’s market position and the company’s pricing power assumptions.

Bearish Takeaways

Lowered price targets, such as the move down to US$35 from US$40, show that even optimistic analysts are recalibrating expectations, reflecting sensitivity to execution risk and valuation discipline despite positive fundamentals.
Reliance on continued prescription momentum tied to marketing campaigns and seasonality leaves less room for missteps in commercial execution, which some cautious analysts flag as a key risk to growth assumptions.
Expectations for future support from virtual outreach, real world evidence, and formulary wins require consistent follow through, and any delay or underperformance in these areas could put pressure on revenue forecasts and current multiples.
Regulatory uncertainty around competing products cuts both ways, and while delays can help neffy in the near term, cautious analysts note that eventual competitive entries could still affect long term share and pricing assumptions.

What's in the News

China's National Medical Products Administration approved neffy 2 mg epinephrine nasal spray, branded as You Min Su, for emergency treatment of Type 1 allergic reactions in adults and children weighing at least 30 kg, giving ARS Pharmaceuticals access to a market where an estimated 50 million to 100 million people are affected by food allergies and at risk for severe reactions (Key Developments).
ARS Pharmaceuticals and Pediatrix Therapeutics plan to file in the coming months for approval of a neffy 1 mg dose in China for children greater than 15 kg and less than 30 kg, which would extend the potential pediatric reach of the product if approved (Key Developments).
The company highlighted additional potential use cases in China through its chronic spontaneous urticaria program, currently in Phase 2b, where about 6.5 million people are estimated to be diagnosed and treated with antihistamines or biologics (Key Developments).
ARS Pharmaceuticals launched the “Get neffy on Us” program, offering patients a free virtual visit with a provider who can prescribe neffy, aiming to reduce the need for in person office visits and streamline access to the medicine (Key Developments).
Eligible patients with commercial insurance may receive neffy with a $0 co pay, with delivery to a local pharmacy or directly to the home within 3 to 5 days, which could affect how quickly prescriptions translate into filled orders (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Model fair value per share is unchanged at about US$28.83, indicating no shift in the core valuation output.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from about 7.26% to about 7.34%, which modestly increases the required return used in the analysis.
Revenue Growth: The long term revenue growth assumption remains effectively the same at about 45.36%, with only an immaterial rounding difference in the updated figure.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption is essentially unchanged at about 9.61%, suggesting no material update to profitability expectations in the model.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple is broadly stable, moving slightly from about 85.30x to about 85.49x, so the valuation still assumes a high earnings multiple relative to many mature companies.

Accelerating demand and expanded access for neffy, especially in pediatric and school settings, is driving significant revenue and earnings growth opportunities.
Global expansion, new clinical indications, and strong market penetration strategies are broadening revenue streams and creating multiple long-term growth drivers.
Dependence on a single product, high marketing spend, pricing pressures, and rising competition create substantial risks to sustainable growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About ARS Pharmaceuticals

A biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes treatments for severe allergic reactions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Increasing global prevalence of severe allergies and anaphylaxis, alongside rising awareness of rapid allergic reaction treatment, is expanding the long-term demand for needle-free emergency therapies like neffy-which is reflected in accelerating prescription growth and should drive sustained top-line revenue expansion.
Growing pediatric and school-based adoption-supported by program engagement, recent pediatric dosing approvals, and legislative updates in multiple states-positions neffy to capture untapped patient pools, increasing revenue scale and supporting durable earnings growth as the addressable market broadens.
Successful global rollout initiatives, with neffy launches in Germany and the UK and pending regulatory approvals in Canada, Australia, Japan, and China, create a catalyst for international revenue growth and milestone payments, diversifying and expanding overall revenue streams.
Rapid removal of access barriers (93% payer coverage, reduced prior authorization requirements, high co-pay support adoption) combined with a robust DTC campaign is improving market penetration, which is likely to drive further revenue growth and enhance net margins via operating leverage as sales increase.
Expansion of intranasal epinephrine indications (e.g., ongoing Phase IIb clinical trial in chronic spontaneous urticaria) could unlock high-value new use cases for neffy, creating future growth drivers for both top-line revenue and long-term earnings.

ARS Pharmaceuticals Earnings and Revenue Growth

ARS Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming ARS Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 54.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -42.7% today to 17.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $73.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.68) by about September 2028, up from $-48.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $82.5 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-53.5 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 52.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -22.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.69% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

ARS Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on neffy as a single lead asset exposes ARS to significant product concentration risk; any future regulatory setbacks, commercial issues, or competitive pressures directly threaten topline revenue and earnings due to lack of diversification.
Intense investment in DTC marketing and high SG&A expenses, without assurance of sustained DTC effectiveness or ultimate script conversion, could pressure near
and mid-term net margins and increase risk of poor operating leverage if prescription growth plateaus.
Industry-wide drug price transparency, reimbursement pressures, and increased gross-to-net (GTN) deductions are already compressing ARS's net product revenue; ongoing payer negotiations and co-pay support could further erode long-term profitability.
Advancing competition in non-injectable epinephrine or alternative anaphylaxis treatments, or disruptive next-generation delivery methods from larger or more resourceful pharma, could quickly diminish neffy's commercial opportunity, affecting future revenue growth.
Global expansion is dependent on partnership milestones, successful international regulatory approvals, and country-specific market adoption, all of which encounter substantial execution risk and could delay or cap multi-year revenue and earnings scalability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $31.0 for ARS Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $415.9 million, earnings will come to $73.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 52.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $10.88, the analyst price target of $31.0 is 64.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Worldwide Allergy Trends Will Expand Needle-Free Treatment Access