SPRY: Needle Free Allergy Rescue Will Gain Share On Virtual Access Programs

Analysts have inched their fair value estimate for ARS Pharmaceuticals higher to about $28.83 per share from roughly $28.67, citing strong recent revenue from Neffy, fresh Street targets in the $30 to $35 range, and expectations for continued adoption supported by direct to consumer efforts and broader prescriber uptake.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that the recent Q3 revenue of $32.5M exceeded both Street consensus and internal models. They view this outcome as supportive of the current fair value range around the low to mid $30s.
Neffy is seen as a key growth driver, with recent performance linked to direct to consumer campaigns, back to school season, and broader prescriber adoption across new epinephrine segments.
Analysts point to potential future support from a virtual campaign, additional real world evidence, and expected formulary additions in 2026 as reasons they see room for continued uptake of Neffy.
Some bullish analysts argue that the ability of Neffy to take share from older epinephrine auto injectors is not fully reflected in current expectations. They view this as a source of potential upside if execution stays on track.

Bearish Takeaways

More cautious analysts have trimmed price targets. This suggests they see less headroom in the near term even while acknowledging the recent revenue performance and product traction.
There is an emphasis on execution risk around sustaining Neffy adoption once initial DTC lift, seasonal factors, and early prescriber enthusiasm normalize.
Some skeptics flag uncertainty around how quickly upcoming efforts such as the virtual campaign, real world evidence, and 2026 formulary changes may translate into measurable financial results.
Expectations for Neffy to take significant share from established auto injectors set a high execution bar, and bearish analysts appear cautious about assuming that pace of share shift in their valuation work.

What's in the News

China's National Medical Products Administration approved neffy 2 mg epinephrine nasal spray for emergency treatment of Type 1 allergic reactions in adults and children weighing 30 kg or more, under the trade name You Min Su. ARS Pharmaceuticals and Pediatrix Therapeutics plan to file for a 1 mg pediatric dose for children between 15 kg and 30 kg in the coming months (Key Developments).
The company highlighted estimates that about 4.0% to 8.2% of China's population, roughly 50 million to 100 million people, may be affected by food allergies and at risk for severe allergic reactions. It also noted that around 6.5 million people with chronic spontaneous urticaria are estimated to be diagnosed and treated with antihistamines or biologics in China, providing context for its product focus in that market (Key Developments).
ARS Pharmaceuticals launched the "Get neffy on Us" program, which offers patients a free virtual visit with a provider who can prescribe neffy and aims to reduce the time burden of an in person office visit (Key Developments).
For eligible patients with commercial insurance, the "Get neffy on Us" program includes a $0 co pay for neffy and options to deliver prescriptions to a local pharmacy or directly to the patient's home within 3 to 5 days (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The fair value estimate is now about US$28.83 per share compared with roughly US$28.67 previously, a slight upward adjustment.
Discount Rate: The discount rate assumption is now 7.26% compared with 7.35% before, a small reduction.
Revenue Growth: The long-term revenue growth input remains effectively unchanged at about 45.36%.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption is essentially flat at roughly 9.61%.
Future P/E: The future P/E input has moved from about 203.69x to 85.30x, a substantial reduction in the valuation multiple used.

Accelerating demand and expanded access for neffy, especially in pediatric and school settings, is driving significant revenue and earnings growth opportunities.
Global expansion, new clinical indications, and strong market penetration strategies are broadening revenue streams and creating multiple long-term growth drivers.
Dependence on a single product, high marketing spend, pricing pressures, and rising competition create substantial risks to sustainable growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About ARS Pharmaceuticals

A biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes treatments for severe allergic reactions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Increasing global prevalence of severe allergies and anaphylaxis, alongside rising awareness of rapid allergic reaction treatment, is expanding the long-term demand for needle-free emergency therapies like neffy-which is reflected in accelerating prescription growth and should drive sustained top-line revenue expansion.
Growing pediatric and school-based adoption-supported by program engagement, recent pediatric dosing approvals, and legislative updates in multiple states-positions neffy to capture untapped patient pools, increasing revenue scale and supporting durable earnings growth as the addressable market broadens.
Successful global rollout initiatives, with neffy launches in Germany and the UK and pending regulatory approvals in Canada, Australia, Japan, and China, create a catalyst for international revenue growth and milestone payments, diversifying and expanding overall revenue streams.
Rapid removal of access barriers (93% payer coverage, reduced prior authorization requirements, high co-pay support adoption) combined with a robust DTC campaign is improving market penetration, which is likely to drive further revenue growth and enhance net margins via operating leverage as sales increase.
Expansion of intranasal epinephrine indications (e.g., ongoing Phase IIb clinical trial in chronic spontaneous urticaria) could unlock high-value new use cases for neffy, creating future growth drivers for both top-line revenue and long-term earnings.

ARS Pharmaceuticals Earnings and Revenue Growth

ARS Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming ARS Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 54.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -42.7% today to 17.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $73.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.68) by about September 2028, up from $-48.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $82.5 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-53.5 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 52.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -22.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.69% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

ARS Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on neffy as a single lead asset exposes ARS to significant product concentration risk; any future regulatory setbacks, commercial issues, or competitive pressures directly threaten topline revenue and earnings due to lack of diversification.
Intense investment in DTC marketing and high SG&A expenses, without assurance of sustained DTC effectiveness or ultimate script conversion, could pressure near
and mid-term net margins and increase risk of poor operating leverage if prescription growth plateaus.
Industry-wide drug price transparency, reimbursement pressures, and increased gross-to-net (GTN) deductions are already compressing ARS's net product revenue; ongoing payer negotiations and co-pay support could further erode long-term profitability.
Advancing competition in non-injectable epinephrine or alternative anaphylaxis treatments, or disruptive next-generation delivery methods from larger or more resourceful pharma, could quickly diminish neffy's commercial opportunity, affecting future revenue growth.
Global expansion is dependent on partnership milestones, successful international regulatory approvals, and country-specific market adoption, all of which encounter substantial execution risk and could delay or cap multi-year revenue and earnings scalability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $31.0 for ARS Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $415.9 million, earnings will come to $73.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 52.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $10.88, the analyst price target of $31.0 is 64.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Worldwide Allergy Trends Will Expand Needle-Free Treatment Access