Last Update28 Jun 25
EUinvestor has decreased revenue growth from 50.1% to 0.0% and decreased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.0% to 0.0%.
450% in 5 years
On April 17, 2025, Armin Papperger, Rheinmetall's CEO, said he expects orders to grow 450% by 2030.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rheinmetall-ceo-expects-order-book-113644072.html
Price 8,052 EUR
The share price at the time of this information on 17/04/2025 was 1,464 EUR
Price estimate for 2030: 1,464 + 450% = 8,052 EUR
NATO spending in Europe
17/04/2025 The results of the NATO Summit held 24-26 June 2025 in The Hague, where it was agreed to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP and transport and IT infrastructure spending at 1.5% each year until 2035, were not yet known.
Source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm
But there is one discrepancy - while the official NATO report talks about this budget increase to 3.5% +1.5% annually, the European media talks about 3.5% +1.5% as a target to be gradually reached by 2030-2035.
Price more than 8,052 EUR
Armin Papperger himself said in interviews around 17.04.2025 that his future order estimates do not include increased NATO spending or the German government's spending package of €500 bn for defence already approved on 18.03.2025
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/18/german-mps-approve-500bn-spending-boost-to-counter-putin-war-of-aggression
Big Advantages of Rheinmetall within EU
The advantage of Rheinmetall is that it can cover all the needs of NATO, which mainly requires ammunition, air defence, drones and IT defence. In addition, it owns the entire munitions production chain, including the production of explosive compounds (nitrocellulose).
Source: https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/products/propellants/propulsion/nc-rm-pvk
Source: https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/products/overview
Share Split
The most expensive, commonly traded stock in Europe is Hermès, with a price trading in June at around €2,300. I assume that when the shares of Rheinmetall reach €3,000, there will be a 1:10 split, so the price of one share will be €300, but you will have 10 of them.
Risks
1) Trump's tariffs on the EU are the biggest risk at the moment.
2) Another significant risk is the announcement of a ceasefire in Ukraine. In the event of a peace being declared, whatever the terms, we can almost certainly expect a dramatic correction (in the tens of percentages), i.e. profit taking, as the stock has appreciated 2,000% since 2022. Then you have to have steady nerves and not sell. Clearly this will only be a knee-jerk reaction by investors, and money will still flow into defense regardless of the war in Ukraine.
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Disclaimer
The user EUinvestor holds no position in XTRA:RHM. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
