450% in 5 years

On April 17, 2025, Armin Papperger, Rheinmetall's CEO, said he expects orders to grow 450% by 2030.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rheinmetall-ceo-expects-order-book-113644072.html

Price 8,052 EUR

The share price at the time of this information on 17/04/2025 was 1,464 EUR

Price estimate for 2030: 1,464 + 450% = 8,052 EUR

NATO spending in Europe

17/04/2025 The results of the NATO Summit held 24-26 June 2025 in The Hague, where it was agreed to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP and transport and IT infrastructure spending at 1.5% each year until 2035, were not yet known.

Source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm

But there is one discrepancy - while the official NATO report talks about this budget increase to 3.5% +1.5% annually, the European media talks about 3.5% +1.5% as a target to be gradually reached by 2030-2035.

Price more than 8,052 EUR

Armin Papperger himself said in interviews around 17.04.2025 that his future order estimates do not include increased NATO spending or the German government's spending package of €500 bn for defence already approved on 18.03.2025

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/18/german-mps-approve-500bn-spending-boost-to-counter-putin-war-of-aggression

Big Advantages of Rheinmetall within EU

The advantage of Rheinmetall is that it can cover all the needs of NATO, which mainly requires ammunition, air defence, drones and IT defence. In addition, it owns the entire munitions production chain, including the production of explosive compounds (nitrocellulose).

Source: https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/products/propellants/propulsion/nc-rm-pvk

Source: https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/products/overview

Share Split

The most expensive, commonly traded stock in Europe is Hermès, with a price trading in June at around €2,300. I assume that when the shares of Rheinmetall reach €3,000, there will be a 1:10 split, so the price of one share will be €300, but you will have 10 of them.

Risks

1) Trump's tariffs on the EU are the biggest risk at the moment.

2) Another significant risk is the announcement of a ceasefire in Ukraine. In the event of a peace being declared, whatever the terms, we can almost certainly expect a dramatic correction (in the tens of percentages), i.e. profit taking, as the stock has appreciated 2,000% since 2022. Then you have to have steady nerves and not sell. Clearly this will only be a knee-jerk reaction by investors, and money will still flow into defense regardless of the war in Ukraine.

From 8 052 € to 300 € ?

Shared on 28 Jun 25