Expanded Immunotherapy Platform And Automation Will Transform Long Term Earnings Power

Catalysts

About ImmunityBio

ImmunityBio is a clinical stage immunotherapy company focused on using its IL-15 based ANKTIVA platform, natural killer cell therapies, and DNA vaccine vectors to treat cancer and immune related conditions.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• ANKTIVA already has approvals in bladder cancer and nonsmall cell lung cancer in several major jurisdictions, and management highlights that ANKTIVA is authorized across 33 countries. If physician uptake broadens from the current U.S. led revenue base, this could influence product revenue and earnings power over time.
• The company reports that ANKTIVA net product revenue reached US$113 million in 2025 with a 7x year over year increase and a 750% unit volume increase. This suggests capacity to scale within an established commercial infrastructure that could affect operating leverage, SG&A efficiency, and the path toward earnings break even.
• ImmunityBio is positioning ANKTIVA as the backbone across multiple modalities, including combinations with BCG, checkpoint inhibitors, CAR NK, m ceNK, and DNA vaccine vectors in several tumor types. Success in even a subset of these programs could broaden the addressable revenue base and potentially improve gross margins as fixed manufacturing assets are utilized more fully.
• Management reports that an FDA authorized expanded access program for recombinant BCG has roughly 100 active or activating sites and around 580 patients treated. A planned BLA for the BCG naive bladder cancer indication in Q4 2026, together with ongoing BCG shortages, could support additional volume for ANKTIVA combinations and influence long term product revenue and cash flow.
• The early introduction of the askIB internal AI platform and the NANT Leonardo robotic cell manufacturing system aims to automate complex production and enterprise processes. If effective at scale, these initiatives could affect manufacturing cost per dose, net margins, and capital efficiency as the CAR NK and m ceNK programs move further into commercial stages.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on ImmunityBio compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming ImmunityBio's revenue will grow by 140.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -310.2% today to 42.8% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $671.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.67) by about April 2029, up from -$351.4 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $427.0 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 53.2x on those 2029 earnings, up from -22.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.1x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• ImmunityBio remains heavily reliant on ANKTIVA and a concentrated set of oncology indications, so any future safety signals, weaker than expected real world outcomes, or competing therapies in bladder or lung cancer could limit physician adoption and pricing power. This would affect net product revenue growth and delay a shift from a net loss position toward profitability.
• The business model is built around long term development of a broad BioShield platform, including CAR NK, m ceNK, DNA vaccine vectors, and recombinant BCG. Setbacks such as slower trial enrollment, inconclusive data, regulatory delays, or failure to secure anticipated approvals like the planned BLA for BCG naive bladder cancer in Q4 2026 could reduce the breadth of the future product portfolio, weigh on future revenue diversity, and constrain earnings potential.
• The company is investing heavily in advanced manufacturing and AI enabled automation, including the NANT Leonardo robotic system and askIB across the enterprise. If these technologies prove more costly, slower to scale, or less effective than planned, manufacturing efficiency gains may not materialize. This would keep cost of goods and operating expenses elevated and pressure net margins.
• International expansion depends on partners such as Accord, Biopharma, and Cigalah, as well as country by country reimbursement decisions in Europe and execution in regions such as the Middle East and North Africa. Any delays in market access, weaker than expected uptake outside the U.S., or geopolitical and health system constraints could leave ANKTIVA revenues concentrated in a single geography, increase earnings volatility, and limit cash generation for pipeline investment.
• ImmunityBio reports a net loss of US$351.4 million in 2025, carries related party convertible notes of US$505 million and a revenue interest liability of about US$325 million, and used US$304.9 million in cash for operating activities. If ANKTIVA growth, new indications, and platform programs do not progress as management intends, the company may need additional capital on less favorable terms, which would affect earnings per share, interest expense, and the path toward a sustainable net margin.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for ImmunityBio is $23.0, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $14.8. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of ImmunityBio's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $23.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $11.0.
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $1.6 billion, earnings will come to $671.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 53.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
• Given the current share price of $7.67, the analyst price target of $23.0 is 66.7% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.