Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 10%

TRUE B: Expanding Verified Call Solutions Will Drive Recovery As Execution Uncertainty Eases

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Truecaller from about SEK 56.50 to roughly SEK 50.80. They cite slightly higher discount rates, marginally softer long term growth and profitability assumptions, and a lower future earnings multiple, while still acknowledging the company’s solid fundamental profile.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Truecaller reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance, with both bullish and bearish analysts adjusting their price targets to reflect updated growth and risk assumptions.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that even after downward target revisions, the implied upside from current levels remains attractive relative to Truecaller’s demonstrated user growth and monetization potential.
JPMorgan’s decision to maintain an Overweight rating despite trimming its target suggests continued confidence in the company’s ability to execute on product expansion and advertising growth.
Supportive commentary emphasizes that Truecaller’s core franchise and recurring demand for its services provide a solid base for mid to long term earnings growth, even with more conservative assumptions.
Several valuation frameworks still point to Truecaller trading at a discount to its perceived long term growth profile. This indicates room for multiple expansion if execution remains consistent.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have lowered targets to incorporate slightly weaker long term revenue and margin trajectories. This reflects concerns that growth may normalize more quickly than previously expected.
Higher discount rates and a more cautious risk premium are being applied, which signals rising uncertainty around macro conditions and competitive intensity in Truecaller’s key markets.
Rating resets to Hold levels suggest some see the risk or reward balance as more evenly poised, with less conviction that near term catalysts will drive significant outperformance.
The use of lower future earnings multiples indicates skepticism that Truecaller can sustain prior valuation peaks without clearer visibility on margin expansion and new revenue streams.

What's in the News

SmartBuy entered a strategic partnership with Truecaller to use the Customer Experience Solution Suite, delivering verified, branded calls that display SmartBuy’s name, logo, and green verification badge to build trust and streamline customer interactions in retail. (Key Developments)
Through the SmartBuy partnership, Truecaller enables contextual calling for events such as order confirmations, delivery updates, collections, and support, helping SmartBuy improve transparency, engagement, and long term customer relationships. (Key Developments)
Truecaller launched its Verified Business Customer Experience Platform in Europe, offering enterprises verified caller ID, secure calls, call reason, call me back functionality, and analytics to combat fraud, increase pickup rates, and improve customer engagement. (Key Developments)
The Verified Business platform is already used by around 3,000 businesses in more than 30 markets globally, particularly in sectors like BFSI, delivery, and transportation where answering unknown numbers is a major friction point. (Key Developments)
Truecaller unveiled adVantage, an AI powered recommendation engine that uses anonymized behavioral intelligence to personalize business messaging and ads, resulting in up to 50 percent higher click through rates and a 400 percent lift in open rates in early tests. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Consensus analyst price target has fallen moderately, from about SEK 56.50 to roughly SEK 50.80, reflecting more conservative expectations.
The discount rate has risen slightly, from approximately 6.40 percent to about 6.48 percent, implying a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
Revenue growth assumptions have edged down, from roughly 12.54 percent to about 12.38 percent, indicating a small downgrade to long term growth expectations.
Net profit margin forecasts have softened slightly, from around 26.81 percent to about 26.67 percent, suggesting modestly lower anticipated profitability.
The future P/E multiple has fallen meaningfully, from about 30.2x to roughly 27.5x, signaling a more cautious stance on Truecaller’s longer term valuation.

Strong expansion in emerging markets and increased demand for security features are driving robust user growth and subscription uptake, boosting recurring revenue and profitability.
Diversified revenue streams from B2B services and proprietary ad tech improve margin stability, reduce reliance on ads, and support long-term profit growth through network effects.
Heavy dependence on foreign ad revenues and third-party platforms leaves the company vulnerable to currency risk, market maturity, and unpredictable shifts in advertiser demand and tax rates.

Catalysts

About Truecaller

Develops and publishes mobile caller ID applications for individuals and business in India, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid expansion of smartphone and mobile internet adoption in emerging markets, especially outside India (e.g., Middle East and Africa), is unlocking strong user growth (15% YoY in Q2) and providing a larger addressable market for Truecaller's services, thereby supporting long-term recurring revenue and earnings growth.
Heightened concerns about digital security and fraud are driving greater demand for Truecaller's advanced spam/fraud call detection solutions, which, combined with the company's scale and improved AI capabilities, are reinforcing the value proposition, supporting premium subscription uptake and higher ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), positively impacting both top-line and margin expansion.
The ongoing pivot towards higher-margin, recurring subscription revenue-with notable acceleration on iOS (25% QoQ subscriber growth/50% YoY)-and expansion of B2B offerings (Truecaller for Business, identity APIs) are diversifying revenue streams, lowering reliance on cyclical ad spend, and creating more stable, predictable cash flows and long-term profit growth.
Strategic developments in proprietary ad tech (launch of premium ad formats like Masthead and Play, and growth in direct ad sales) are improving gross margins and deepening integration with advertisers, positioning the business to capture a greater share of ad wallet as digital communication further penetrates emerging markets, with positive implications for net margins.
Truecaller's dominant market share, strong brand recognition, and community-powered data advantages reinforce network effects in high-growth regions, contributing to low churn and reduced marketing costs, further improving net margin stability and supporting robust long-term earnings power.

Truecaller Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Truecaller's revenue will grow by 20.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 24.4% today to 31.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach SEK 1.1 billion (and earnings per share of SEK 2.84) by about September 2028, up from SEK 488.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as SEK838.0 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.4x on those 2028 earnings, down from 30.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the SE Software industry at 35.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.28% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Truecaller Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Truecaller's heavy reliance on foreign (mainly India) revenues exposes it to significant FX risk against the strengthening Swedish krona, which can materially reduce reported revenue and profit growth when translated to SEK, negatively impacting overall earnings and perceived growth.
The majority of ad revenues (85%-90%) are generated through third-party programmatic platforms, making the business vulnerable to external macro factors, softening advertiser demand (e.g., geopolitical conflicts like India-Pakistan tensions), and market-wide CPM stagnation, which can lead to revenue and margin volatility.
While direct ad sales and Truecaller for Business segments are growing, both contribute only a minor share of total revenue (direct ad sales at ~10-15%), so financial performance remains highly sensitive to fluctuations and saturation in the programmatic advertising market, limiting EPS upside if these high-margin streams do not scale fast enough.
With increasing revenue being recognized in India, a market with a higher (35%) corporate tax rate relative to Sweden (21%), the company's effective tax rate is expected to trend upward over time, reducing net profit margins as a greater share of future profit growth is taxed more heavily.
Despite product innovations, the text notes that DAU and user growth do not automatically translate to proportional ad impression or monetizable opportunity growth, indicating possible signs of market maturity or ad load saturation, which could constrain revenue-per-user expansion and overall top-line growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK77.333 for Truecaller based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of SEK95.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just SEK60.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be SEK3.5 billion, earnings will come to SEK1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
Given the current share price of SEK43.7, the analyst price target of SEK77.33 is 43.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Truecaller?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Product Expansion And User Engagement Will Drive Stronger Results Ahead