Last Update 25 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 65%

TRUE B: Marketplace Model Concerns Will Create Longer Term Entry Opportunity

Analysts now see Truecaller’s fair value at $21.00, down from $60.00. This reflects more cautious assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples in light of recent sector commentary that highlights slower rollout timelines and more listing-style business models at peers.

Analyst Commentary

Recent sector research around online auto platforms has fed into a more cautious tone on Truecaller’s potential business trajectory and valuation. While the core discussion was centered on Amazon Autos and used car platforms, analysts are drawing parallels to listing style models, which they see as a closer reference point for what investors might be willing to pay for marketplace driven revenues.

In particular, commentary that Amazon Autos currently operates a third party listing model, similar to platforms like CarGurus and TrueCar, has sharpened the debate on how much valuation headroom there is for companies that depend heavily on lead generation and marketplace style monetisation instead of fully integrated services.

This is feeding into more measured views on where multiples could settle for Truecaller over time, especially if its monetisation profile is perceived as closer to a listings or marketplace framework than a fully owned and controlled transaction platform.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to listing style peers as a reference point, arguing that business models that sit closer to lead generation and advertising could justify more conservative P/E multiples for Truecaller.
The shift in sector commentary toward slower rollout timelines and marketplace style approaches leads some to flag execution risk, with concerns that user engagement and monetisation ramp could be lumpier than previously reflected in fair value estimates.
There is growing caution that if investors increasingly compare Truecaller to listings platforms rather than fully vertically integrated operators, the market may ascribe less premium to its growth profile and compress valuation ranges.
Bearish analysts also highlight the risk that investors focus more on proven, scaled transaction based models in the peer group, which could put pressure on Truecaller’s relative positioning and support the move to a lower fair value anchor at $21.00.

What's in the News

Preliminary, unaudited guidance for Q4 2025 points to total net sales of SEK 451 million and total revenues of SEK 462.4 million, with net profit of SEK 60.4 million, and management flagging a 1% decline in net sales in constant currencies versus the same quarter a year earlier (Corporate guidance).
Truecaller launched Family Protection, a new in app feature on Android and iOS that lets up to five people form a trusted group, share spam protection tools, and, on Android, allow a Family Admin to remotely end suspicious calls and manage blocklists (Product announcement).
Family Protection is free to use but sits alongside the Premium Family plan, which covers up to five people and adds stronger spam blocking, automatic rejection of high risk numbers, and an ad free experience. This ties into the company’s focus on recurring subscription revenues and user stickiness (Product announcement).
Family Protection is initially rolling out in four pilot markets: Sweden, Chile, Malaysia, and Kenya. Expansion into additional regions, including India, is planned for the first quarter of 2026 (Product announcement).
Retailer SmartBuy adopted the Truecaller Customer Experience Solution Suite so its calls show a verified name, logo, and green badge, with added call context such as order confirmations and delivery updates, aimed at clearer, more trusted customer communication (Client announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: cut significantly from $60.00 to $21.00 per share, pointing to a much more cautious stance on what investors might be willing to pay.
Discount Rate: nudged up slightly from 6.41% to 6.43%, implying a modestly higher required return on Truecaller’s equity risk.
Revenue Growth: reduced sharply from 18.37% to 2.73%, reflecting a more muted outlook for top line expansion compared with earlier assumptions.
Net Profit Margin: trimmed from 29.10% to 18.41%, indicating that analysts now build in a less generous long term profitability profile.
Future P/E: brought down from 25.93x to 21.51x, suggesting a lower assumed earnings multiple applied to Truecaller’s projected profits.

Regulatory tightening and evolving platform policies could restrict core service functionality, raising compliance costs and threatening user retention and future revenue growth.
Heavy dependence on select geographies and rising competition from device makers and telecom carriers risks eroding both market share and recurring earnings.
Heavy exposure to India and ad-driven revenues, combined with currency and tax headwinds, threatens earnings stability, scalability, and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

About Truecaller

Develops and publishes mobile caller ID applications for individuals and business in India, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

While Truecaller is benefiting from ongoing global smartphone adoption and rising concerns about digital communication security, the company faces mounting regulatory risks, particularly as data privacy laws tighten and could restrict the data necessary for its services. This may result in higher compliance costs or feature limitations, directly impacting net margins in the coming years.
Although user growth remains strong, especially in emerging markets where smartphone adoption is rapidly expanding, heavy reliance on India and select geographies leaves Truecaller exposed to region-specific regulation and competition. This concentration risk could suppress sustained revenue growth if local conditions shift unfavorably.
The continued launch of new enterprise solutions and AI-driven anti-fraud features positions Truecaller to capture new high-margin B2B revenue, yet intensifying competition from device makers and telecom carriers integrating native spam blocking could erode market share, potentially flattening ARPU growth and recurring earnings prospects.
Despite buoyant demand for caller ID, fraud prevention, and secure business communications tied to increased digital transformation, evolving operating system policies-such as restricted API access or platform-imposed limits-might undercut the utility of Truecaller's offering, negatively impacting future user retention and ultimately top-line growth.
While adoption of premium subscriptions and new ad formats could support earnings, the durability of ad-supported monetization is questionable. Consumer fatigue with advertising, potential ad-blocker usage, and stricter cross-border data regulations all threaten to dampen advertising revenues and complicate operational scalability, increasing cost pressure on the business over the long term.

Truecaller Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Truecaller compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts.
The bearish analysts are assuming Truecaller's revenue will grow by 18.4% annually over the next 3 years.
The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 24.4% today to 29.1% in 3 years time.
The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach SEK 964.6 million (and earnings per share of SEK 2.77) by about September 2028, up from SEK 488.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 30.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the SE Software industry at 35.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.28% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Truecaller Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy dependence on emerging markets, especially India, exposes Truecaller to region-specific risks such as regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and intensified competition, all of which could negatively impact revenue concentration, earnings stability, and the company's long-term growth trajectory.
Volatility in foreign exchange rates, particularly the strengthening Swedish krona against the Indian rupee, continues to have a substantial negative effect on reported revenues and profitability, presenting an ongoing risk to earnings quality and predictability for the foreseeable future.
Increased direct sales activity shifts more revenue to India, where effective tax rates are materially higher than in Sweden, resulting in a structural increase in the group's overall tax rate and a long-term drag on net margins.
Saturation of digital advertising markets, combined with already flat ad impressions and declining ad revenue per daily active user, signals a risk that advertising growth cannot keep pace with user growth, threatening overall revenue scalability and top-line growth rates.
Programmatic ad revenues continue to represent the bulk of ad income, making the company highly sensitive to fluctuations in advertiser demand and broader macroeconomic risks such as geopolitical tensions, which introduce volatility in quarterly revenues and undermine forecast accuracy for earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bearish price target for Truecaller is SEK60.0, which represents the lowest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Truecaller's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of SEK95.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just SEK60.0.
In order for you to agree with the bearish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be SEK3.3 billion, earnings will come to SEK964.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
Given the current share price of SEK43.7, the bearish analyst price target of SEK60.0 is 27.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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