TRUE B: Expanding Verified Call Solutions Will Drive Recovery As Execution Uncertainty Eases

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Truecaller from about SEK 56.50 to roughly SEK 50.80. They cite slightly higher discount rates, marginally softer long term growth and profitability assumptions, and a lower future earnings multiple, while still acknowledging the company’s solid fundamental profile.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Truecaller reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance, with both bullish and bearish analysts adjusting their price targets to reflect updated growth and risk assumptions.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that even after downward target revisions, the implied upside from current levels remains attractive relative to Truecaller’s demonstrated user growth and monetization potential.
• JPMorgan’s decision to maintain an Overweight rating despite trimming its target suggests continued confidence in the company’s ability to execute on product expansion and advertising growth.
• Supportive commentary emphasizes that Truecaller’s core franchise and recurring demand for its services provide a solid base for mid to long term earnings growth, even with more conservative assumptions.
• Several valuation frameworks still point to Truecaller trading at a discount to its perceived long term growth profile. This indicates room for multiple expansion if execution remains consistent.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts have lowered targets to incorporate slightly weaker long term revenue and margin trajectories. This reflects concerns that growth may normalize more quickly than previously expected.
• Higher discount rates and a more cautious risk premium are being applied, which signals rising uncertainty around macro conditions and competitive intensity in Truecaller’s key markets.
• Rating resets to Hold levels suggest some see the risk or reward balance as more evenly poised, with less conviction that near term catalysts will drive significant outperformance.
• The use of lower future earnings multiples indicates skepticism that Truecaller can sustain prior valuation peaks without clearer visibility on margin expansion and new revenue streams.

What's in the News

• SmartBuy entered a strategic partnership with Truecaller to use the Customer Experience Solution Suite, delivering verified, branded calls that display SmartBuy’s name, logo, and green verification badge to build trust and streamline customer interactions in retail. (Key Developments)
• Through the SmartBuy partnership, Truecaller enables contextual calling for events such as order confirmations, delivery updates, collections, and support, helping SmartBuy improve transparency, engagement, and long term customer relationships. (Key Developments)
• Truecaller launched its Verified Business Customer Experience Platform in Europe, offering enterprises verified caller ID, secure calls, call reason, call me back functionality, and analytics to combat fraud, increase pickup rates, and improve customer engagement. (Key Developments)
• The Verified Business platform is already used by around 3,000 businesses in more than 30 markets globally, particularly in sectors like BFSI, delivery, and transportation where answering unknown numbers is a major friction point. (Key Developments)
• Truecaller unveiled adVantage, an AI powered recommendation engine that uses anonymized behavioral intelligence to personalize business messaging and ads, resulting in up to 50 percent higher click through rates and a 400 percent lift in open rates in early tests. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus analyst price target has fallen moderately, from about SEK 56.50 to roughly SEK 50.80, reflecting more conservative expectations.
• The discount rate has risen slightly, from approximately 6.40 percent to about 6.48 percent, implying a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
• Revenue growth assumptions have edged down, from roughly 12.54 percent to about 12.38 percent, indicating a small downgrade to long term growth expectations.
• Net profit margin forecasts have softened slightly, from around 26.81 percent to about 26.67 percent, suggesting modestly lower anticipated profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has fallen meaningfully, from about 30.2x to roughly 27.5x, signaling a more cautious stance on Truecaller’s longer term valuation.