Last Update 11 Dec 25

SGMO: Accelerated Approval Pathway Is Expected To Drive Upside Through 2026

Analysts have lowered their price target on Sangamo Therapeutics from $5.00 to $1.00 per share, citing a more cautious stance as they await greater clarity on a potential Fabry partnership, despite an extended cash runway and a reaffirmed accelerated approval path.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts are reassessing Sangamo Therapeutics with a more balanced view, emphasizing both the company’s de-risked regulatory path and the uncertainties that could weigh on execution and valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

The reaffirmed accelerated approval pathway using eGFR slope as the primary endpoint is viewed as a key de-risking event, potentially supporting faster time to market and value realization if clinical data remain supportive.
The extended cash runway into the first quarter of 2026 reduces near term financing risk, giving management more flexibility to prioritize pipeline execution and partner discussions without immediate dilution pressure.
Greater regulatory clarity around Fabry disease could enhance the asset’s profile, providing a foundation for a future partnership that may validate the platform and support a re rating in the shares.
The reduced price target is seen by some bullish analysts as resetting expectations to a more achievable level, which could improve the risk reward profile if the company delivers on key upcoming milestones.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts view the cut in the price target from prior levels as a signal that upside from current programs may be more limited than previously assumed, particularly if Fabry partnering timelines slip.
Dependence on a single, high impact partnership for Fabry disease is seen as a concentration risk, with concerns that slower than expected deal progress could delay non dilutive funding and weigh on growth prospects.
While the cash runway is extended, some analysts question whether it will be sufficient to fully fund pivotal activities and commercialization readiness, raising the possibility of future capital needs that could pressure valuation.
The shift to a more neutral stance suggests lingering execution risk around clinical, regulatory, and business development milestones, which may limit multiple expansion until clearer evidence of progress emerges.

What's in the News

FDA granted Fast Track Designation to ST-503, Sangamo's investigational epigenetic regulator for intractable pain due to small fiber neuropathy, supporting expedited development and regulatory interactions as Phase 1/2 enrollment continues (Key Developments).
FDA accepted Sangamo's request for a rolling Biologics License Application submission for isaralgagene civaparvovec, or ST-920, in Fabry disease, reaffirming use of eGFR slope as the primary endpoint for an accelerated approval pathway (Key Developments).
Updated Phase 1/2 STAAR study data for ST-920 presented at ICIEM2025 showed a positive mean annualized eGFR slope at 52 weeks and multi organ clinical benefits compared with current standards of care, reinforcing the potential of the one-time gene therapy (Key Developments).
Nasdaq granted Sangamo a 180 day extension, until April 27, 2026, to regain compliance with the minimum one dollar bid price requirement, with delisting risk remaining if the share price does not recover or any appeal is unsuccessful (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at 3.25 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment despite the lower price target.
Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.34 percent to 7.31 percent, reflecting a modestly lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth: Increased meaningfully from approximately 78.7 percent to 94.9 percent, signaling higher long term growth expectations for the company’s pipeline and potential launches.
Net Profit Margin: Risen significantly from about 14.5 percent to 34.5 percent, implying a materially more optimistic outlook on future operating leverage and profitability.
Future P/E: Declined substantially from roughly 60.7x to 19.7x, suggesting expectations for stronger earnings relative to the prior valuation framework or a more conservative multiple being applied.

Positive clinical data in Fabry disease and strong market enthusiasm position Sangamo for rapid adoption, margin improvement, and significant revenue growth upon approval.
Progress in non-opioid neurology therapeutics, industry partnerships, and global regulatory trends expand the pipeline, derisk funding, and boost long-term revenue prospects.
Sangamo faces substantial funding, pipeline progression, partnership, competitive, and industry risks that threaten its revenue prospects, shareholder value, and future financial sustainability.

Catalysts

About Sangamo Therapeutics

A clinical-stage genomic medicine company, focuses on translating science into medicines that transform the lives of patients and families afflicted with serious diseases in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The successful Phase 1/2 STAAR study in Fabry disease-demonstrating clinically meaningful improvement over existing standards and positive durability-positions Sangamo for potential accelerated FDA approval in 2026, expanding its addressable patient pool and setting the stage for substantial near-term revenue inflection and margin improvement upon launch.
Strong patient and physician enthusiasm for Sangamo's Fabry gene therapy, together with its superiority to current burdensome treatments, signals likely rapid market adoption once approved, enhancing the potential for fast ramp in top-line growth versus investor expectations.
Sangamo's advancement to a clinical-stage neurology genomic medicine company with initiation of Phase 1/2 studies in chronic neuropathic pain (Nav1.7 program) leverages growing healthcare demand for innovative, non-opioid pain therapeutics and expands the company's pipeline of high-value, long-term commercial opportunities, supporting future revenue diversification and margin expansion.
Ongoing strategic discussions with potential partners to commercialize the Fabry disease asset and outlicense other platform technologies could inject non-dilutive capital, derisk funding needs, and unlock major milestone payments or high-margin licensing revenue, improving both net margins and earnings visibility.
Increased global acceptance and policy support for gene therapies-including regulatory incentives for rare diseases-reduces commercialization barriers, improves payer reimbursement prospects, and amplifies revenue potential for Sangamo's therapies as the aging population and personalized medicine trends drive secular growth in demand.

Sangamo Therapeutics Earnings and Revenue Growth

Sangamo Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Sangamo Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 27.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Sangamo Therapeutics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Sangamo Therapeutics's profit margin will increase from -77.5% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Sangamo Therapeutics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $27.0 million (and earnings per share of $0.07) by about September 2028, up from $-63.3 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $82 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-131.6 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 68.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.86%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Sangamo Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Sangamo's current cash runway only funds operations into Q4 2025, and its ability to continue as a going concern is explicitly contingent on rapidly securing a Fabry commercialization partner or additional capital, creating significant risk of ongoing dilutive equity raises or funding gaps that could erode shareholder value and depress future earnings and EPS.
The company's pipeline remains heavily pre-commercial, with all core neurology and prion disease programs either in early clinical or preclinical stages; any delays in clinical data, regulatory submissions, or failure to receive timely acceleration from the FDA will postpone potential revenue streams and extend the period of high cash burn and net losses.
The text explicitly highlights a challenging operating environment and the need to secure strategic partnerships-if broader industry rationalization, pharmaceutical consolidation, or shifting pharma priorities result in fewer or less lucrative deals, Sangamo may see reduced milestone payments and operational funding, pressuring revenues and margin potential.
Heightened competition in gene therapy and gene editing, particularly with CRISPR and base editing platforms gaining traction, could diminish the commercial viability of Sangamo's zinc finger nuclease (ZFN) platform, leading to diminished future licensing, partnering opportunities, and ultimately impacting long-term revenue and gross margins.
Secular industry risks-such as increasing regulatory scrutiny for genomic medicines, uncertain future reimbursement for high-cost gene therapies, and possible global economic or healthcare policy headwinds-could curtail addressable market growth and limit the long-term revenue and earnings upside even if Sangamo advances its pipeline successfully.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $4.1 for Sangamo Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $10.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $167.9 million, earnings will come to $27.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 68.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.
Given the current share price of $0.53, the analyst price target of $4.1 is 87.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

FDA Approval In 2026 Will Extend Fabry Gene Therapy Prospects