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Meta’s Bold Bet on AI Pays Off

Published
06 Nov 24
Updated
23 Dec 25
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1Y
9.2%
7D
-0.5%

Author's Valuation

US$723.118.7% undervalued intrinsic discount

yiannisz's Fair Value

Last Update 23 Dec 25

Meta Stock: When Attention, AI, and Advertising Collide

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) sits at the intersection of three forces shaping the modern internet: human attention, artificial intelligence, and advertising economics. While debates around privacy, content moderation, and platform influence continue, Meta’s core business remains deceptively simple—capturing attention and converting it into measurable outcomes for advertisers.

What has changed is how that conversion happens. Meta is no longer just a social media company. It is becoming an AI-driven discovery engine that decides what billions of users see, engage with, and ultimately act on.

From Social Graphs to Algorithmic Discovery

Historically, Meta’s platforms—Facebook and Instagram—were built around social graphs. Users saw content from friends, family, and followed accounts. That model limited scale: attention was constrained by who you knew.

Today, Meta’s feeds are increasingly powered by AI-driven recommendation systems. Content discovery is no longer tied to relationships but to predicted interest. This shift dramatically expands engagement potential, allowing Meta to surface content from anywhere in its ecosystem if algorithms believe it will retain attention.

For advertisers, this means reach and targeting improve even as traditional social connections weaken.

Expert Insight: Control of Distribution Is the Real Power

According to Benson Varghese from Versus Texas, Meta’s most underestimated asset is not content creation or community—it’s distribution control. He notes that as platforms move from social networks to attention engines, the ability to algorithmically direct traffic becomes a form of power that few companies possess.

Varghese emphasizes that advertisers don’t pay Meta for creativity alone; they pay for outcomes. When AI optimizes delivery in real time—adjusting audience, format, and placement—advertising becomes less about brand storytelling and more about performance. In his view, platforms that control both data and distribution are positioned to monetize attention far more efficiently than those relying on user-driven sharing.

This perspective reframes Meta less as a media company and more as an automated demand-allocation system.

AI Improves Ads Even When Users Don’t Notice

Meta’s AI investments are often misunderstood as consumer-facing features. In reality, their most immediate impact is behind the scenes. AI improves ad relevance, pricing efficiency, creative testing, and measurement accuracy.

Advertisers increasingly rely on Meta’s systems to determine what works. That reliance strengthens pricing power. Even as marketers complain about opacity, they continue allocating budget because results justify spend.

This creates a reinforcing loop: more data improves AI models, better models improve performance, and performance sustains advertiser demand.

Reels, Messaging, and the Monetization Gap

Short-form video and messaging remain areas of focus. Reels has driven engagement but monetizes at lower rates than traditional feeds. Messaging platforms like WhatsApp represent massive user bases with underdeveloped revenue streams.

Meta’s strategy is patient. Rather than forcing monetization prematurely, it prioritizes engagement and infrastructure. History suggests this approach works—Facebook News Feed and Instagram both followed similar paths.

For investors, the key is recognizing that monetization lag does not equal value absence.

Cost Discipline Changed the Narrative

Meta’s “year of efficiency” marked a strategic reset. Headcount reductions, infrastructure optimization, and disciplined capital allocation restored investor confidence after heavy metaverse spending.

This discipline matters. Meta can fund AI and long-term initiatives internally without sacrificing profitability. Unlike smaller platforms, it does not need to choose between innovation and earnings—it can pursue both.

That flexibility is rare at Meta’s scale.

Valuation Reflects Execution, Not Optionality Alone

META’s valuation increasingly reflects execution rather than speculative future bets. Advertising remains strong, margins have recovered, and AI investments are translating into real efficiency gains.

The metaverse remains optionality rather than a requirement for the thesis. Investors no longer need to believe in distant virtual worlds to justify ownership. They need only believe that attention continues to monetize—and that Meta controls attention at scale.

Conclusion

Meta’s evolution is not about becoming something new. It is about refining what it already does best: allocating attention efficiently. For investors, META represents ownership in one of the most advanced attention-monetization systems ever built. As long as businesses need customers and customers spend time online, the platforms that algorithmically connect the two will remain economically powerful—and Meta remains firmly in that category.

Meta Platforms, Inc.  (META) announced very strong Q3 2024 results underlined by revenue growth and a strong commitment to AI and the metaverse.

Revenue for the quarter grew 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion, led by strong ad revenue, progress in AI, and strong user engagement across Meta’s platforms.

Let’s dive into Meta’s earnings performance in key areas: revenue drivers, investments in AI, and the struggling Reality Labs segment.

Meta’s Ad Revenue Soars 19% in Q3, Driven by AI-Powered Targeting and Global Growth

Most of Meta’s Q3 revenue came from the ad business within the segment known as Family of Apps: Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Advertising revenue increased to $39.9 billion, up 19% year over year. That was partly because of higher prices for ads and partly because of more ad impressions. Meta improved ad-targeting features through its AI models, which helped bump ad relevance and engagement and lift revenue in the digitally competitive ad market.

Geographically, the strongest growth in ad revenue for Meta was seen in the Asia-Pacific and European regions, as both saw high engagement and demand for ad placements. The U.S. and Canada remained the most profitable regions for Meta, although growth rates were relatively slower due to market maturity. Net income surged an impressive 35% at Meta on improved profitability from operational efficiencies and cost management despite ongoing investments in future technologies.

AI Investments: Powering User Engagement and Monetization

In Made in Meta’s Q3 report, AI was right at the core of its growth strategy. In fact, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted that AI-driven personalization across the board had improved user engagement. That makes Meta’s AI assistant, Meta AI, a critical component driving enhanced video and content recommendations, boosting time spent on both Facebook and Instagram. The AI-powered enhancements resulted in an 8% lift in time spent on Facebook and a 6% gain on Instagram, proof of AI’s tangible impact on user retention and satisfaction.

Ultimately, Meta’s Llama model is a powerful language model that has been very widely adopted across its platforms. This enables the company to inject generative AI into content moderation, recommendations, and ad targeting. These applications enhance user experience and provide better targeting for advertisers, driving up conversion rates and raising ad revenue. The huge investment in AI infrastructure reflects the belief that AI will be a key driver of engagement and revenue in years to come.

Meta’s Bold $40B Bet on AI and VR: Heavy Spending, Higher Margins, and a Competitive Edge in Digital Engagement

Capital expenditures in Q3 reached $9.2 billion as Meta continued building out its AI and VR infrastructure. For 2024, Meta increased its CapEx guidance to $38-40 billion, up from an earlier projection. That’s a load of spending reflective of ongoing needs for infrastructure supporting AI and expanding Reality Labs.

Meta plans to ramp up infrastructure spending in 2025 in part because the operating cost from its increasing data center and server capacity, also needed to run AI workloads and applications for the metaverse, keeps climbing. For all that spending, Meta’s operating margin improved to 43% from 40% a year ago, which suggests that the company is finding efficiencies even as it invests heavily. Efficiency probably comes from disciplined management of non-essential expenses and steady revenue growth in its core advertising business, which continues to offset the losses coming from Reality Labs.

According to the affiliate network expert Stephen Do, Meta’s unique approach to AI integration leverages its vast, interconnected ecosystem across its Family of Apps, setting it apart from other tech giants. Using extensive first-party data, Meta enhances user engagement and ad relevancy through sophisticated AI models that deliver highly personalized content and ads.

Lastly, Meta integrates advanced AI tools directly into its apps, such as image generation and animation, making AI accessible to everyday users. This strategy strengthens user retention and opens new avenues for content creators and advertisers, positioning Meta as a leader in AI-driven digital engagement.

Takeaway

Meta’s Q3 2024 results present a company aptly juggling growth, efficiency, and investing for the future. Prudent cost management and strategic geographic expansion underlined its resilience in the core ad business. Meanwhile, Meta continues to invest heavily in AI and the metaverse, a premeditated risk to secure its position at the forefront of the next wave of digital innovation. Though significantly high losses at Reality Labs in the near term are considered a challenge, this might be a part of Meta’s long-term vision to redefine the future of social media and digital interaction. 

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Disclaimer

The user yiannisz has a position in NasdaqGS:META. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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