Last Update 02 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 1.32%

AIRG: Consumer Broadband And 5G Pipeline Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target on Airgain by about $0.08 to roughly $7.00. This reflects recent research that balances a mixed Q3 update and moderating Consumer Broadband strength with at least one newly bullish initiation on the stock.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Airgain is mixed, with one camp leaning more constructive and another dialing back expectations following the recent Q3 update. Here is how those views break down for you as an investor.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the recent initiation as a sign that there is still interest in Airgain's equity story, even with a trimmed blended price target around $7.00.
They point to continued demand in Consumer Broadband through calendar year 2026 as a potential support for revenue and execution, despite expectations for some moderation in Q4.
These analysts appear comfortable maintaining positive ratings while the stock trades near the revised price targets, which indicates they still see room for the company to execute on its plan.
The mix of a new bullish initiation alongside target cuts suggests some analysts believe the current valuation already reflects a fair amount of caution around the core business.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight the "mixed" Q3 report and outlook as a key reason for trimming price targets, and this feeds directly into a more cautious view on potential upside.
They expect strength in Consumer Broadband to moderate in Q4, which raises questions about how well the rest of the core businesses can support growth if that segment slows.
The reference to weaker trends elsewhere in the core businesses signals concern about execution risk and the durability of the current business mix.
With the price target reset to $7 from $8, these analysts are signaling that their prior assumptions about growth and profitability may have been too optimistic given the latest information.

What's in the News

Airgain signed a commercial partnership agreement with a U.S. based telecom systems integrator to support the nationwide rollout of its Lighthouse Smart 5G NCR across enterprise and other markets, giving the company access to an active pipeline of more than 2,000 qualified sites across multiple verticals (Key Developments).
The Lighthouse Smart 5G NCR product is a compact, network controlled repeater designed to extend 5G coverage indoors and outdoors without fiber backhaul, targeting upgrades of existing 4G Distributed Antenna System deployments to 5G and aiming to simplify deployment and lower total cost of ownership for enterprises (Key Developments).
Airgain issued earnings guidance for the three months ending 31 December 2025, with expected sales in a range of US$12.0m to US$14.0m, or US$13.0m at the midpoint, and a projected GAAP net loss of US$1.6m, or US$0.13 per share at the midpoint (Key Developments).
The company secured a design win with a leading global CPE manufacturer for a next generation Wi Fi 7 fiber broadband gateway being developed for a major North American broadband operator, with the platform targeted for commercial launch in the second half of 2026 and expected shipments of more than 5,000,000 units within 5 years (Key Developments).
Airgain highlighted multiple development programs for Wi Fi 7 and 5G, as well as early Wi Fi 8 platform work with ODM partners, and emphasized its long running antenna design, testing, and benchmarking services that support wireless operators and service providers through the full product lifecycle (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from 6.33 to 6.25, pointing to a modestly lower implied assessment of Airgain's equity.
Discount Rate: reduced slightly from 8.65% to about 8.61%, indicating a small adjustment in the assumed risk profile.
Revenue Growth: lifted slightly from 9.67% to about 9.76%, reflecting a marginally higher growth assumption.
Net Profit Margin: reduced modestly from 8.19% to about 8.06%, suggesting slightly more conservative profitability expectations.
Future P/E: moved marginally lower from 17.86x to about 17.84x, implying a very small reset in the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

Expansion into advanced connectivity and IoT markets is fueling robust growth and improving long-term earnings visibility through increased adoption of Airgain's platforms.
Transitioning to high-margin, platform-based solutions and deepening customer relationships are structurally enhancing profitability and recurring revenue potential.
Delayed customer certifications and weak legacy segments threaten Airgain's revenue stability, while failed new platform adoption and expense shifts risk further operating losses and margin deterioration.

Catalysts

About Airgain

Provides wireless connectivity solutions that offers embedded components, external antennas, and integrated systems worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing adoption of advanced connectivity standards (e.g., Wi-Fi 7, 5G, eSIM) across consumer, enterprise, and public safety markets is driving a wave of device and infrastructure upgrades, directly benefiting Airgain's new product lines and supporting robust revenue growth as certification and deployment cycles conclude through 2026.
Rising global digital infrastructure investment-including utility grid modernization, smart cities, and industrial IoT-creates multi-year demand tailwinds for Airgain's IoT modems and integrated platforms (AC-Fleet and Lighthouse), boosting both top-line growth and long-term earnings visibility.
Investments in and growing traction for the AirgainConnect (AC-Fleet) and Lighthouse platforms position the company to transition from a low-margin hardware supplier to a higher-margin, platform-driven solutions provider, which is expected to structurally enhance company-wide gross margins and net profitability.
Deepening relationships with Tier 1 and Tier 2 customers, expanding sales pipelines, and multiple new certification milestones (e.g., AT&T FirstNet, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Europe) are poised to unlock larger-scale government and utility opportunities, potentially delivering step-change increases in recurring revenues and earnings as platform deployments scale.
Operational discipline, realignment of expenses from legacy products to growth platforms, and measured international expansion position Airgain to achieve near-term positive earnings while setting up for long-term, sustained revenue and profitability expansion as growth platforms mature and industry adoption accelerates.

Airgain Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Airgain's revenue will grow by 10.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Airgain will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Airgain's profit margin will increase from -11.9% to the average US Electronic industry of 9.0% in 3 years.
If Airgain's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $7.0 million (and earnings per share of $0.54) by about September 2028, up from $-6.7 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -7.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Electronic industry at 23.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.92% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.3%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Airgain Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Airgain's ability to generate significant revenue growth in its new platform segments (AirgainConnect and Lighthouse) is highly dependent on lengthy customer certification and deployment cycles-especially for Tier 1 and Tier 2 customers, which can take up to 18 months or longer, making timing of meaningful earnings contribution uncertain and exposing future revenue and profit growth to delays or failed conversions.
The company is experiencing ongoing softness and inventory overhang in key legacy segments such as automotive aftermarket and asset tracking, with little visibility to recovery, which may continue to weigh on overall revenue stability and margin performance.
Despite operational discipline, Airgain continues to post operating losses, with positive adjusted EBITDA and EPS projections hinging on stable existing markets and highly uncertain early platform contributions; persistent operating losses or failed scaling efforts could undermine long-term earnings and R&D investment capacity.
Airgain's increased investment in sales, marketing, and engineering for new growth platforms is being offset by significant expense reductions in legacy product lines; if new platforms do not ramp as anticipated, this expense realignment could expose the company to deteriorating gross margins and operating leverage.
The company's broad reliance on certification processes by third-party carriers and government agencies (which have already experienced unexpected delays) creates risk of further setbacks due to regulatory, technical, or customer-specific hurdles-potentially resulting in missed revenue opportunities and unpredictable cash flow.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $7.5 for Airgain based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $77.2 million, earnings will come to $7.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
Given the current share price of $4.22, the analyst price target of $7.5 is 43.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Advanced Connectivity Will Spur Global IoT Infrastructure Expansion