Last Update 27 Dec 25

INVZ: Upcoming Design Wins Will Drive Upside From Current Depressed Levels

Analysts have raised their price target on Innoviz Technologies by $1.00 to $2.50 per share, citing the stock's inexpensive valuation, strong design win potential over the next six months, and its favorable positioning to benefit from accelerating demand for advanced driver assistance systems.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research commentary reflects a generally constructive outlook on Innoviz Technologies, with the latest price target increase framed around improving growth prospects and discounted valuation levels.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that the new $2.50 price target implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, supported by what they view as an inexpensive valuation relative to the company’s long term revenue opportunity.
They emphasize Innoviz’s design win potential over the next six months as a key execution milestone, noting that even one sizable award could materially de risk growth forecasts and serve as a catalyst for multiple expansion.
Autonomous and advanced driver assistance technologies are expected to gain share in automaker budgets, and bullish analysts argue that Innoviz’s product positioning leaves it well placed to capture a disproportionate share of new program awards.
Commentary points to the company’s leveraging of existing relationships with global car makers as a way to accelerate pipeline conversion, which could support a faster ramp in revenue and enhance visibility for investors.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that the upgraded rating and higher price target already bake in a successful design win in the near term, leaving limited room for execution missteps without pressuring the stock.
There are concerns that overall adoption of advanced driver assistance features could be slower or lumpier than anticipated, which would delay expected revenue inflection and challenge current growth assumptions.
Some remain wary that Innoviz’s competitive landscape in lidar and autonomous technologies could intensify, potentially compressing margins and limiting the company’s ability to fully capitalize on its design pipeline.
Critics also note that, despite attractive long term potential, Innoviz still needs to demonstrate consistent contract conversion and delivery performance before the market will sustainably reward it with a higher valuation multiple.

What's in the News

Launched the InnovizThree LiDAR, a slimmer, lower power, and over 35% lower cost sensor than InnovizTwo. It is designed for flexible installation in vehicles and AI enhanced platforms while extending detection ranges beyond 250 meters (Company product announcement).
Confirmed participation at CES 2026 in Las Vegas, where Innoviz will showcase live demonstrations of InnovizThree and InnovizTwo short and long range platforms with blockage solution, as well as the InnovizSMART LiDAR sensor integrated with NVIDIA Jetson Orin, including pre scheduled test drives (Company event announcement).
Revealed as the short range LiDAR supplier for Daimler Truck and Torc Robotics, providing InnovizTwo sensors for series production SAE Level 4 autonomous Class 8 semi trucks. This includes integration into the autonomous Freightliner Cascadia for North American highway and regional routes (Client announcement).
Reiterated 2025 revenue guidance of $50 million to $60 million, described as more than double expected 2024 levels, underscoring management confidence in near term growth and program ramp up (Corporate guidance).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at $2.65 per share, reflecting no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment.
The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 11.06% to approximately 11.24%, implying a modestly higher required return on equity risk.
Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at about a 74.3% forecast, indicating stable expectations for top line expansion.
The Net Profit Margin has edged down fractionally from roughly 8.78% to 8.75%, a negligible change in long term profitability assumptions.
The Future P/E has risen slightly from about 38.8x to 39.0x, signaling a marginally higher multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expanding partnerships and entry into new markets are driving revenue growth, margin improvement, and increased financial stability for Innoviz.
Regulatory momentum and scaling production capabilities support broader adoption and long-term earnings growth through better cost management and market diversification.
Heavy reliance on uncertain development contracts, volatile margins, rising competition, and persistent cash burn threaten revenue stability, profitability, and long-term investor value.

Catalysts

About Innoviz Technologies

Manufactures and sells automotive grade LiDAR sensors and perception software to enable safe autonomous driving at a mass scale.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption and deployment of autonomous vehicles and robotaxi fleets-highlighted by Innoviz's agreements with top-5 global automotive OEMs and key players like Mobileye and Volkswagen-are expected to grow demand for Innoviz's LiDAR solutions, which supports material increases in future revenue and improved revenue visibility.
Expansion into nonautomotive markets, such as smart infrastructure, security, robotics, and traffic management, is driving incremental growth, with recently launched products like InnovizSMART already gaining early traction and commanding higher ASPs and margins, thereby improving long-term gross margins and revenue diversification.
Proliferation of regulatory and safety-driven requirements for advanced sensing (including LiDAR as a standard fit in certain vehicle lines) is enhancing the likelihood of mandatory adoption, which should underpin Innoviz's future addressable market and contribute to long-term revenue and earnings growth.
Ramping of high-volume manufacturing capacity (including the new Fabrinet production line) positions Innoviz to benefit from cost reductions and scale efficiencies, supporting gross margin improvement and setting the stage for margin expansion as volumes rise.
Growth in multi-year NRE (Non-Recurring Engineering) payments and supply agreements with multiple OEMs enhances financial flexibility, reduces customer concentration risk, and creates more predictable cash flows-all of which support sustainable earnings growth and lower cash burn as Innoviz scales.

Innoviz Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

Innoviz Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Innoviz Technologies's revenue will grow by 127.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Innoviz Technologies will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Innoviz Technologies's profit margin will increase from -197.9% to the average US Electronic industry of 9.0% in 3 years.
If Innoviz Technologies's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $40.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about September 2028, up from $-74.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electronic industry at 23.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.58%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Innoviz Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

A significant portion of current and projected revenues is tied to NRE (non-recurring engineering) payments associated with specific customer development milestones; any delays, non-conversion of statements of work into definitive production contracts, or changes in customer schedules could create lumpiness, unpredictability, or outright declines in revenue, directly impacting cash flow and long-term revenue growth.
Despite ramping production and signing SOWs with top OEMs, the company does not yet have firm, finalized series production awards for these large automotive programs-future revenues remain highly contingent on these development programs converting to mass production with standard fit rather than optional fit, posing customer concentration risks and revenue visibility issues.
Gross margins are highly variable and currently rely heavily on NRE contribution, with management warning of continued margin fluctuation as the product mix and production timing shift; if production volumes do not reach scale quickly, or if average selling prices for LiDAR units decrease due to competitive pressures, net margins and long-term earnings could suffer.
The industry trend toward increased competition and potential commoditization of LiDAR-combined with accelerating advancements in alternative sensor technologies (like camera/radar fusion and AI-powered vision systems)-could erode pricing power, threaten product differentiation, and reduce the long-term relevance of Innoviz's hardware, negatively impacting future revenues and margins.
Persistent high R&D and manufacturing costs, combined with the need to utilize equity offerings (such as the $75 million ATM program) to buffer cash burn and manage liquidity, indicate that Innoviz may not reach sustained profitability without continuous access to external capital-exposing shareholders to potential dilution and risking long-term earnings stability if capital markets tighten.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $2.933 for Innoviz Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $4.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $445.7 million, earnings will come to $40.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.6%.
Given the current share price of $1.52, the analyst price target of $2.93 is 48.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

INVZ: Design Wins Will Drive Future Upside in Autonomous Tech Demand