CBOE: New Event And Crypto Contracts Will Shape Balanced Forward Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price targets for Cboe Global Markets higher, with recent moves such as TD Cowen and Piper Sandler lifting their views by US$7 and US$5, while UBS raised its target to US$280 and Barclays modestly trimmed to US$295, reflecting updated expectations around volumes, volatility and earnings potential.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates offer a mixed picture, with most price targets moving higher but one trimming its view while still keeping a positive rating. Here is how bullish and more cautious voices are framing Cboe Global Markets right now.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts lifting price targets by US$5 to US$7 point to what they see as improved earnings potential, supported by updated assumptions around trading volumes and volatility across Cboe's platforms.
Some see the move to US$280 as justified by what they view as solid execution in the core exchange and derivatives franchises, which they believe can support the current valuation framework.
Research highlighting that total volumes in equities, options and futures "rose nicely" quarter over quarter, with volatility picking up sequentially, is being used by bullish analysts to support a more constructive outlook on future revenue and fee capture.
Updates ahead of Q4 reports suggest to bullish analysts that Cboe's multi asset model is holding up well across products, which they see as a support for premium P/E or P/B multiples compared with some peers.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, or those taking a more cautious stance, have trimmed price targets such as the move to US$295 from US$302. This signals some concern about how much upside is already reflected in the current share price.
The presence of Neutral ratings around a US$280 target suggests that some observers see a balance between execution strengths and valuation risk, rather than a clear case for further multiple expansion.
While higher volumes and increased volatility are acknowledged, cautious analysts appear focused on how sustainable these conditions are and what that could mean for earnings visibility into future periods.
Target resets across the brokers, asset managers and exchanges group ahead of Q4 also hint that some analysts are stress testing assumptions around growth and cost discipline. This can limit how aggressive they are willing to be with valuation targets.

What's in the News

Cboe plans to launch its own federally regulated prediction markets within months, focusing on event contracts and choosing to exclude sports related products for now. This would place it alongside other exchanges that are exploring this type of trading venue (Bloomberg).
Cboe Global Markets announced plans to launch futures and options on the equal weighted Cboe Magnificent 10 Index (ticker MGTN) on December 8, 2025, subject to regulatory review. The products would give traders a single cash settled instrument tied to 10 large cap U.S. technology and growth oriented stocks.
The MGTN futures and options are designed for cash settlement and clearing through OCC. Nearly 24 hour trading is planned for futures, and Global Trading Hours for options are targeted for early 2026, subject to regulatory approval.
Cboe Global Markets also plans to list Cboe Bitcoin Continuous Futures (PBT) and Cboe Ether Continuous Futures (PET) on Cboe Futures Exchange from December 15, 2025, subject to regulatory review. These contracts are intended to offer long term bitcoin and ether exposure through 10 year contracts with daily cash adjustments.
The new Continuous Futures on bitcoin and ether will be cash settled and cleared through Cboe Clear U.S. They will be available to trade 23 hours a day from Sunday through Friday, with educational courses planned by The Options Institute to explain product features and use cases.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate was nudged slightly higher from US$270.62 to US$273.00, implying a modest uplift in the modeled equity value.
The Discount Rate was reduced from 8.17% to 7.92%, indicating a slightly lower required return in the updated assumptions.
Revenue Growth was revised from a 15.99% decline to a 16.07% decline, reflecting a small additional softening in the revenue outlook used in the model.
The Profit Margin edged up from 44.89% to 45.18%, pointing to a minor improvement in expected profitability within the forecast period.
The Future P/E moved down from 29.0x to 28.3x, suggesting a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings in the updated work.

Expansion in derivatives, data, and global trading drives growth, aided by retail investor activity and increasing use of digital investment platforms.
Strategic international expansion and recurring high-margin data services enhance revenue stability, while technology investment and divestitures improve efficiency and margins.
Heavy reliance on key index partnerships, emerging fintech threats, and costly global expansion could compress margins and limit future growth if diversification efforts fall short.

Catalysts

About Cboe Global Markets

Through its subsidiaries, operates as an options exchange in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Cboe is experiencing broad-based growth across derivatives, data, and global spot markets, positioning it to benefit from ongoing increases in electronic trading volume and automation; these trends are likely to drive higher transaction-based revenue and support further top-line growth.
There is a structural tailwind from expanding retail investor participation-especially in options and through digital investment platforms-which is fueling record adoption of SPX 0DTE options and could materially increase both trading volumes and net revenues.
Strategic international expansion, particularly in Europe and the Asia Pacific region, is unlocking new sources of trading activity and recurring market data demand; this global diversification is likely to increase Cboe's addressable market and support persistent revenue growth.
Cboe's Data Vantage (market data, analytics, and index licensing) is demonstrating consistent double-digit revenue growth, supported by high-margin, recurring subscription sales, which enhances the predictability and profitability of earnings.
Focused resource allocation (such as divesting underperforming segments like Japanese equities) and ongoing investment in scalable technology infrastructure are driving operating leverage, improving efficiency, and supporting sustainable margin expansion.

Cboe Global Markets Earnings and Revenue Growth

Cboe Global Markets Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Cboe Global Markets's revenue will decrease by 16.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 19.8% today to 42.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $11.11) by about September 2028, up from $896.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 27.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.09% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.13%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Cboe Global Markets Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Cboe's significant reliance on its proprietary S&P index options franchise and the upcoming need to renew its long-term partnership with S&P creates concentration risk; any material change or non-renewal in that relationship could disrupt core revenue streams and impact future earnings.
Widespread adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization, and broader blockchain-based trading-areas acknowledged as "hot topics" but still in flux-could bypass traditional exchange infrastructure, ultimately weakening transaction volumes and compressing Cboe's fees and revenue growth over the long term.
Continued industry consolidation and intensifying global competition from both established exchanges and fintech disruptors threaten to erode market share, potentially driving fee compression and reducing Cboe's net margins.
High ongoing investments in technology, cybersecurity, and global expansion, while necessary for maintaining competitiveness, may increase costs faster than revenues can scale if new product or regional growth disappoints, thereby putting downward pressure on operating margins and long-term profitability.
Cboe's exit from lower-performing markets (such as the wind-down of its Japanese equities business) reflects a disciplined focus on core strengths, but also signals execution risk and limits the speed of international diversification, which could constrain future top-line and earnings growth if global opportunities are not fully realized.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $247.467 for Cboe Global Markets based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $265.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $216.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.6 billion, earnings will come to $1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.
Given the current share price of $235.41, the analyst price target of $247.47 is 4.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Cboe Global Markets?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CBOE: New Fee Dynamics And Earnings Guidance Will Shape Near-Term Outlook