Last Update 05 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 2.40%

MYGN: Sector Fundamentals And New Diagnostics Partnerships Will Support A More Constructive Outlook

Analysts have lowered their price target on Myriad Genetics to $7 from $9, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, while still expecting solid diagnostics sector results and 2026 outlooks.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Myriad Genetics focuses on how the updated $7 price target lines up with expectations for the broader diagnostics group, where analysts still see solid sector results and 2026 outlooks supported by what they describe as strong fundamentals.

Bullish Takeaways

Analysts citing strong fundamentals across diagnostics see Myriad as part of a group where demand and business models are viewed as relatively resilient. This can support longer term growth assumptions in their models.
Expectations for solid sector results and 2026 outlooks suggest that revenue growth and margins for diagnostics companies, including Myriad, are still being underwritten at levels that justify using a going concern valuation framework rather than distressed assumptions.
The maintained Hold stance, rather than a downgrade to a more negative rating, implies analysts see current execution and the balance of risk and reward as reasonably aligned with the new fair value estimate, rather than requiring a deeper valuation reset.
Keeping Myriad within a sector preview that is framed positively for 2026 indicates analysts still factor in the potential for operational improvements or product traction to support the revised P/E and cash flow expectations they are using.

Bearish Takeaways

The reduction of the price target from $9 to $7 signals increased caution around the inputs going into fair value work, including revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. This lowers the implied upside at current levels.
Adjustments to the discount rate suggest analysts are building in more risk around execution or forecasting, which can pressure valuation multiples and reduce tolerance for any shortfall versus expectations.
The Hold rating indicates that, even with broadly solid sector fundamentals, analysts see Myriad as fairly valued on their updated assumptions, rather than presenting a clear mispricing based on current information.
By revisiting targets across the diagnostics group, analysts highlight that stock selection within the sector matters, and that Myriad’s risk and reward profile is viewed as more balanced, with less room for error on growth and margin delivery under the refreshed framework.

What's in the News

Myriad Genetics outlined a commercialization roadmap for its Precise MRD ctDNA assay, planning a March 2026 launch with select community clinicians in breast cancer, followed by colorectal and renal cancers later in the year, and potential expansion into ovarian and endometrial cancers from 2027 onward, supported by data showing ultrasensitive ctDNA detection and recurrence prediction across multiple studies and forums, including The Lancet Oncology, SABCS 2025 and ASCO GI 2026. (Key Developments)
The company issued earnings guidance, projecting Fourth Quarter 2025 revenue of US$207 million to US$209 million, Full Year 2025 revenue of US$822 million to US$824 million, and Full Year 2026 revenue of US$860 million to US$880 million. (Key Developments)
Zydus Lifesciences signed an agreement with Myriad Genetics to introduce MyRisk Hereditary Cancer Test, MyChoice HRD Plus and Prolaris Prostate Cancer Prognostic Test to patients, clinicians and healthcare systems across India, broadening access to hereditary risk assessment and cancer prognostic tools in that market. (Key Developments)
Clairity, Myriad Genetics and MagView announced a collaboration that combines Myriad's MyRisk with RiskScore test with Clairity Breast and MagView's Luminary Risk software, giving U.S. breast centers an integrated view of genotype and phenotype data for breast cancer risk assessment within existing EHR workflows. (Key Developments)
Myriad expanded its MyRisk Hereditary Cancer Test to 63 genes aligned with NCCN and ASCO guidelines, covering more than 11 cancer types and aiming to provide clinically actionable insights across treatment planning, surveillance and family risk assessment, with ordering and reporting available through paper forms, the Myriad portal and EMR platforms such as EPIC and OncoEMR. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from $8.32 to $8.12 per share, reflecting a modest reset in the modeled equity value.
Discount Rate: increased slightly from 7.62% to 7.82%, indicating a small uptick in the required return used in the analysis.
Revenue Growth: adjusted from 4.42% to 5.03%, reflecting a higher assumed top line growth rate in the updated model.
Net Profit Margin: revised from 16.24% to 16.96%, with the updated assumptions pointing to somewhat stronger profitability over time.
Future P/E: reduced from 6.73x to 6.21x, indicating a lower multiple being applied to forward earnings in the valuation analysis.

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Key Takeaways

Expansion into new genomic testing areas, improved operations, and greater test adoption are driving long-term revenue growth and higher test volumes.
Strategic R&D investments, new partnerships, and disciplined cost management support margin expansion and sustained profitability.
Rising payer pushback, high debt costs, heavy reliance on mature products, investor skepticism, and execution risk threaten sustained growth and strategic progress.

Catalysts

About Myriad Genetics

A molecular diagnostic testing and precision medicine company, develops and provides molecular tests in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company is accelerating growth in its oncology business by expanding beyond hereditary cancer testing into comprehensive genomic profiling, immuno-oncology response monitoring, and MRD (minimal residual disease), leveraging its established reputation with healthcare providers. This product and market expansion is likely to increase the company's addressable market, supporting long-term revenue growth.
Increased adoption and reimbursement for genetic testing-including recent payer coverage wins for prenatal and mental health tests (GeneSight)-is driving stronger pricing and top-line revenue, as the secular trend of personalized medicine continues to expand and broader physician/patient awareness increases, improving both volume and average revenue per test.
Operational improvements, such as fixing the prenatal order management system and enhancing EMR integrations in hereditary cancer testing, have resolved recent volume headwinds, positioning Myriad for recovering and accelerating test volumes in the second half of the year and into 2026, which will positively impact revenue growth.
Strategic partnerships (e.g., with PATHOMIQ for AI-enhanced prostate cancer testing) and a focused investment in R&D for high-growth cancer applications will enable faster and more diverse test launches, driving future growth and supporting gross and net margin expansion as new, higher-value tests come to market.
Ongoing financial discipline, improved revenue cycle management, and a more favorable reimbursement landscape (including new state biomarker law-driven coverage) have enabled the company to expand gross margins, and target growing revenue faster than operating expenses, which should drive sustained profit growth and higher earnings in the medium-to-long term.

Myriad Genetics Earnings and Revenue Growth

Myriad Genetics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Myriad Genetics's revenue will grow by 5.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Myriad Genetics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Myriad Genetics's profit margin will increase from -47.4% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Myriad Genetics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $154.8 million (and earnings per share of $1.56) by about September 2028, up from $-395.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 5.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.21% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.02%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Myriad Genetics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing reimbursement risk highlighted by UnitedHealthcare's negative GeneSight coverage decision, which led to a 12% revenue decline in the Pharmacogenomics business and could signal broader payer pushback, directly threatening long-term revenue and ASP growth in core products.
High interest expense from the new $200 million OrbiMed loan (blended ~7% rate, initial tranche 11%) raises fixed costs and puts incremental pressure on net margins and earnings, especially if revenue growth underperforms projections.
Continued dependence on mature hereditary cancer and mental health franchises (e.g., MyRisk, GeneSight), with limited evidence so far of material impact from new pipeline products, exposes the company to slower growth and potential share loss if competitors bring differentiated tests to market, impacting long-term revenue and EBIT growth.
Significant impairment charge of $317 million against goodwill and intangibles, triggered by the prolonged decline in market capitalization, reflects lingering investor skepticism about Myriad's ability to convert strategy into sustained financial performance, which could hinder future earnings growth and capital raising flexibility.
Execution risk around new strategic priorities (e.g., pivoting to the Cancer Care Continuum, forging additional partnerships, and launching new oncology and prenatal products) remains high given lack of disclosed KPIs, past under-delivery versus potential, and increasing competition, all of which threaten Myriad's ability to achieve their targeted high single
to low double-digit revenue growth and profitability improvement.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $7.375 for Myriad Genetics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $3.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $963.8 million, earnings will come to $154.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 5.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
Given the current share price of $6.8, the analyst price target of $7.38 is 7.8% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Adding Cancer Test Capabilities And Mental Health Data Will Support Long-Term Progress