Last Update 13 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 7.69%

AKSO: Mixed Rating Shifts And New Contracts Will Test Dividend Commitment

Analysts have lifted their price target on Aker Solutions by NOK 2.78, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate and future P/E, even as recent research includes both a downgrade and a separate NOK 4 target increase.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Aker Solutions points in different directions, giving you a mix of optimistic and cautious signals to weigh.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are comfortable assigning a higher fair value, with one JPMorgan price target move of NOK 4 suggesting confidence that current earnings and P/E assumptions can justify a stronger valuation.
The higher targets indicate some analysts see room for execution to support future earnings, with the updated discount rate and P/E inputs pointing to a view that risk and growth expectations are reasonably balanced.
Supportive research implies that, at current levels, the risk or reward trade off could be attractive if Aker Solutions delivers on its project pipeline and maintains operational discipline.
By lifting formal targets, bullish analysts are signaling that they see the recent information flow as consistent with Aker Solutions meeting or improving on the assumptions embedded in their cash flow and earnings models.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have shifted to a more cautious stance, with at least one downgrade flagging concern that execution risks, contract timing or cost pressures could make existing earnings assumptions harder to achieve.
The downgrade highlights a view that the share price may already discount a fair amount of good news, leaving less room for error if project delivery or margins fall short of current expectations.
Some research indicates a preference for a higher risk premium, which feeds into a more conservative discount rate and can translate into lower valuation outcomes even without major changes to revenue forecasts.
The more cautious camp is effectively signaling that investors should pay close attention to near term project milestones and cash generation, as any setbacks could challenge the assumptions behind more optimistic P/E and target price frameworks.

What's in the News

The Board plans to propose a dividend of NOK 3.60 per share for the 2025 fiscal year, to be paid in 2026, representing about 60% of net income excluding special items, subject to approval at the AGM on April 16, 2026 (Key Developments).
Earnings guidance for 2026 points to expected revenues between NOK 45b and NOK 50b, providing an indication of the scale management is planning for (Key Developments).
Aker Solutions has secured multiple five year frame agreements with Equinor in Norway for maintenance and modifications services, with options for two further extension periods of three and two years, and the contracts are set to be booked as a major order intake in Q1 2026 in the Life Cycle segment (Key Developments).
The company has signed a six year frame agreement with ConocoPhillips Skandinavia for brownfield maintenance and modification services on the Eldfisk and Ekofisk fields offshore Norway, with options for up to two additional three year periods, and the contract is classified as substantial and scheduled to be booked as order intake in Q4 2025 in the Life Cycle segment (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: NOK 36.11 to NOK 38.89, indicating a modest uplift in the assessed equity value.
Discount Rate: 6.70% to 6.85%, a small increase in the required return that slightly tightens the valuation framework.
Revenue Growth: from a 17.41% decline to a 16.07% decline, reflecting a somewhat less steep expected contraction in revenues.
Net Profit Margin: from 4.36% to 3.84%, a reduction in expected profitability on each NOK of revenue.
Future P/E: from 14.27x to 16.43x, pointing to a higher multiple being applied to expected earnings.

High order intake in offshore wind and CCS projects could drive future revenue growth and improve project margins.
Strategic contract shifts and cost-saving synergies may enhance net margins and EBITDA, bolstering earnings growth.
Operational challenges and geopolitical risks in renewables projects might affect margins and earnings, whereas increased oil and gas tenders hint at a strategic focus shift.

Catalysts

About Aker Solutions

Provides solutions, products, systems, and services to the oil and gas industry in Norway, the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Angola, Brunei, Canada, India, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Aker Solutions is experiencing high order intake driven by new contracts, particularly in offshore wind and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. This suggests potential future revenue growth as these projects are executed.
The company’s strategic shift from traditional lump-sum contracts to models with balanced risk-reward profiles and joint incentives is expected to improve project margins. This may result in better net margins as risks and upsides are more closely tied to Aker’s performance.
Significant progress on projects such as Johan Castberg FPSO and Aker BP initiatives highlights Aker Solutions’ capability to deliver complex projects. Continued success and timely execution of these projects can drive future earnings growth and improve the bottom line.
Ongoing development of synergies in its OneSubsea operations, alongside an ambition to save $100 million annually, points to cost reductions that could increase EBITDA margins over time.
With a robust tender pipeline of NOK 85 billion, primarily in Europe, and anticipated growth in the subsea and lifecycle services segments, Aker Solutions is well-positioned to expand its revenue base in the coming years.

Aker Solutions Earnings and Revenue Growth

Aker Solutions Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Aker Solutions's revenue will decrease by 15.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.8% today to 4.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach NOK 1.6 billion (and earnings per share of NOK 3.41) by about September 2028, down from NOK 2.2 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting NOK2.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting NOK1.0 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 6.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Energy Services industry at 6.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.09% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.14%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Aker Solutions Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The legacy renewables projects are described as both operationally and commercially challenging, which could continue to negatively impact net margins until 2025.
Challenges in resolving commercial issues with clients and subcontractors in legacy renewables projects might prolong, creating uncertainties or additional costs, affecting earnings.
The geopolitical situation, particularly concerning tariffs and trade restrictions, is being closely monitored and could potentially disrupt the supply chain, impacting future revenue and operational costs.
The segment of oil and gas in the tender pipeline is increasing, suggesting a potential shift in focus that could impact long-term revenue stability if renewables don't perform as expected.
Potential delays in client investment decisions due to geopolitical factors could affect the timing and realization of new orders, thereby impacting future revenue streams.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of NOK33.875 for Aker Solutions based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NOK44.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NOK29.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be NOK35.0 billion, earnings will come to NOK1.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
Given the current share price of NOK30.4, the analyst price target of NOK33.88 is 10.3% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Offshore Wind And Carbon Capture Projects Will Yield Mixed Outcomes