UK Policies And US Incentives Will Strengthen Renewables Despite Risks

Key Takeaways

• Supportive policy changes and rising electrification trends expand RWE's market opportunities, improve earnings quality, and drive revenue growth.
  
• Diversified renewables pipeline and capital recycling strategies strengthen financial stability, enhance margins, and underpin long-term profit expansion.
  
• RWE faces earnings volatility and cash flow pressure from weak wind conditions, supply chain disruptions, policy dependency, and challenges securing project finance for renewables.

Catalysts

Generates and supplies electricity from renewable and conventional sources in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.

• Major policy tailwinds in core markets-the U.K. retention of a single price zone, extension of CfD periods to 20 years, higher auction price caps, and the new U.S. "Big Beautiful Bill" with tax incentives-are expected to provide greater revenue visibility and de-risk project cash flows, likely supporting higher recurring revenues and improved earnings quality over time.
  
• Structural growth in power demand from electrification of industry, transport, and heating, especially in Germany and the U.S., is expected to expand RWE's addressable market and directly drive top-line revenue growth as new projects come online.
  
• RWE's multi-gigawatt pipeline of diversified wind, solar, and battery projects under construction (11 GW with over 3 GW ready for commercial operation in the near term) is set to support double-digit annual renewables capacity growth, boosting recurring revenues and EBITDA.
  
• Continued capital recycling through partial sell-downs and project co-investments (e.g., with TotalEnergies and Norwest) enhances RWE's balance sheet strength and frees up capital for new developments, positively impacting free cash flow and reducing financial risk.
  
• Ongoing improvements in regulatory frameworks and increased government support for grid infrastructure and flexible generation (e.g., large-scale battery and gas plants in Germany) underpin RWE's ability to capitalize on high-margin, reliable energy services, sustaining long-term net margin expansion and earnings growth.

RWE Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming RWE's revenue will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 10.8% today to 8.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €2.1 billion (and earnings per share of €2.99) by about August 2028, down from €2.5 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €2.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €1.8 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Renewable Energy industry at 13.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.27% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

RWE Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Persistently weak wind conditions in Europe and lower hedge prices have already caused a 23% drop in offshore wind generation volume for RWE in H1 2025, indicating that variability in renewable resource availability could continue to create significant earnings volatility and negatively impact recurring revenue and net margins.
  
• Tightness in the global supply chain for renewables-highlighted by the need for pre-agreed pricing and reservation agreements for turbines and engines-raises the risk of higher capex, delivery delays, and cost inflation, which could erode project profitability and compress returns on new projects, thereby pressuring long-term earnings.
  
• RWE's disciplined approach to only committing capital once farm-downs and project finance are secured in U.K. offshore projects implies a potential risk: if demand for equity partners dries up or if buyer appetite in the "buyer's market" remains weak, RWE may have to shoulder more investments on its balance sheet, which could elevate debt, increase financing costs, and constrain future dividend growth or buybacks.
  
• The transition away from legacy phaseout (coal/nuclear) technologies is forecasted to be cash flow negative over the next 2-3 years as preparation costs rise, potentially dragging on group operating cash flow and weighing on net profit until cash flow improves closer to 2030.
  
• Greater dependency on government policy frameworks (e.g., auctions, tax credits in the U.S. and Germany, and price support mechanisms) exposes RWE to regulatory and political risk-if auction volumes or subsidy terms disappoint, or if permitting processes tighten further, this could limit project pipelines and reduce visibility for revenue and earnings growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €42.939 for RWE based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €49.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €36.4.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €25.7 billion, earnings will come to €2.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of €35.37, the analyst price target of €42.94 is 17.6% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.