What's in the News

RWE completed construction of its first project in Louisiana, the 100 MW Lafitte Solar plant, which is expected to be fully online by year end and supported by a long term PPA with Meta that includes associated environmental benefits and RECs (Key Developments).

The Lafitte Solar project is projected to generate about €32 million in regional tax revenue over its lifetime and supported more than 150 full time construction jobs at peak, boosting local services and businesses in Ouachita Parish (Key Developments).

RWE and construction partner McCarthy are funding community initiatives around Lafitte Solar, including school donations, a new playground at Tanglewood Community Park, and one of the largest holiday food donations received by the Food Bank of Northeast Louisiana (Key Developments).

The Lafitte Solar site incorporates agrivoltaics, using a flock of over 600 sheep to manage vegetation and promote biodiversity, illustrating how renewable energy can coexist with agriculture and support local farmers (Key Developments).

ITM Power signed a capacity reservation agreement with RWE for 150 MW of NEPTUNE V green hydrogen units, reinforcing RWE's role in large scale hydrogen projects following its 4 MW pilot plant and 200 MW GetH2 Nukleus electrolyser order in Lingen, Germany (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Raised slightly from approximately €47.16 to about €48.18 per share, reflecting a modest uplift in the underlying valuation.

Discount Rate: Reduced marginally from roughly 6.48% to 6.48%, implying a slightly lower perceived risk profile in the cash flow discounting.

Revenue Growth: Trimmed very slightly from about 6.72% to around 6.71% per year, signaling a near-unchanged top line growth outlook.

Net Profit Margin: Increased modestly from roughly 7.78% to about 7.78%, indicating a small improvement in expected profitability.

Future P/E: Edged up from around 18.9x to about 19.3x, pointing to a slightly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Key Takeaways

Supportive policy changes and rising electrification trends expand RWE's market opportunities, improve earnings quality, and drive revenue growth.
Diversified renewables pipeline and capital recycling strategies strengthen financial stability, enhance margins, and underpin long-term profit expansion.
RWE faces earnings volatility and cash flow pressure from weak wind conditions, supply chain disruptions, policy dependency, and challenges securing project finance for renewables.

Catalysts

About RWE

Generates and supplies electricity from renewable and conventional sources in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Major policy tailwinds in core markets-the U.K. retention of a single price zone, extension of CfD periods to 20 years, higher auction price caps, and the new U.S. "Big Beautiful Bill" with tax incentives-are expected to provide greater revenue visibility and de-risk project cash flows, likely supporting higher recurring revenues and improved earnings quality over time.
Structural growth in power demand from electrification of industry, transport, and heating, especially in Germany and the U.S., is expected to expand RWE's addressable market and directly drive top-line revenue growth as new projects come online.
RWE's multi-gigawatt pipeline of diversified wind, solar, and battery projects under construction (11 GW with over 3 GW ready for commercial operation in the near term) is set to support double-digit annual renewables capacity growth, boosting recurring revenues and EBITDA.
Continued capital recycling through partial sell-downs and project co-investments (e.g., with TotalEnergies and Norwest) enhances RWE's balance sheet strength and frees up capital for new developments, positively impacting free cash flow and reducing financial risk.
Ongoing improvements in regulatory frameworks and increased government support for grid infrastructure and flexible generation (e.g., large-scale battery and gas plants in Germany) underpin RWE's ability to capitalize on high-margin, reliable energy services, sustaining long-term net margin expansion and earnings growth.

RWE Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming RWE's revenue will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 10.8% today to 8.2% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €2.1 billion (and earnings per share of €3.0) by about September 2028, down from €2.5 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €2.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €1.8 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 9.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Renewable Energy industry at 13.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.27% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

RWE Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistently weak wind conditions in Europe and lower hedge prices have already caused a 23% drop in offshore wind generation volume for RWE in H1 2025, indicating that variability in renewable resource availability could continue to create significant earnings volatility and negatively impact recurring revenue and net margins.
Tightness in the global supply chain for renewables-highlighted by the need for pre-agreed pricing and reservation agreements for turbines and engines-raises the risk of higher capex, delivery delays, and cost inflation, which could erode project profitability and compress returns on new projects, thereby pressuring long-term earnings.
RWE's disciplined approach to only committing capital once farm-downs and project finance are secured in U.K. offshore projects implies a potential risk: if demand for equity partners dries up or if buyer appetite in the "buyer's market" remains weak, RWE may have to shoulder more investments on its balance sheet, which could elevate debt, increase financing costs, and constrain future dividend growth or buybacks.
The transition away from legacy phaseout (coal/nuclear) technologies is forecasted to be cash flow negative over the next 2-3 years as preparation costs rise, potentially dragging on group operating cash flow and weighing on net profit until cash flow improves closer to 2030.
Greater dependency on government policy frameworks (e.g., auctions, tax credits in the U.S. and Germany, and price support mechanisms) exposes RWE to regulatory and political risk-if auction volumes or subsidy terms disappoint, or if permitting processes tighten further, this could limit project pipelines and reduce visibility for revenue and earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €42.856 for RWE based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €49.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €36.4.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €25.7 billion, earnings will come to €2.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
Given the current share price of €33.98, the analyst price target of €42.86 is 20.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Commentary Highlights Modest Valuation Increase for RWE Amid Strategic Shifts and Renewables Focus

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