Last Update04 Oct 25Fair value Increased 3.07%
AutoZone's analyst price target increased from approximately $4,420 to $4,556 per share, as analysts cite accelerating revenue growth and market share gains, despite recent margin pressures.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reveals a spectrum of views on AutoZone, reflecting both confidence in long-term opportunities and ongoing caution regarding near-term headwinds. Analysts broadly recognize the company's ability to capture market share and execute on key initiatives, while noting valuation adjustments stemming from mixed quarterly results and ongoing margin pressures.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight sustained market share gains, particularly in both the DIY and commercial segments. This has been driven by an accelerated store expansion strategy and new initiatives.
- Several research notes point to strong same-store sales momentum and positive pricing trends, with the company effectively passing through price increases with little impact on customer demand.
- There is confidence that margin pressures, such as those from LIFO charges and SG&A investments, are temporary. AutoZone is viewed as poised to return to robust double-digit EPS growth in the coming fiscal year.
- Valuation targets have generally trended higher. The risk/reward profile is still viewed as favorable by bullish analysts due to ongoing investment returns and compounding growth potential.
- Bearish analysts are cautious about near-term profitability, citing margin headwinds from non-cash LIFO charges and higher SG&A expenses linked to store expansion.
- Mixed quarterly results, with earnings misses despite in-line or better sales, have prompted some to lower price targets and reduce earnings estimates for the short term.
- There is ongoing concern that margin pressures could persist in the coming quarters, especially if SG&A leverage remains a challenge and buyback activity slows.
- Potential upside depends on foreign exchange trends and the pace of comparable sales growth. These factors bear watching amid a dynamic retail environment.
What's in the News
- AutoZone completed the repurchase of 117,000 shares between May 11, 2025 and August 31, 2025. This amounted to $446.2 million. (Key Developments)
- The company has now bought back a total of 44,806,031 shares for $31.6 billion under its buyback program, which began in December 2008. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased from $4,420 to $4,556 per share. This reflects growing optimism in valuation.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.58% to 8.64%, indicating a modestly higher expected return requirement from analysts.
- Revenue Growth expectations have increased from 6.22% to 7.57%. This shows greater anticipated top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin has declined slightly from 13.79% to 13.53%, suggesting some continued cost or margin pressures.
- Future P/E has fallen from 29.0x to 27.5x. This implies a modest decrease in expected valuation multiples.
Key Takeaways
- Expansion of Mega-Hub locations and international stores is expected to drive revenue growth and improve sales margins by enhancing inventory availability.
- Investments in advanced technology for distribution centers aim to improve supply chain efficiencies and net margins, while share buybacks enhance earnings per share.
- The company faces margin pressures from foreign exchange headwinds, inflation, tariffs, and rising expenses, impacting revenue and earnings unless offset by strong sales growth.
Catalysts
About AutoZone- AutoZone, Inc. retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil.
- AutoZone's focus on improving availability and speed of delivery in the Domestic Commercial business is expected to drive further sales growth, contributing significantly to revenue growth.
- The expansion of Mega-Hub locations, with an aim to open at least 19 more in the next two quarters, will enhance inventory availability and support both retail and Commercial growth, potentially improving sales and operating margins.
- International expansion, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, with a target of opening 100 new international stores in the fiscal year, is poised to increase revenue and profitability by tapping into underpenetrated markets.
- Investments in new distribution centers featuring advanced technology and automation in California and Virginia are expected to create supply chain efficiencies, which should help to improve net margins.
- AutoZone's consistent share buyback program, supported by strong free cash flow generation, is set to continue enhancing earnings per share (EPS) over time.
AutoZone Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming AutoZone's revenue will grow by 6.0% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts are assuming AutoZone's profit margins will remain the same at 13.6% over the next 3 years.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.1 billion (and earnings per share of $198.33) by about September 2028, up from $2.6 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 28.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 18.7x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.04% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
AutoZone Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The impact of foreign exchange rates resulted in significant headwinds, reducing sales by $91 million and EBIT by $30 million, which could continue to negatively impact reported revenue and earnings.
- The variations in performance across different regions, particularly the Northeast and Rust Belt, due to severe weather conditions, show volatility in sales, which might affect consistent revenue streams.
- Persistent inflationary pressures expected to increase ticket prices by approximately 3% and result in lower transaction counts, indicating consumer caution about spending, potentially impacting overall revenue.
- 20% tariffs on SKUs from China could pose additional cost pressures; historically, maintaining margin post-tariffs has been challenging, leading to potential impacts on net margins if not offset efficiently.
- Continued investment in aggressive expansion and technology are leading to higher SG&A expenses, causing margin pressures and limiting earnings growth unless sales growth compensates for these costs.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $4202.409 for AutoZone based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $4900.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $2900.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $22.5 billion, earnings will come to $3.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
- Given the current share price of $4291.12, the analyst price target of $4202.41 is 2.1% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.