Last Update 16 Dec 25

ELUT: Future Listing Compliance Efforts Will Support Reconstructive Portfolio Expansion

Narrative Update on Elutia

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Elutia upward to reflect a slightly more constructive long term earnings and valuation outlook, nudging the fair value estimate higher by approximately $0.00 per share as updated model inputs had only a de minimis impact on the overall target.

What's in the News

Elutia received a notice from Nasdaq that its Class A common stock has traded below the $1.00 per share minimum bid price for 30 consecutive business days, triggering a formal deficiency notification and potential delisting process (Nasdaq listing notice).
The company has 180 calendar days, until May 6, 2026, to regain compliance by achieving a closing bid price of at least $1.00 per share for a minimum of ten consecutive business days, subject to possible Nasdaq staff discretion on the evaluation period (Nasdaq listing rules).
If Elutia fails to regain compliance in the initial period, it may qualify for an additional 180 day extension if it meets other initial listing standards and indicates its intent to cure the deficiency, including the potential use of a reverse stock split (Nasdaq listing rules).
If Elutia ultimately is unable to satisfy the minimum bid price or other applicable listing requirements, its common stock would be subject to delisting from The Nasdaq Capital Market, increasing uncertainty for existing shareholders (Nasdaq listing notice).
Management has stated it intends to continue monitoring the stock price and evaluating available options to maintain the company's Nasdaq listing, though there is no assurance compliance will be regained (company disclosure).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate unchanged at $3.50 per share, reflecting no material revision to the core valuation outlook.
Discount Rate risen slightly to approximately 8.84 percent, indicating a marginally higher assumed risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth improved very slightly to around negative 8.78 percent, a change that is immaterial to the broader model conclusions.
Net Profit Margin increased fractionally to roughly 16.03 percent, leaving long term profitability expectations effectively stable.
Future P/E edged up marginally to about 83.57 times, signaling a de minimis shift in the implied earnings multiple used in the valuation.

Demographic trends and successful product adoption position the company for sustained growth, especially in advanced wound healing and regenerative implants.
Margin improvements and reduced legal risks, combined with new market launches, support profitability and open further business development opportunities.
Heavy dependence on a single product, regulatory risks, pricing pressures, ongoing litigation, and liquidity concerns could collectively inhibit growth and strain future financial performance.

Catalysts

About Elutia

A commercial-stage company, develops and commercializes drug-eluting biologics products for neurostimulation and breast reconstruction in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong demographic tailwinds, including a rapidly aging population and increased prevalence of chronic conditions like diabetes and obesity, are expected to drive sustained demand for advanced wound healing and regenerative implants-providing a multi-year runway for top-line growth.
Successful commercialization and rapid adoption of EluPro, with sequential quarterly growth of 49% and 161 hospital systems already on board, demonstrates the company's ability to penetrate the market through efficient VAC approvals and GPO contracts-pointing to accelerating revenue growth and improved earnings leverage as scale builds.
Near-term launch potential of NXT-41 for breast reconstruction addresses a large, underserved market with high unmet medical need, and leverages Elutia's established innovation platform-setting the stage for significant future revenue expansion and potential margin uplift as product mix shifts.
Ongoing gross margin improvement, driven by operational efficiencies, higher margin cardiovascular product recovery, and product scaling, is already translating to a 4+ percentage point year-over-year increase in adjusted gross margin-supporting the pathway to operating profitability and stronger net margins.
Resolution of legacy litigation overhang and advancement of strategic partnership opportunities are set to remove barriers to business development, improve net earnings by reducing legal expenses, and possibly unlock additional value via collaborations or accretive transactions.

Elutia Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Elutia's revenue will grow by 63.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Elutia will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Elutia's profit margin will increase from -90.0% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Elutia's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $16.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.33) by about September 2028, up from $-21.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.12%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Elutia Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Elutia remains highly dependent on the continued success and adoption of EluPro; should hospital VAC approvals slow or a superior competing product emerge (especially as larger medtech firms enter this segment), revenue growth and gross margins could stall or reverse due to overreliance on one commercial engine.
The company's forward guidance is built on rapid scaling and aggressive expansion plans, especially into the breast reconstruction market with NXT-41X-however, elongated regulatory timelines, more rigorous FDA review of combination biologic/drug devices, or unexpected clinical challenges could delay market entry and inhibit future revenue realization.
Price sensitivities and tightening reimbursement environments in the healthcare sector could limit hospitals' willingness or ability to adopt premium-priced biologic implants (despite clinical benefit), capping Elutia's volume growth and compressing revenue, particularly in cost-constrained health systems.
Persisting litigation overhang-even as most legacy lawsuits have been settled-may continue to consume financial and management resources and could deter potential strategic partners or acquirers, limiting inorganic growth options and weighing on net earnings.
Modest cash reserves ($8.5 million at quarter's end) combined with ongoing development and commercialization expenses may pressure liquidity; absent a significant increase in positive cash flow or successful near-term strategic transactions, the company may be forced to raise capital under unfavorable terms, diluting future earnings or constraining R&D investment.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $6.5 for Elutia based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $8.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $104.0 million, earnings will come to $16.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
Given the current share price of $1.99, the analyst price target of $6.5 is 69.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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