Last Update 16 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 0.99%

SNDX: Expanded Leukemia Reach And Refined Risk Profile Will Support Long-Term Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target on Syndax Pharmaceuticals higher by $1, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as key drivers behind the change.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts lifting their fair value assumptions on Syndax Pharmaceuticals are generally reacting to updated views on growth, profitability, and risk, which together support the modest US$1 move in the price target.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the higher price target as better alignment with their revised revenue and margin framework, which feeds directly into higher projected cash flows in their models.
Updated assumptions on the future P/E multiple suggest some are more comfortable assigning a richer earnings multiple, reflecting their confidence in Syndax Pharmaceuticals' ability to convert its pipeline and operations into earnings over time.
The fine tuning of the discount rate points to a view that the risk profile is better understood, which can justify a slightly higher valuation even with conservative growth and profitability inputs.
Analysts leaning positive tend to frame the US$1 increase as a measured adjustment, signaling that their thesis is intact while still leaving room for execution milestones to drive further model changes.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts may see the modest size of the price target move as a sign that upside is more limited at current levels, with valuation already reflecting a fair share of expected revenue and margin progress.
There is potential concern that the uplift relies on assumptions around future P/E and profitability that still require consistent execution, leaving little buffer if timelines slip or costs run higher than planned.
Some cautious views focus on the sensitivity of valuation to the discount rate and terminal assumptions, which can materially affect fair value estimates for a company like Syndax Pharmaceuticals.
For more conservative models, the updated target underlines that while the story may be constructive, it also carries typical biotech risks around clinical, regulatory, and commercialization execution that could pressure the current valuation if expectations are not met.

What’s in the News

Syndax Pharmaceuticals and the World Orphan Drug Alliance announced a collaboration to expand access to Revuforj (revumenib) through a Managed Access Program for eligible patients outside the U.S., in markets where local regulations and funding allow use of novel medicines (Key Developments).
Revuforj, an oral first in class menin inhibitor, is FDA approved in the U.S. for relapsed or refractory acute leukemia with a KMT2A gene translocation in adult and pediatric patients one year and older, and for relapsed or refractory AML with a susceptible NPM1 mutation in adult and pediatric patients one year and older who have no satisfactory alternative treatment options (Key Developments).
Syndax highlighted Revuforj data at the 67th American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting, including safety details. Differentiation syndrome occurred in 25% of 241 patients at the recommended dose, and QTc interval prolongation was reported in 36% of patients in clinical trials (Key Developments).
The company also emphasized its broader pipeline, including Revuforj and Niktimvo (axatilimab csfr), an FDA approved monoclonal antibody targeting the CSF 1 receptor, with several clinical trials underway across the treatment continuum (Key Developments).
On December 18, 2025, the Board approved bylaw amendments stating that, from that date, new shares of capital stock are issued only in uncertificated form, while existing share certificates remain valid until surrendered to the company (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The fair value estimate is essentially unchanged, moving slightly from $39.31 to $38.92.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from 7.33% to 7.35%, suggesting a marginally higher required return in the models.
Revenue Growth: Revenue growth assumptions are broadly stable, edging from 84.22% to 84.21%.
Net Profit Margin: Net profit margin expectations have eased modestly from 14.42% to 14.08%.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has risen slightly from 43.11x to 43.75x, indicating a small change in how much earnings are being capitalized in the models.

Expanding drug adoption, earlier-line usage, and new regulatory approvals are set to drive broader market access and boost long-term revenue growth.
Strong late-stage pipeline, fixed costs, and leading positions in precision oncology create operating leverage and sustained momentum for multi-year profitability.
The company's heavy reliance on two late-stage drugs and ambitious label expansions amplifies business risks from regulatory, competitive, and market adoption uncertainties.

Catalysts

About Syndax Pharmaceuticals

A commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops therapies for the treatment of cancer.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption of Revuforj and Niktimvo, amid an aging global population and rising cancer incidence, significantly expands Syndax's addressable market and supports sustained long-term revenue growth.
Ongoing shift to earlier-line use of Revuforj and increasing post-transplant maintenance therapy materially lengthen average treatment duration and patient retention-both acting as strong multipliers for net revenue and future earnings.
Imminent regulatory milestones-including the anticipated sNDA approval and guideline inclusion for Revuforj in relapsed/refractory mutant NPM1 AML-would substantially expand approved patient populations and catalyze a step-function increase in revenues.
Fixed operating expense base, together with expanding product sales and cash flow contributions from both franchises, is positioned to drive significant operating leverage, boosting net margins and accelerating the pathway to profitability.
Late-stage pipeline advancements (including frontline trials, lifecycle management, and expansion into new indications like IPF for Niktimvo), coupled with strong clinical data and market-leading positions in precision oncology, provide robust long-term growth avenues aligned with surging demand for innovative, targeted therapies-supporting sustained multi-year earnings momentum.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Earnings and Revenue Growth

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Syndax Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 97.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -429.8% today to 7.2% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $43.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.18) by about September 2028, up from $-335.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $53.3 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-61.7 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 90.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.92% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.03%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on the continued commercial success and label expansion of only two late-stage assets (Revuforj and Niktimvo) increases business risk; any clinical, regulatory, or competitive setback for these drugs would have a disproportionate negative impact on future revenue growth and earnings.
Despite strong early uptake, high future revenue and margin projections depend on further label expansions (such as anticipated NPM1 approval for Revuforj and expansion of Niktimvo into additional indications); unexpected delays, negative trial data, or increased FDA scrutiny could lengthen timelines or limit addressable populations, negatively impacting both revenue growth and net margins.
Intensifying competition from larger, better-resourced oncology and rare disease pharmaceutical companies may erode Syndax's market share, put downward pressure on pricing, and compress both top-line revenue and net margins over the long term.
Sustained high R&D and SG&A expenses, combined with uncertainty around the pace and robustness of long-term commercial adoption-especially if market penetration or treatment duration forecasts are overly optimistic-could result in persistent net losses and delayed profitability, directly impacting earnings.
Long-term healthcare payer cost pressures, reimbursement risk, and increasing global cost-consciousness in oncology and rare disease markets may restrict pricing power, limit the achievable market opportunity for Syndax's therapies, and compress peak revenues and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $36.545 for Syndax Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $56.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $19.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $603.4 million, earnings will come to $43.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 90.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
Given the current share price of $16.13, the analyst price target of $36.55 is 55.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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