Last Update 11 Dec 25

ABCB: Core Earnings Strength And Buybacks Will Support Sentiment Amid Sector Uncertainty

Analysts have raised their price target on Ameris Bancorp by $4 to $84, citing in-line Q3 results with strong core earnings, solid loan growth, and impressive profitability that they expect investors to continue to reward.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts interpret the higher price target as a signal that Ameris Bancorp's current valuation still leaves room for upside, backed by consistent execution and resilient fundamentals.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to strong core earnings that are tracking in line with expectations. This reinforces confidence that the bank can continue to deliver predictable earnings power to support the higher target.
Solid loan growth is viewed as evidence of healthy underlying demand and disciplined market share gains. This could sustain top line expansion and justify a premium valuation versus regional peers.
Impressive profitability metrics, including robust margins and returns, are seen as key drivers of long term value creation. This supports the case that the stock deserves to trade at or above historical multiples.
In a market environment where deal oriented banks face skepticism, Ameris Bancorp's clean earnings profile and organic growth focus are considered positives that may help the shares command a relative valuation advantage.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that the recent price target increase already bakes in a favorable operating backdrop. This may leave limited room for missteps in execution or credit quality before the valuation comes under pressure.
There is concern that sustained loan growth in a more uncertain macro environment could bring higher risk weighted assets and potentially greater credit costs over time, which might weigh on future profitability.
Some remain wary that if sector sentiment turns more negative on regional banks broadly, even strong individual performance at Ameris Bancorp may not fully shield the stock from multiple compression.
Questions persist around the durability of current profitability levels if funding costs rise or competitive pressures intensify. This could narrow spreads and temper the earnings trajectory that underpins the new target.

What's in the News

Ameris Bancorp expanded its equity repurchase authorization to $200 million and extended the buyback program through October 31, 2026, which signals a continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders (Key Developments).
From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 125,900 shares for $8.48 million. This brings total buybacks under the September 19, 2019 authorization to 2,144,189 shares, or 3.1% of shares outstanding, for $99.83 million (Key Developments).
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, Ameris Bancorp reported net charge offs of $7.45 million, down from $8.07 million in the prior year period, indicating modest improvement in credit costs (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $82.14 per share, indicating no material shift in long term intrinsic value assumptions.
Discount Rate: Edged down slightly from 6.956 percent to 6.956 percent, effectively flat and signaling a stable risk and return profile in the valuation model.
Revenue Growth: Held essentially steady at about 8.05 percent, reflecting consistent expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Remained effectively unchanged at roughly 32.76 percent, suggesting stable long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Stayed flat at about 13.98x, implying no notable reassessment of the market multiple applied to future earnings.

Economic and population growth in core Southeastern markets, alongside digital banking enhancements, are driving sustained deposit and loan growth, fostering market share expansion.
Strong asset quality and conservative loan practices are stabilizing earnings, while industry disruption and consolidation open avenues for organic and acquisition-driven growth.
Ameris Bancorp's strategic focus on aggressive growth in cyclical, concentrated markets exposes it to margin compression, revenue volatility, and heightened execution and regional economic risks.

Catalysts

About Ameris Bancorp

Operates as the bank holding company for Ameris Bank that provides range of banking services to retail and commercial customers.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company is benefitting from strong population migration and economic growth in its core Southeastern markets, providing a tailwind for ongoing loan and deposit growth, which is expected to drive higher revenue and expand market share.
Accelerating digital banking enhancements and emphasis on treasury management are enabling Ameris to acquire and retain more granular, low-cost, noninterest-bearing deposits, supporting net interest margin sustainability and efficiency improvements.
Increased productivity and expansion of relationship bankers, combined with strategic positioning in growth areas, are allowing Ameris to capture greater commercial and SMB lending opportunities, fueling long-term organic revenue and earnings growth.
Robust asset quality and conservative loan portfolio management are providing stability in credit costs, supporting consistent earnings and defending against earnings volatility, which should bolster long-term tangible book value growth.
Industry disruption and bank consolidation in the Southeast create further potential for Ameris to capitalize on growth opportunities (both organic and selective M&A), leveraging strong capital and scale to enhance future earnings and efficiency ratios.

Ameris Bancorp Earnings and Revenue Growth

Ameris Bancorp Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Ameris Bancorp's revenue will grow by 8.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 35.1% today to 30.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $438.2 million (and earnings per share of $6.37) by about September 2028, up from $391.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.71% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ameris Bancorp Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ameris Bancorp is facing heightened competition for both loans and deposits, with increasing pressure to pay up for deposit growth and more aggressive competitor behavior, which may compress net interest margins and affect overall earnings.
The company's strong loan growth is currently centered in cyclical sectors like mortgage warehouse lending, which are sensitive to interest rate and housing market cycles; a weakening or slowing in these cycles or an unexpected downturn could directly impact revenue stability and future loan growth.
Sustained low or volatile interest rate environments and an industry-wide normalization of margins are likely to exert downward pressure on Ameris's net interest margin (NIM) over time, challenging profitability and limiting net margin expansion as projected by management.
Overreliance on growth in key Southeastern markets, combined with limited geographic diversification, increases Ameris Bancorp's vulnerability to regional economic downturns or demographic shifts, potentially leading to lower loan and deposit growth and affecting long-term revenue prospects.
The company's aggressive organic expansion strategy, including rapid hiring of new revenue generators and potential M&A activity, brings execution and integration risk that could lead to increased operating costs or cultural misalignments, adversely impacting efficiency ratios and net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $77.667 for Ameris Bancorp based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.4 billion, earnings will come to $438.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $73.38, the analyst price target of $77.67 is 5.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Ameris Bancorp?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Future Earnings Will Rely On Maintaining Strong Profit Margins And Loan Quality