Last Update 08 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 0.71%

SY1: Recent Upgrade And Buyback Will Support Future Share Repricing

Analysts have nudged their price target on Symrise slightly lower to about €93.82 from roughly €94.49, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following recent research commentary.

Analyst Commentary

Goldman Sachs recently upgraded Symrise, and that shift helps explain why the consensus price target is only marginally lower despite updated assumptions around revenue, margins, and future P/E levels.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the upgrade from Goldman Sachs as a signal that execution on revenue and margin plans is tracking closely enough to support current valuation assumptions.
They see the current P/E expectations as reasonable given the company’s ability, in their view, to convert its existing business mix into steady earnings, even after adjusting their models.
The small change in the price target, from about €94.49 to roughly €93.82, is interpreted as a fine tuning of forecasts rather than a sign of a major shift in confidence.
Supporters argue that, with updated research now reflected in the target, the risk of major estimate resets could be lower in the near term. They see this as helpful for valuation stability.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on the fact that the target move is still down, which they see as a reminder that revenue growth and margin assumptions may have limited room for error.
They question whether current P/E expectations leave enough cushion if execution slips or if cost pressures keep profitability from matching existing forecasts.
The modest trim to the target, even alongside an upgrade from a major bank, is seen as a sign that upside could be capped if the company only meets, rather than exceeds, current assumptions.
Some cautious voices highlight that, with expectations already embedded into the new price target, any disappointment on revenue or margins could put pressure on the stock’s valuation.

What's in the News

Symrise AG plans to pay an annual dividend of €1.25 per share, with payment on May 11, 2026, ex date on May 7, 2026, and record date on May 8, 2026 (company announcement).
The company has started a share repurchase program of €400 million, with buybacks scheduled from February 1 to October 31, 2026, under an authorization that allows repurchases of up to 13,977,205 shares, or 10% of issued share capital, valid until May 19, 2030 (company announcement).
Repurchased shares may be redeemed or used for purposes such as mergers, acquisitions, convertible or warrant obligations, or share based and employee stock option plans, as long as treasury holdings do not exceed 10% of issued share capital (company announcement).
Symrise is in advanced talks to sell its terpenes business through a structured bidding process and is applying IFRS 5, with a non cash impairment charge of about €145 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, which affects EBIT (company announcement).
The company expects a non cash impairment of €150 million on its investment in Swedencare AB in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is projected to cause a material deviation from previously expected 2025 results and has a negative impact on EBITDA (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value was revised slightly lower from about €94.49 to roughly €93.82 per share, reflecting small tweaks to the model rather than a wholesale reset.
The Discount Rate was adjusted marginally from 5.89% to about 5.83%, a small change that gently affects the present value of projected cash flows.
Revenue Growth is now set at about 4.22% instead of 3.06%, indicating higher expectations for top line expansion under the updated assumptions.
The Net Profit Margin was nudged up from roughly 11.41% to about 11.61%, implying a modestly more optimistic view on profitability levels in the model.
The Future P/E was trimmed from around 25.0x to about 24.0x, suggesting slightly lower assumed valuation multiples for Symrise in the forward period.

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Key Takeaways

Operational efficiency initiatives, portfolio optimization, and disciplined cost controls are driving lasting margin improvement, free cash flow, and overall earnings quality.
Focus on R&D, natural ingredient innovation, and emerging market expansion positions Symrise for premium pricing and resilient, above-market long-term growth.
Competitive pressures, macroeconomic headwinds, and weaker end-market demand are likely to constrain growth and margins despite cost-saving and transformation initiatives.

Catalysts

About Symrise

Operates as a supplier of fragrances, flavorings, cosmetic base materials and active ingredients, and functional ingredients and solutions in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, North America, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Symrise is executing a multi-year transformation focused on operational efficiency, portfolio optimization, and disciplined cost management, which is already yielding substantial margin improvements (notably, a gross margin increase of 250 bps and an EBITDA margin uplift), laying the groundwork for structurally higher net margins and improved earnings compounding.
Ongoing and targeted cost savings measures (€40 million in 2025, following €50 million in 2024) and optimized procurement strategies are expected to deliver sustainable operating leverage and support both margin expansion and stronger free cash flow generation.
Symrise's continued investment in R&D, innovation, and proprietary launches in natural and functional ingredients targets growing consumer demand for health-conscious, sustainable, and science-backed solutions, positioning the firm to capture secular volume growth and premium pricing, directly benefiting revenue and margins over the long term.
Expansion in high-growth emerging markets such as Latin America and Asia Pacific, alongside a proactive approach to portfolio management (divestments of non-core, lower-margin businesses), is expected to boost top-line growth, increase geographic diversification, and strengthen resilience against developed market stagnation.
As global customers increasingly outsource ingredient complexity due to rising demand for product innovation, personalization, and regulatory-driven reformulations, Symrise's specialty expertise and enhanced customer relationships are likely to translate into above-market revenue growth and defend against commoditization risks.

Symrise Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Symrise's revenue will grow by 4.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.2% today to 11.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €666.0 million (and earnings per share of €4.75) by about September 2028, up from €506.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 23.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Chemicals industry at 22.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.08% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Symrise Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company is experiencing a normalization and slowdown in several key end markets, notably in Pet Nutrition and Pet Food, due to cautious consumer sentiment and price pressures, which may dampen segment revenue growth and compress net margins in the near to mid-term.
Management has revised down its organic growth guidance for 2025 from 5%-7% to 2%-5%, reflecting a more challenging global demand environment and slower market growth expectations; sustained slower growth could limit revenue and earnings upside potential.
Increasing regional and local competition, particularly in pet and nutrition markets, as well as pressure from private label brands, could erode Symrise's pricing power and market share, resulting in pressured revenues and potentially lower net margins.
Currency headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty in regions like North America have resulted in negative FX impacts and weaker organic growth, highlighting ongoing exposure to global economic and political volatility that could impact overall earnings and free cash flow.
The company's transformation and cost savings initiatives, while driving margin improvement, also require reinvestment into digitalization, R&D, and organizational change, which introduces execution risk and could put pressure on near-term margins if savings do not sufficiently offset increased investment or if efficiency gains are not fully realized.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €109.803 for Symrise based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €130.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €90.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €5.8 billion, earnings will come to €666.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.5%.
Given the current share price of €83.44, the analyst price target of €109.8 is 24.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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