Last Update 22 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 11%

CRMD: Updated Revenue Guidance And Investor Day Will Shape Upside Potential

Narrative Update

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for CorMedix from about US$19 to roughly US$16.86. This reflects updated expectations for slower revenue growth and lower profit margins, partially offset by a higher assumed future P/E multiple following the company's reduced long term guidance and recent research updates.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates around CorMedix focus heavily on the company’s revised long term revenue outlook, especially for DefenCath, and how that might feed into execution risk and valuation over the next few years.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the updated price targets, such as US$16, as still implying upside potential relative to current trading levels. This suggests they see room for value if management can deliver on the new plan.
The introduction of formal FY26 and 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance gives investors clearer guardrails for modeling growth. Some see this as a step toward reducing uncertainty around the story.
Expectations for more detail at the upcoming Investor Day on February 10 are seen as a chance for management to clarify assumptions behind the new guidance and potentially rebuild confidence in execution.
Some bullish analysts appear comfortable maintaining positive ratings despite lower targets. This signals that they still see CorMedix as a potential growth story if the revised ramp for DefenCath is met.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that the roughly 40% gap between FY26 revenue guidance and prior Street expectations points to a materially slower build. This can weigh on growth assumptions in their models.
The new 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance, at roughly half of at least one prior estimate, raises questions around product adoption, pricing, or market penetration and increases perceived execution risk.
Lowered price targets across the Street indicate reduced conviction in the previous upside case. This can pressure valuation multiples if investors assign a higher risk discount.
Some cautious analysts may see the sharper than expected tail off in DefenCath expectations as a signal that management’s prior long term outlook was too optimistic, prompting more conservative scenarios in their forecasts.

What's in the News

CorMedix scheduled an Analyst/Investor Day to provide background on the medical need and market potential for REZZAYO in prophylaxis and DefenCath in TPN, along with insights on the future direction of the business (Key Developments).
The company issued 2026 revenue guidance in a range of US$300 million to US$320 million (Key Developments).
CorMedix provided net revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 in a range of US$115 million to US$135 million (Key Developments).
Interim real world evidence data from CorMedix and U.S. Renal Care reported ongoing use of DefenCath in more than 3,000 adult hemodialysis patients per month and outlined a two year study assessing infection rates, hospitalizations, missed treatments, and resource use (Key Developments).
The company proposed amendments to its Certificate of Incorporation that would, subject to approval, limit common stockholder voting on certain preferred stock related changes, with effectiveness contingent on filing with the Delaware Secretary of State (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The updated estimate moves from about US$19.00 to roughly US$16.86, indicating a moderate reduction in the modeled value per share.
Discount Rate: The rate remains essentially unchanged at around 6.96%, suggesting little shift in the assumed risk profile used in the analysis.
Revenue Growth: The long term revenue growth assumption moves from about 28.79% to roughly 22.31%, a meaningful step down in expected growth.
Net Profit Margin: The margin assumption adjusts from about 47.86% to roughly 42.03%, indicating a lower projected level of profitability.
Future P/E: The target future P/E multiple increases from about 10.19x to roughly 12.01x, reflecting a higher assumed valuation multiple on future earnings.

Acquisition and integration efforts diversify revenue streams and improve operational efficiency, supporting stronger earnings and margin growth.
Expanded pipeline and portfolio address rising demand in infection control, enhancing market penetration and supporting long-term profitability.
The company faces integration challenges, regulatory risks, pricing pressures, rising debt, and heavy reliance on a few key drugs, threatening revenue growth and margin stability.

Catalysts

About CorMedix

A biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapeutic products for life-threatening diseases and conditions in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The acquisition of Melinta Therapeutics immediately diversifies and stabilizes CorMedix's revenue base by adding $125–$135 million in expected 2025 revenue from multiple acute care and infectious disease products, which should support top-line growth and enhance earnings visibility.
Ongoing and pipeline expansions (such as DefenCath's Phase III trials for additional indications and the potential REZZAYO label expansion) target growing patient populations driven by aging demographics and increased chronic disease prevalence, positioning CorMedix to capitalize on long-term increases in demand and deliver sustained revenue growth.
Integration of Melinta's established hospital commercial infrastructure with CorMedix's assets is expected to unlock $35–$45 million in annual operating expense synergies, improving gross and net margins through increased operational efficiency and economies of scale.
Broadening the product portfolio in anti-infectives directly aligns with rising concerns over antimicrobial resistance, increasing the market value and healthcare priority for preventive therapies like DefenCath and REZZAYO, which should drive market penetration and support pricing power and long-term profitability.
System-wide rollout of DefenCath at a leading dialysis operator (~2,000 clinics and ~6,000 targeted patients) signals early but significant adoption momentum, pointing to potential upside in near-term revenue, cash flow, and eventual standard-of-care positioning amidst a healthcare environment focused on reducing costly infections.

CorMedix Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CorMedix's revenue will grow by 52.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 42.1% today to 56.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $244.7 million (and earnings per share of $2.58) by about September 2028, up from $51.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $360.4 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $129 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 20.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Pharmaceuticals industry at 19.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CorMedix Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The acquisition of Melinta Therapeutics was the result of a competitive auction process with multiple bidders, which could mean CorMedix paid a premium for the assets and faces integration risks; high acquisition costs and potential integration challenges may lead to unexpected expenses or margin compression impacting long-term net margins and earnings.
Melinta's and CorMedix's portfolios operate in highly competitive anti-infective and acute care markets where, as stated, lower-cost generics are typically tried before newer branded drugs, increasing pricing and reimbursement pressures that can constrain revenue growth and result in lower realized net prices over the long run.
The anticipated future growth from key assets like the expanded indication for REZZAYO and ongoing Phase III/label expansion programs introduce significant regulatory and clinical trial risk, where delays or failures in trial outcomes or NDA approvals could materially alter forecasted future revenues and disrupt expected earnings growth.
The combined business is taking on significant new debt ($150 million convertible debt with additional $110 million cash used), increasing financial leverage and future interest expense, which may pressure net income and cash flows, particularly if revenue forecasts or synergy estimates fail to fully materialize.
Although diversification is cited as a benefit, the success of the expanded portfolio still largely depends on a handful of inpatient and outpatient anti-infectives and pipeline programs; heavy reliance on these core assets exposes CorMedix to risks of generic erosion, challenging payer dynamics, or shifts toward non-pharmacological prevention, all of which could put long-term revenue streams and margin sustainability at risk.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $20.4 for CorMedix based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $23.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $433.6 million, earnings will come to $244.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $13.7, the analyst price target of $20.4 is 32.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on CorMedix?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Acquisition And Pipeline Expansion Will Unlock Healthcare Potential