Last Update 23 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 5.03%

TXG: ARK Buying And Soft 2026 Outlook Will Restrain Upside Potential

Analysts have nudged their 10x Genomics price target higher to about $18, up from around $17.36. This reflects slightly updated fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, alongside recent Street research that includes an $18 target and continued institutional interest.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish and cautious voices are both active around 10x Genomics, and the recent reset in targets and guidance is shaping how they think about risk and reward from here.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the move to a US$18 target as a reflection of updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins, and future P/E that they view as more in line with current Street work.
Some view the recent adjustment to 2026 expectations as creating room for upside if execution improves against what they see as already soft guidance.
Interest from institutions, including incremental buying of shares by high profile investors, is interpreted as a sign that long term growth potential in life science tools remains appealing at current valuations.
By lifting targets for several names in the space at once, bullish analysts are signaling a view that the group’s risk and reward profile has become more balanced after prior resets.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point out that the bar for Q4 results is now higher after recent share rallies, which could make the stock more sensitive to any execution hiccups.
Soft guidance into 2026 is also read cautionarily, as it implies management teams across the space are still calibrating to demand trends and profitability constraints.
The maintained Hold views suggest some analysts see limited near term upside at current levels when they compare the updated US$18 fair value to execution and visibility risks.
Some cautious investors may treat recent institutional buying as confirmation that expectations are already embedded in the price, rather than a fresh upside catalyst.

What's in the News

Cathie Wood's ARK Investment bought 222,000 shares of 10x Genomics in a single day, highlighting ongoing institutional interest in the stock (Periodicals).
10x Genomics announced a collaboration with the Cancer Research Institute to use its Chromium single cell and Xenium spatial platforms, combined with AI, to build a large immuno oncology dataset targeting more than 20,000 samples and profiling over 500 million cells over time (Key Developments).
The company entered a collaboration with Dana Farber Cancer Institute to analyze tumor samples from hundreds of patients and plans to build a CLIA certified lab, with the aim of incorporating single cell and spatial tumor analysis into potential diagnostic workflows (Key Developments).
10x Genomics and Brigham & Women's Hospital launched a long term autoimmune disease study using the Chromium Flex single cell assay to profile blood samples from about 1,000 patients and healthy controls, linking immune signatures with disease activity and treatment response (Key Developments).
10x Genomics updated revenue guidance for Q4 2025 to US$154 million to US$158 million, which the company states would reflect a 6% decline year on year and 5% sequential growth at the midpoint, and introduced the next generation Flex assay that supports up to 384 samples and 100 million cells per week in a 96 well plate format (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: updated from about US$17.36 to about US$18.23 per share, representing a small upward move in the modelled target level.
Discount Rate: adjusted marginally from about 7.81% to about 7.82%, indicating only a very small change in the implied risk setting.
Revenue Growth: tweaked from about 2.92% to about 2.90%, reflecting a slight reduction in the modelled growth input.
Net Profit Margin: revised from about 15.66% to about 15.69%, showing a minor uplift in expected profitability in the framework used.
Future P/E: reset from about 27.80x to about 29.16x, indicating that a somewhat higher valuation multiple is now being used in the assumptions.

Expansion of product offerings and strategic acquisitions are enhancing innovation, reducing operational costs, and solidifying leadership in advanced genomics tools.
Growth in global partnerships and improved international presence are increasing market opportunities and supporting resilient, long-term revenue streams.
Macroeconomic pressures, shrinking pricing power, product shifts, and ongoing losses are undermining revenue growth, margin stability, and the path to profitability.

Catalysts

About 10x Genomics

A life science technology company, develops and sells instruments, consumables, and software for analyzing biological systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Adoption of new lower-cost consumables (like GEM-X Flex and Universal On Chip Multiplex) is increasing reaction volumes and enabling scale, positioning 10x Genomics to capture growing demand in single-cell and multiomic analysis driven by precision medicine, likely supporting long-term revenue and recurring, high-margin consumables sales.
Recent and upcoming product launches-including Flex v2 (targeting higher throughput, lower costs, and AI integration), Visium HD extensions, and Xenium RNA plus protein-are expanding the range of applications and reinforcing 10x's leadership in advanced genomics tools, expected to drive both top-line growth and sustain premium pricing over time.
The acquisition of Scale Biosciences broadens 10x Genomics' technical capabilities in single-cell analysis, allowing integration of foundational innovations like combinatorial indexing and quantum barcoding, which may accelerate innovation, reduce costs, and open up new high-value markets, positively impacting future revenue growth and margins.
Global investment in genomics, including collaborations like the TISHUMAP initiative and large-scale AI-driven studies using 10x platforms, is increasing the customer base and creating new high-throughput, high-complexity data requirements-which 10x is well positioned to supply, driving expanded total addressable market and future revenue upside.
Strengthening international distribution, particularly improved execution in China and Europe, together with strategic responses to tariff and CapEx headwinds, helps 10x diversify regional risks and access untapped markets, enhancing revenue growth resilience despite the currently challenging US academic funding environment.

10x Genomics Earnings and Revenue Growth

10x Genomics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming 10x Genomics's revenue will grow by 2.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that 10x Genomics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate 10x Genomics's profit margin will increase from -13.1% to the average US Life Sciences industry of 14.2% in 3 years.
If 10x Genomics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $97.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.72) by about September 2028, up from $-84.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -19.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Life Sciences industry at 29.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.84% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.24%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

10x Genomics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing macroeconomic and funding uncertainty, especially in the US and Europe, is dampening academic and government research budgets, leading to conservative spending, extended project timelines, delays in equipment purchases, and heightened price sensitivity-directly pressuring future revenue growth and earning stability.
Lower average selling prices and continued discounting of instruments (notably Chromium and spatial platforms) to address customers' CapEx constraints indicate shrinking pricing power and may compress gross margins over time, especially as capital spending headwinds persist.
Product transitions to lower-cost solutions (e.g. GEM-X Flex, Flex v2, and Scale Biosciences' combinatorial indexing), while driving higher reaction volumes, are creating a near-term headwind to consumables revenue growth, as price declines are not yet fully offset by increased volume, risking overall revenue and operating leverage.
Temporary boosts in key geographies (such as APAC/China) from one-off events like tariff-related pull forwards may not be sustainable, while geopolitical risks and possible export restrictions could impact international expansion potential and geographically diversify revenue streams.
Persistent operating losses (excluding one-off gains from litigation settlements) and the need for ongoing cost discipline in R&D and SG&A suggest that, despite cash reserves, the business remains vulnerable to weaker top-line performance and delayed return to profitability-making net earnings recovery uncertain in a prolonged challenging environment.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.077 for 10x Genomics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $17.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $688.4 million, earnings will come to $97.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
Given the current share price of $13.34, the analyst price target of $15.08 is 11.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Advanced Genomics Tools Will Shape Future Precision Medicine