Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.31%

TXG: ARK Buying And Product Advances Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target for 10x Genomics slightly higher, from approximately 16.36 dollars to 16.57 dollars, citing incremental improvements in long term growth assumptions and renewed institutional interest following sizable recent share purchases.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst reaction to the latest moves in 10x Genomics stock has been mixed, with many highlighting both the opportunities created by recent institutional buying and the ongoing execution risks that could affect the company’s valuation trajectory.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to the sizeable purchase of approximately 222,000 shares by a high profile, growth focused investment firm as a signal of renewed confidence in 10x Genomics long term platform potential and upside to current growth assumptions.
They argue that incremental upgrades to revenue and margin forecasts, even if modest, can have an outsized impact on valuation at current depressed levels, especially if the company can demonstrate consistent instrument placements and consumables pull through.
Some believe the growing institutional base could reduce share price volatility over time and support a higher earnings multiple if execution against the product roadmap and commercialization plans improves.
Bullish analysts also highlight that a stronger balance sheet and access to capital should allow continued investment in innovation without immediate pressure to cut spending, preserving the company’s long term competitive moat.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that high profile institutional buying does not eliminate near term execution risk, noting that any slowdown in academic or biopharma spending could still weigh on instrument demand and revenue growth.
They remain concerned that the company must translate its scientific leadership into more predictable, scalable commercial performance before a sustained re rating in valuation multiples is justified.
Some highlight ongoing competitive pressures in single cell and spatial genomics as a potential drag on pricing power and market share, which could constrain operating leverage even if top line growth improves.
Bearish analysts also warn that the modest upward revision in price target leaves limited room for error, and that any missteps in product launches or regulatory developments could quickly reverse recent gains in investor sentiment.

What's in the News

Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management purchased approximately 222,000 shares of 10x Genomics, signaling renewed institutional conviction in the company’s long term growth potential (periodicals).
10x Genomics and partners at the Garvan Institute and University of Tokyo launched the ASTRA initiative to build a 2,000 sample pan cancer spatial atlas using the Xenium platform, aiming to create a shared precision oncology reference for underrepresented Asia Pacific populations (key developments).
The company introduced a next generation Flex assay with automation compatible, plate based multiplexing, enabling single cell profiling of up to 384 samples and 100 million cells per week for large scale functional genomics and translational studies (key developments).
10x Genomics provided fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of 154 million to 158 million dollars, indicating a 6 percent year over year decline and 5 percent sequential growth at the midpoint (key developments).
10x Genomics and Anthropic announced a collaboration to integrate 10x analysis tools into Claude for Life Sciences via the Model Context Protocol, allowing researchers to run single cell and spatial analyses through natural language queries instead of code (key developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: nudged higher from approximately 16.36 dollars to 16.57 dollars, reflecting a marginal upward adjustment in the intrinsic value estimate.
Discount Rate: edged down slightly from about 7.83 percent to 7.80 percent, implying a modest reduction in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at around 3.20 percent, indicating no material revision to long term top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin: eased marginally from roughly 15.51 percent to 15.50 percent, suggesting minimal impact on long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: increased slightly from about 26.25 times to 26.58 times, signaling a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

Expansion of product offerings and strategic acquisitions are enhancing innovation, reducing operational costs, and solidifying leadership in advanced genomics tools.
Growth in global partnerships and improved international presence are increasing market opportunities and supporting resilient, long-term revenue streams.
Macroeconomic pressures, shrinking pricing power, product shifts, and ongoing losses are undermining revenue growth, margin stability, and the path to profitability.

Catalysts

About 10x Genomics

A life science technology company, develops and sells instruments, consumables, and software for analyzing biological systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Adoption of new lower-cost consumables (like GEM-X Flex and Universal On Chip Multiplex) is increasing reaction volumes and enabling scale, positioning 10x Genomics to capture growing demand in single-cell and multiomic analysis driven by precision medicine, likely supporting long-term revenue and recurring, high-margin consumables sales.
Recent and upcoming product launches-including Flex v2 (targeting higher throughput, lower costs, and AI integration), Visium HD extensions, and Xenium RNA plus protein-are expanding the range of applications and reinforcing 10x's leadership in advanced genomics tools, expected to drive both top-line growth and sustain premium pricing over time.
The acquisition of Scale Biosciences broadens 10x Genomics' technical capabilities in single-cell analysis, allowing integration of foundational innovations like combinatorial indexing and quantum barcoding, which may accelerate innovation, reduce costs, and open up new high-value markets, positively impacting future revenue growth and margins.
Global investment in genomics, including collaborations like the TISHUMAP initiative and large-scale AI-driven studies using 10x platforms, is increasing the customer base and creating new high-throughput, high-complexity data requirements-which 10x is well positioned to supply, driving expanded total addressable market and future revenue upside.
Strengthening international distribution, particularly improved execution in China and Europe, together with strategic responses to tariff and CapEx headwinds, helps 10x diversify regional risks and access untapped markets, enhancing revenue growth resilience despite the currently challenging US academic funding environment.

10x Genomics Earnings and Revenue Growth

10x Genomics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming 10x Genomics's revenue will grow by 2.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that 10x Genomics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate 10x Genomics's profit margin will increase from -13.1% to the average US Life Sciences industry of 14.2% in 3 years.
If 10x Genomics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $97.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.72) by about September 2028, up from $-84.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -19.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Life Sciences industry at 29.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.84% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.24%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

10x Genomics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing macroeconomic and funding uncertainty, especially in the US and Europe, is dampening academic and government research budgets, leading to conservative spending, extended project timelines, delays in equipment purchases, and heightened price sensitivity-directly pressuring future revenue growth and earning stability.
Lower average selling prices and continued discounting of instruments (notably Chromium and spatial platforms) to address customers' CapEx constraints indicate shrinking pricing power and may compress gross margins over time, especially as capital spending headwinds persist.
Product transitions to lower-cost solutions (e.g. GEM-X Flex, Flex v2, and Scale Biosciences' combinatorial indexing), while driving higher reaction volumes, are creating a near-term headwind to consumables revenue growth, as price declines are not yet fully offset by increased volume, risking overall revenue and operating leverage.
Temporary boosts in key geographies (such as APAC/China) from one-off events like tariff-related pull forwards may not be sustainable, while geopolitical risks and possible export restrictions could impact international expansion potential and geographically diversify revenue streams.
Persistent operating losses (excluding one-off gains from litigation settlements) and the need for ongoing cost discipline in R&D and SG&A suggest that, despite cash reserves, the business remains vulnerable to weaker top-line performance and delayed return to profitability-making net earnings recovery uncertain in a prolonged challenging environment.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.077 for 10x Genomics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $17.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $688.4 million, earnings will come to $97.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
Given the current share price of $13.34, the analyst price target of $15.08 is 11.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Advanced Genomics Tools Will Shape Future Precision Medicine