Last Update 14 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 6.61%

VYX: Recurring Revenue And Buyback Authorization Will Support Future Upside

The analyst price target for NCR Voyix is lowered by about $0.94 to $13.25, as analysts factor in reduced fair value and profit margin assumptions. They continue to highlight solid customer retention, recurring revenue trends, and an undemanding valuation, with investors waiting for more consistent execution.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on NCR Voyix reflects a mix of optimism about the core business and caution around execution and valuation, with multiple firms trimming their price targets while reiterating varied ratings.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts continue to point to solid customer retention rates and new customer wins as support for the long term growth story.
Annual recurring revenue is reported to have risen 2% in Q4, which these analysts view as an encouraging sign for the durability of the revenue base.
Some price targets, even after being lowered to the low to mid teens, still sit above current levels. Bullish analysts frame this as evidence that they see room for upside if execution improves.
Valuation is described as undemanding. Bullish analysts suggest that consistent delivery on guidance and profitability goals could help close the gap between price targets and the current share price.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have reduced their targets more sharply, with one high profile firm trimming its target to $9 and maintaining a Neutral stance. This signals caution on the near term risk and reward balance.
Lowered targets across the Street point to concern that prior fair value assumptions may have been too optimistic given recent Q4 results and updated margin expectations.
There is a clear focus on execution risk, with several firms highlighting that investors appear to be waiting for sustained, consistent performance before assigning a higher valuation multiple.
Differing views between bullish and bearish analysts on appropriate target ranges, from single digits to the mid teens, underline ongoing debate about how quickly NCR Voyix can translate its recurring revenue base into stronger profitability.

What's in the News

Pilot and NCR Voyix entered a five year exclusive platform agreement that will extend Voyix point of sale and fuel solutions, plus additional platform capabilities, across Pilot travel centers to support more than 1.2 million daily guests and standardize store operations nationwide (Client Announcements).
NCR Voyix announced a new engagement with 7-Eleven Philippines, which selected Voyix POS on the Voyix Commerce Platform and related services to upgrade store technology and support more than 4,500 locations, with a pilot planned for Q4 2026 and a broader rollout in 2027 (Client Announcements).
The company increased its share repurchase authorization to US$300 million as of February 17, 2026 (Buyback, Change in Plan Terms).
NCR Voyix provided earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, with expected revenue in a range of US$2.21b to US$2.33b (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed).
NCR Voyix unveiled a next generation portfolio of microservices based applications built on the Voyix Commerce Platform, including POS, self checkout, back office, supply chain, kitchen, analytics and loyalty tools, with live deployments reported across multiple geographies and a showcase scheduled at NRF 26 in New York City (Product Related Announcements).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Trimmed from $14.19 to $13.25, reflecting a modest reduction in the modeled equity value.
Discount Rate: Increased from 11.62% to 12.33%, indicating a slightly higher required return being applied to future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Updated from a 10.47% decline to a 7.36% decline, implying a less severe expected contraction in the revenue outlook.
Profit Margin: Reduced from 14.07% to 7.67%, a significant reset in expected profitability levels.
Future P/E: Raised from 10.11x to 16.27x, suggesting a higher valuation multiple is being applied to forward earnings assumptions.

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Key Takeaways

Rapid shift to software-driven, cloud-based and payment solutions is increasing recurring revenues, improving profitability, and reducing reliance on lower-margin hardware.
Enhanced digital capabilities and enterprise focus position the company to benefit from global automation and digital transformation trends, supporting sustained cash flow and earnings growth.
Structural decline in legacy hardware, rising costs, and increased competition from cloud-native fintech threaten NCR Voyix's margins, growth prospects, and long-term earnings stability.

Catalysts

About NCR Voyix

Provides digital commerce solutions for retail stores and restaurants in the United States, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Growing demand for integrated cloud-based POS and self-checkout solutions-fueled by enterprise retailers' and restaurants' urgent need to modernize infrastructure and create seamless omnichannel experiences-is significantly expanding NCR Voyix's addressable market and driving sustained software revenue growth and higher recurring revenue mix, supporting both top-line expansion and improved revenue visibility.
Accelerating consumer and merchant shift to cashless, contactless, and digitally integrated payments is increasing the need for advanced payment infrastructure; NCR Voyix's strategic expansion of end-to-end payment capabilities via its Worldpay and Voyix Pay platforms broadens wallet share opportunities, supports cross-selling, and is expected to boost net margins due to higher-margin payment streams.
Enterprise adoption of AI-powered solutions (e.g., Picklist Assist, Edge virtualization) implemented through the VCP is strengthening NCR Voyix's competitive edge, driving higher customer retention, enabling upselling of higher-value analytics and store management add-ons, and contributing to recurring SaaS revenue and margin expansion.
Successful transformation toward recurring SaaS and cloud-based models-evidenced by a 16% YoY increase in platform sites and a steady increase in software ARR-is improving gross and EBITDA margins while reducing hardware exposure, setting the stage for double-digit earnings and free cash flow growth as hardware revenue becomes a smaller portion of the mix.
Strategic divestitures, leadership team realignment, and renewed enterprise sales focus (including new logo wins and deeper global relationships) are positioning NCR Voyix to capitalize on secular automation and digital transformation trends, enhancing operating leverage and supporting a multi-year ramp in free cash flow and profitability.

NCR Voyix Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming NCR Voyix's revenue will decrease by 10.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.8% today to 11.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $224.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.05) by about September 2028, up from $-75.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -23.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.3% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

NCR Voyix Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent declines in hardware sales, reflected in an 8% drop in total revenue and a 12% decline in retail segment revenue, signal structural vulnerability as digital-first and cashless transactions continue to marginalize legacy POS and hardware, which could create sustained headwinds for top-line growth.
Despite cloud and software ARR gains, ongoing transition costs, elevated CapEx (up to $170 million versus originally guided $150 million), and recent restructuring charges may compress net margins in the near term as NCR Voyix shifts its business model, potentially straining earnings if recurring software growth does not accelerate sufficiently.
Heightened tariff exposure and global supply chain uncertainty-especially given the $8–12 million annual tariff impact not expected to abate soon-raise the risk of recurring cost pressures or the necessity to pass on expenses to customers, which could negatively impact gross margins and customer retention.
NCR Voyix's customer base is concentrated among large enterprise clients, making it susceptible to contract losses or pricing pressure in the face of intensifying competition from cloud-native fintech and payments providers, which could increase revenue volatility and threaten recurring revenue growth.
The industry's move towards open standards, rapid adoption of mobile payments, and tightening regulatory/cybersecurity requirements pose ongoing risks that may require sustained investment, squeeze operating margins, and erode NCR Voyix's ability to differentiate its core transaction processing software, ultimately limiting margin expansion and long-term earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.875 for NCR Voyix based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $14.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.9 billion, earnings will come to $224.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.7%.
Given the current share price of $12.76, the analyst price target of $15.88 is 19.6% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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