Last Update 20 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 1.58%

HUBS: AI And Multi Hub Adoption Will Support Future Reacceleration Potential

We trim our HubSpot fair value estimate by about $9 to $570 per share, as analysts modestly recalibrate price targets based on more tempered revenue growth assumptions. This is partially offset by slightly firmer margin and P/E inputs following mixed but generally constructive recent research updates.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on HubSpot reflects a mix of optimism around execution and product positioning, balanced against concerns about growth durability, competitive pressure from artificial intelligence and valuation risk after a period of elevated expectations.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to consistent double digit revenue and earnings growth and see this supporting HubSpot's role as a scaled customer platform. At the same time, they are trimming price targets to reflect more conservative growth and multiple assumptions.
Several reports describe recent quarters as solid on both revenue and margin, with some citing beats versus internal estimates. They also call out strong reseller and partner feedback into Q3 and Q4 as a positive signal for execution.
AI is seen by many bullish analysts as a multi year opportunity. HubSpot's integrated platform and focus on AI features are viewed as tools to deepen adoption across hubs and support longer term monetization as customers add more modules.
Some bullish analysts highlight billings, net customer additions and multi hub adoption trends as supportive of the long term growth algorithm, even if near term revenue guidance and expectations are more muted.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts express concern that revenue growth is unlikely to improve materially in the near term. Several reports cite steady but not accelerating growth and Q3 and Q4 outlooks that did not satisfy earlier investor hopes for faster reacceleration.
There is caution that HubSpot could be less resilient to AI disruption than peers that focus on larger enterprise customers. This could pressure growth expectations and the premium implied in some valuation frameworks.
Multiple firms have reduced price targets, linking the cuts to software multiple compression, billings growth that fell short of investor expectations, and limited visibility into the timing of any move back to 20% plus constant currency growth.
Some bearish analysts frame current conditions as requiring more patience. They note that growth holding in a steady range does little to quickly re engage investors who had been looking for a faster inflection, and that sentiment may remain cautious until guidance and reported results clearly support higher growth estimates.

What's in the News

HubSpot reported that from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025 it repurchased 780,111 shares, representing 1.48% of shares, for US$375m, completing a total buyback of 996,708 shares, or 1.89%, for US$500m under the program announced on May 8, 2025 (Key Developments).
For Q4 2025, HubSpot guided to total revenue of US$828.0m to US$830.0m, operating income of US$39.114m to US$40.114m, net income of US$40.641m to US$41.891m, and net income per basic and diluted share of US$0.77 to US$0.80 (Key Developments).
For full year 2025, HubSpot guided to total revenue of US$3.113b to US$3.115b, an operating loss of US$1.641m to US$0.641m, net income of US$33.673m to US$34.923m, and net income per basic and diluted share of US$0.64 to US$0.67 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate was trimmed slightly from US$579.55 per share to US$570.36 per share.
The discount rate was nudged up from 8.47% to 8.47%, reflecting a small change in the risk input.
Revenue growth eased modestly from 16.37% to 16.15% in the updated assumptions.
The net profit margin was lifted slightly from 9.17% to 9.22% in the new model.
The future P/E was reduced slightly from 90.77x to 89.36x in the valuation framework.

Expansion into integrated cloud platforms, AI capabilities, and upmarket enterprise clients is driving higher recurring revenue, larger deals, and improved margins.
Accelerated international growth and adaptation to evolving buyer behavior are broadening customer reach and supporting durable, long-term business expansion.
Disruption from AI, economic sensitivity of its core market, rising competition, unproven monetization models, and international hurdles all threaten HubSpot's sustained growth and margins.

Catalysts

About HubSpot

Provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

HubSpot is a direct beneficiary of the rapid digitization of SMBs and enterprises, as more customers consolidate their marketing, sales, and service stacks onto integrated cloud platforms like HubSpot-evidenced by rising multi-hub adoption and seat upgrades, which should drive recurring revenue and higher average revenue per customer over time.
The company's quick pivot to adapt to shifting buyer behavior-such as declining traditional SEO and the rise of AI-powered search-positions HubSpot to capture new sources of lead generation (YouTube, social, newsletters, LLM citations), supporting customer growth and improving the durability of top-line expansion.
Rapid adoption and expansion of AI-based functionality-such as Customer Agent, Prospecting Agent, and connectors to leading LLMs-are driving higher customer engagement, sticky workflows, and early-stage monetization opportunities (especially via credit-based AI features), setting the stage for stronger net dollar retention and potentially higher net margins in 2026 and beyond.
Ongoing movement upmarket into larger enterprise customers, combined with a seat-based pricing model and cross-sell of premium platform capabilities (Core Seat, Smart CRM), is leading to larger deals and higher gross margins, which should boost earnings power as operating leverage increases.
Accelerated international growth-reflected in international revenue expansion outpacing domestic and now accounting for nearly half of total revenue-diversifies the business, reduces geographic concentration risk, and provides a long runway for sustained revenue and earnings growth as HubSpot localizes and scales abroad.

HubSpot Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming HubSpot's revenue will grow by 17.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -0.4% today to 8.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $388.4 million (and earnings per share of $6.41) by about September 2028, up from $-11.9 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $189 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 127.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2089.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.07% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.43%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

HubSpot Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The ongoing disruption of SEO and organic search due to generative AI and declining global organic traffic may challenge HubSpot's historical customer acquisition strategies, risking slower top-of-funnel growth and impacting long-term lead generation and revenue.
HubSpot's heavy focus on the SMB and mid-market segments exposes it to higher churn risk and revenue instability during macroeconomic downturns, as these customers are often the first to reduce software spend when faced with economic uncertainty.
Rising competition from larger, consolidated SaaS providers and emerging Agentic/AI-powered platforms could lead to downward pricing pressure, higher customer acquisition costs, and increased difficulty in sustaining market share growth, all of which may compress net margins and earnings.
The company's new AI agent and credit-based monetization model is in very early stages, with unclear adoption rates and monetization patterns; prolonged or unsuccessful monetization of these new products could limit durable revenue growth and delay improvements in net profit.
HubSpot's international expansion may face obstacles due to localization requirements, regulatory complexities, and diverse go-to-market needs; slower growth outside North America could cap TAM expansion, thereby constraining long-term revenue and earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $695.33 for HubSpot based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $910.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $589.88.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.6 billion, earnings will come to $388.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 127.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $472.71, the analyst price target of $695.33 is 32.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

HUBS: Future Share Momentum Will Be Driven By AI Demand And Partner Strength