Last Update 25 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 3.57%

JAMF: Pending Francisco Partners Buyout Will Cap Upside Yet Support Fair Value

Analysts trimmed their fair value estimate for Jamf Holding to about $12.44, a move of roughly $0.43, as they align their price targets with the proposed US$13.05 per share cash acquisition and updated views on growth, profitability and future P/E assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Several bullish analysts point to the US$13.05 per share all cash offer as a clean exit point that reduces uncertainty around Jamf Holding's standalone execution risks.
The US$13 price targets cited around the deal level suggest limited disagreement on valuation at this stage, which can help anchor expectations for investors assessing the offer.
The view that the transaction represents a "decent exit" signals that some analysts see the deal price as reasonably aligned with Jamf Holding's fundamentals and risk profile.
The small spread between the US$13 targets and the US$13.05 offer indicates that, in analysts' models, there is not a large valuation gap left unaddressed by the proposed acquisition price.

Bearish Takeaways

Multiple downgrades to Neutral reflect a shift away from an upside driven investment thesis toward a more deal capped view of potential returns.
JPMorgan's move from Overweight to Neutral, anchored around a US$13 target, underlines that analysts now see limited upside potential relative to the agreed acquisition price.
The reduction of at least one target from US$23 to US$13.05 highlights how prior expectations for longer term growth and multiple expansion are now constrained by the takeout level.
The comment that an alternative bid is unlikely suggests that bearish analysts see a low probability of a bidding contest that could materially re rate the stock above the current offer.

What's in the News

Francisco Partners entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Jamf Holding for US$13.05 per share in cash, valuing the deal at about US$1.9b. Jamf is set to become a private company while keeping its name and Minneapolis headquarters (Key Developments).
A special shareholders meeting is scheduled for January 8, 2026 to vote on adopting the merger agreement, approve on an advisory basis certain executive compensation related to the merger, and potentially adjourn the meeting if additional proxies are needed (Key Developments).
Piper Sandler downgraded Jamf Holding to Neutral from Overweight and reset its price target to US$13.05 from US$23 after the announced all cash acquisition agreement with Francisco Partners (Periodicals).
Jamf updated its third quarter 2025 guidance, stating it expects total revenue for the quarter to be above the high end of its prior range of US$176.0 million to US$178.0 million (Key Developments).
Jamf announced a partnership with UberEther to pursue FedRAMP High and DoD IL5 authorization for its Apple focused cloud offerings, and separately secured a five year RapidIdentity contract with the Inter University Council Purchasing Group of Ohio, making the platform available to 86 member institutions (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to about US$12.44 from about US$12.01, keeping it close to the proposed US$13.05 per share offer.
The discount rate has edged down slightly to about 9.70% from about 9.79%, reflecting a marginally lower required return in the updated model.
The revenue growth assumption is slightly higher at about 9.50% compared with about 9.47% previously, a very small change in the top line outlook used in the valuation work.
The profit margin assumption has moved up modestly to about 12.75% from about 12.41%, indicating a small adjustment to expected profitability in the model.
The future P/E has increased slightly to about 20.61x from about 20.50x, a minimal shift in the multiple applied to Jamf Holding's earnings in the updated framework.

Expanding Apple ecosystem adoption and cross-platform solutions are fueling Jamf's market growth, lowering churn, and positioning for strong recurring revenue as device diversity rises.
Investments in security, AI, and global partnerships are improving cost efficiency, operational scale, and profitability while enhancing customer experience and compliance.
Jamf faces strategic risks from Apple's ecosystem control, market commoditization, sector spending trends, bundled competitors, and the need for rapid security-focused innovation.

Catalysts

About Jamf Holding

Provides management and security solutions for Apple platforms in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The accelerating global adoption of Apple devices in enterprise, education, healthcare, and specialized verticals continues to expand Jamf's total addressable market, especially as organizations shift to hybrid and mobile-first workplace models-supporting sustained multi-year revenue growth.
Heightened organizational focus on cybersecurity and regulatory compliance is driving stronger demand for integrated security and identity management solutions, as demonstrated by 40% YoY growth in Security ARR and successful cross-sell momentum from the recent Identity Automation acquisition-positively impacting both revenue and net margin expansion.
Jamf's recent move to support Android enrollment while keeping Apple at the center of customer mobile strategies enables the company to win larger, cross-platform deals, reduces customer churn, and increases market share, positioning recurring revenue for outperformance as heterogeneous device environments proliferate.
Strategic investments in AI and automation across operations, product, and customer success are improving cost efficiencies, elevating the customer experience, and driving margin leverage, supporting accelerated earnings and operating margin gains.
Expansion of global channel partnerships and increased focus on enterprise sales and automated SMB solutions will drive top-line growth, operational scalability, and improved net profitability by optimizing go-to-market efficiency and leveraging ecosystem partnerships for international expansion.

Jamf Holding Earnings and Revenue Growth

Jamf Holding Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Jamf Holding's revenue will grow by 9.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Jamf Holding will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Jamf Holding's profit margin will increase from -7.4% to the average US Software industry of 13.1% in 3 years.
If Jamf Holding's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $115.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.79) by about September 2028, up from $-49.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -24.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.42% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Jamf Holding Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The increasing adoption of Apple's own native device management and security tools (such as enhancements to Apple Business Manager or managed Apple IDs) poses a significant risk to Jamf's differentiated value proposition, potentially resulting in product commoditization, pricing pressure, and long-term revenue erosion if customers migrate away from best-of-breed, third-party solutions. (Impacts: revenue, net margins)
Jamf's continued reliance on the Apple ecosystem-despite some cross-platform initiatives like new Android enrollment-exposes the company to strategic risks if Apple restricts third-party integrations or modifies its APIs/policies, which could disrupt Jamf's product roadmap and increase customer support and R&D costs. (Impacts: recurring revenue stability, overall net margins)
Consolidation in the Unified Endpoint Management (UEM) market may accelerate, leading to large enterprise IT vendors bundling device management and security as part of broader platforms, thereby reducing Jamf's ability to compete on a standalone basis and putting pressure on both market share and pricing power. (Impacts: topline revenue, gross margins)
Structural trends in public and education sector IT spending-including budgetary constraints, elongated device refresh cycles, and shifting procurement preferences-could slow adoption of specialized device management solutions, pressuring Jamf's core customer base and limiting ARR growth in these high-penetration verticals. (Impacts: ARR growth, customer retention, revenue stability)
Surging cybersecurity threats and changing enterprise security architectures (e.g., shift to zero-trust, focus on network-level rather than device-level security) may demand accelerated R&D and innovation from Jamf; failure to keep pace could erode its competitive position, require higher investment, and compress operating margins. (Impacts: operating margin, R&D expenses, future earnings)

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $14.2 for Jamf Holding based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $23.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $881.7 million, earnings will come to $115.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.4%.
Given the current share price of $9.12, the analyst price target of $14.2 is 35.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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