Digital Migration And AI Will Unlock New Markets

Key Takeaways

• Deep integration with premium digital publishers, AI-driven product innovation, and privacy-focused solutions position Viant for robust long-term growth and greater market relevance.
  
• Expanding into larger advertiser segments and leveraging scalable SaaS operations support stronger customer retention, operating leverage, and improving profitability.
  
• Increasing privacy regulations, walled garden dominance, strong competitors, customer concentration, and industry consolidation threaten Viant's growth, stability, and long-term strategic position.

Catalysts

Operates as an advertising technology company.

• The accelerating migration of ad spend from traditional channels to digital formats-particularly Connected TV (CTV), where Viant now captures 45% of platform spend and is deeply integrated with premium publishers like Disney, Roku and LG-positions the company to benefit from a structural increase in its total addressable market, supporting long-term revenue growth.
  
• Viant's advanced data-driven, privacy-centric addressability solutions (Household ID and IRIS_ID) and growing first-party data integrations allow it to succeed as privacy regulations strengthen and third-party cookies decline, enhancing customer retention and potentially driving higher pricing power, thus supporting improved net margins.
  
• The phased rollout of ViantAI-already driving 85% of ad spend via AI Bidding, with new products like AI Planning, Measurement & Analysis, and the upcoming AI Decisioning solution-vastly improves campaign efficiency, client outcomes, and platform usability; this acts as a catalyst for both incremental revenue from existing clients (value-based pricing/more consolidated spend) and entry into the millions-strong small advertiser segment for materially higher long-term revenue and operating leverage.
  
• Viant has established a pipeline exceeding $250 million in incremental annualized ad spend from major U.S. advertisers (commencing in 2026), demonstrating success in moving beyond its mid-market base and indicating a strong forward-looking catalyst for accelerating revenue and earnings growth.
  
• Ongoing operating leverage from a scalable SaaS model-demonstrated by increased contribution ex-TAC per employee and margin expansion even during periods of investment-suggests that as Viant captures more share and expands into new advertiser segments, both EBITDA margins and overall earnings are likely to move higher over the long term.

Viant Technology Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Viant Technology's revenue will grow by 18.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.5% today to 6.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $38.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.93) by about June 2029, up from $9.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $70.9 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $3.7 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.4x on those 2029 earnings, down from 24.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 26.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.63%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

• The digital advertising industry continues to face heightened privacy regulations and the elimination of third-party cookies, which could reduce Viant's access to user data, potentially diminishing the effectiveness of its addressability and targeting solutions and negatively affecting future revenue growth and customer retention.
  
• The dominance and accelerated adoption of walled gardens (Google, Meta, Amazon) present a major risk, as these platforms control an increasing share of ad spend, making it challenging for independent DSPs like Viant to capture meaningful market share from the millions of SMB and performance advertisers, potentially limiting Viant's long-term revenue and growth prospects.
  
• Persistent inability to gain significant market share versus larger and better-capitalized competitors (such as Amazon, Trade Desk, and Google) could restrict Viant's revenue growth, particularly in the enterprise segment where clients may prefer established partners, impacting Viant's ability to achieve the scale necessary for improved operating leverage and sustainable margin expansion.
  
• High customer concentration risks-evidenced by the notable lost agency client in Q3 and reliance on a few large new business wins (the $250 million pipeline)-mean that losing or failing to onboard key clients could result in material revenue and earnings volatility, undermining the company's financial stability.
  
• Ongoing industry consolidation, as larger ad tech players acquire or vertically integrate with DSPs and ad tech providers, could erode Viant's negotiating power and leave it vulnerable as an independent software platform, putting long-term revenue, net margins, and its ability to attract future M&A premiums at risk.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $17.77 for Viant Technology based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $22.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $16.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $608.1 million, earnings will come to $38.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
• Given the current share price of $11.14, the analyst price target of $17.77 is 37.3% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.