Last Update 15 Dec 25

TREE: Normalizing Rates Will Support Durable Gains In Personal Loans And Insurance

Analysts have nudged their price target on LendingTree higher, reflecting a roughly 15 percent upside from prior levels as they point to broad based double digit growth across all segments, particularly in personal loans and insurance, improved operating leverage, and a more favorable outlook as interest rates normalize.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that LendingTree's recent quarter underscores the durability of its recovery, with double digit growth across personal loans and insurance reinforcing confidence in the sustainability of higher earnings power and supporting recent price target increases.

Some of the most optimistic views also come from read throughs into adjacent businesses, where strong performance in LendingTree's credit and insurance traffic is being cited as evidence of robust demand for digital financial marketplaces. In turn, this supports higher valuation multiples based on faster than expected revenue growth.

JPMorgan's decision to raise its price target to the low $80s, while reiterating an Overweight rating, is viewed as confirmation that execution is tracking ahead of prior expectations. The upgraded outlook across all segments is likely to drive upward revisions to Street estimates if momentum is maintained into coming quarters.

At the same time, analysts are closely watching whether the current pace of new credit card and loan originations, which has been a key driver of upside in related platforms such as Credit Karma, can remain resilient if macro conditions soften or if competitive marketing spend intensifies. These factors could create pressure on customer acquisition efficiency and, by extension, on justified valuation levels.

Many institutional investors are also focused on how effectively LendingTree can convert its improved operating leverage into consistent free cash flow growth and shareholder returns. They note that any missteps in cost discipline or capital allocation could temper the enthusiasm reflected in recent target hikes.

Given these crosscurrents, the debate on the stock is increasingly centered on whether current expectations already discount a full normalization of the rate environment and continued broad based growth, or whether there is still room for meaningful upside as execution continues to outpace the wider lending ecosystem.

What's in the News

The board approves amendments to LendingTree's bylaws to modernize shareholder meeting practices, update nomination and proposal rules, align officer titles with the current management structure, and reflect recent Delaware corporate law changes, with the goal of strengthening governance and administrative efficiency (company filing).
The company reports it has completed its long-running share repurchase program announced in 2014, retiring nearly 2 million shares in total for approximately $254 million, with no shares bought back in the most recent tranche period (company disclosure).
LendingTree updates its outlook, guiding fourth-quarter 2025 revenue to a range of $280 million to $290 million and full-year 2025 revenue to between $1.08 billion and $1.09 billion (company guidance).
Following the unexpected death of longtime Chief Executive Officer Doug Lebda in an all-terrain vehicle accident on October 12, 2025, the board appoints Chief Operating Officer and President Scott Peyree as the new CEO, effective immediately (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately 81.33 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
The Discount Rate has risen slightly from about 9.21 percent to 9.30 percent, reflecting a modest increase in the assumed risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at roughly 5.45 percent, suggesting stable expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin is essentially flat at around 5.92 percent, indicating no material change in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E has edged higher from about 20.18x to 20.23x, implying a marginally higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Ongoing digitalization and diversification into new financial products are expanding LendingTree's user base and reducing reliance on individual loan categories.
Automation, AI integration, and process optimization are driving efficiencies, improving lead quality, and supporting higher net margins amid sustained revenue growth.
A mix of escalating competition, rising customer acquisition costs, regulatory pressures, and evolving digital finance could undermine profitability and disrupt LendingTree's traditional revenue streams.

Catalysts

About LendingTree

Through its subsidiary, operates online consumer platform in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing adoption of digital financial services and the increasing tendency of consumers to shop for and compare financial products online are expanding the pool of active LendingTree users, directly supporting long-term revenue growth as consumer behavior shifts even further online.
Broader acceptance and growth of the gig economy and non-traditional borrowers is driving heightened demand for flexible and accessible financial solutions, allowing LendingTree to capture a larger share of this growing segment and expand its addressable market, ultimately increasing both loan volume and revenue.
Extensive investment in and integration of AI and advanced analytics across the business is already resulting in improved lead quality, higher conversion rates, and operational efficiencies (e.g., in marketing and product development), which should drive higher net margins and EBITDA through reduced expenses and better monetization.
The company's expansion into new product verticals (like small business lending and insurance, both showing strong double-digit growth) is diversifying revenue streams, reducing exposure to any one loan category, and supporting sustained overall revenue and earnings growth.
Improved cost controls, automation, and process optimization-including deploying AI-driven productivity tools to employees-are reducing operating expenses and enabling greater output at lower incremental cost, which positions LendingTree for future net margin expansion as revenue grows.

LendingTree Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming LendingTree's revenue will grow by 6.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -5.3% today to 5.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $71.0 million (and earnings per share of $4.89) by about September 2028, up from $-54.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -17.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Consumer Finance industry at 10.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.93% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

LendingTree Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying competition from both big tech entrants and other online aggregators risks eroding LendingTree's brand differentiation and market share, which could constrain future revenue growth and put downward pressure on net margins.
Increasing customer acquisition costs due to a highly competitive digital advertising environment-especially as platforms like Google or generative AI search engines dominate user discovery-may begin to compress LendingTree's operating margins and decrease overall profitability.
The platform's reliance on continued loan origination growth and lender willingness to broaden credit boxes exposes LendingTree to cyclical downturns, interest rate shocks, and episodes of tighter credit, all of which could create substantial revenue and earnings volatility.
Advances in embedded finance and direct-to-consumer digital solutions by banks and fintechs could enable lenders to bypass LendingTree altogether, resulting in reduced referral fee income and threatening long-term revenue streams.
More stringent data privacy and consumer protection regulations-especially as LendingTree increases its use of AI and data-driven personalization-could increase compliance costs, restrict monetization strategies, and negatively impact both revenue generation and net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $67.667 for LendingTree based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $78.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $60.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.2 billion, earnings will come to $71.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.3%.
Given the current share price of $68.47, the analyst price target of $67.67 is 1.2% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on LendingTree?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

TREE: Broad-Based Expansion And Rate Cuts Will Drive Future Performance