Last Update 16 May 26

Fair value Decreased 19%

SMR: ENTRA1 Progress And Liquidity Position Will Support Future Commercialization

Analysts have trimmed the consolidated price target for NuScale Power to $16.50, reflecting a reset of fair value assumptions and P/E expectations as they factor in extended timelines to Final Investment Decisions, as well as ongoing overhang from equity issuance and project execution risk.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on NuScale Power shows a reset in expectations, with lower price targets across multiple firms and a focus on execution risk, capital needs, and the pace of commercialization.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that NuScale is continuing to work toward commercialization, with the RoPower and ENTRA1/TVA projects described as moving in the right direction, which they see as supportive of long-term growth potential.
NuScale closed 2025 with a reported US$1.3b liquidity position, backed by US$750m in at-the-market equity proceeds. Bullish analysts view this as providing financial flexibility for ongoing project development.
The introduction of a new US$1b at-the-market program is framed by supportive analysts as additional capital access that can help fund progress toward Final Investment Decisions and future deployment.
Some bullish analysts maintain positive or more constructive ratings even after cutting targets. They suggest that the current valuation already reflects many of the near term headwinds.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have trimmed price targets by wide margins, with cuts such as to US$14 from US$21, US$11.50 from US$18.50, US$20 from US$55, and US$15 from US$45. They indicate reduced fair value assumptions as they factor in timing and risk.
Several research notes point to lengthy and uncertain timelines to Final Investment Decisions, which they see as a key overhang on valuation and a risk to the pace of revenue conversion from the current project pipeline.
Analysts flag near term pressures including active share sales by a major shareholder, potential at-the-market issuance effects, and delays tied to specific project announcements. They see these factors as weighing on execution and share performance.
Some bearish analysts keep cautious ratings such as Sell, Neutral, Equal Weight, or Sector Perform, reflecting concerns that project execution, funding needs, and equity issuance risk could constrain upside even after target cuts.

What's in the News

NuScale opened a new Operations Center at CityCentre in Houston, Texas, placing the company close to petrochemical plants, data centers, and grid applications that are seeking carbon free power solutions. The facility is intended to support project execution, coordination, and customer support across energy and industrial sectors (Key Developments).
An undisclosed buyer acquired an 11.56% stake in NuScale Power from Fluor Corporation for approximately US$470 million. The transaction closed on April 23, 2026 (Key Developments).
NuScale and Ebara Elliott Energy launched a collaborative research program to field test a commercial scale high temperature steam compressor that aims to integrate NuScale Power Modules with petrochemical plants needing process heat. Compressor completion is targeted for 2027 and field testing candidates are currently being sought (Key Developments).
Framatome and NuScale expanded their fuel fabrication partnership to include Framatome’s European facilities and issued notice to qualify the Richland, Washington facility to produce NuFUEL-HTP2 assemblies. This includes direction to produce at least 444 fuel assemblies for NuScale’s first U.S. customer as early as 2030 (Key Developments).
NuScale withdrew a previously announced US$750 million at the market follow on equity offering and subsequently filed a new US$1 billion at the market follow on equity offering of Class A common stock, covering multiple tranches with specified share counts and pricing ranges (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed from $20.42 to $16.50, a reduction of roughly 19% in the consolidated fair value estimate.
Discount Rate: raised slightly from 9.09% to 9.70%, indicating a modestly higher required return for the equity.
Revenue Growth: revised from 119.02% to 186.03%, implying a higher long term growth assumption for dollar revenue.
Net Profit Margin: adjusted marginally from 11.25% to 11.20%, with only a minor change in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: cut from 278.02x to 188.36x, pointing to a lower valuation multiple being applied to expected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

NuScale's advanced SMR commercialization and partnerships position it well for accelerated revenue growth and immediate deployment in competitive energy markets.
Efficiency improvements and strategic focus on reducing expenses are expected to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.
Challenges in securing agreements, funding uncertainties, and potential supply chain issues threaten cash flow, earnings, and profitability, despite project advancements.

Catalysts

About NuScale Power

Provides small modular reactor technology solutions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

NuScale's involvement in the RoPower 6-module small modular reactor (SMR) power plant in Romania indicates future meaningful revenue and cash flow through its partnership in the Fluor-led Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) Phase 2. This project enhances NuScale's revenue prospects.
With an NRC-approved SMR technology and the commitment of over $2 billion towards its development and licensing, NuScale is uniquely positioned for immediate commercial deployment compared to competitors focused solely on demonstration plans. This potentially accelerates revenue growth once commercial operations commence.
NuScale is advancing the manufacturing of long-lead materials for 12 modules, anticipating customer demand, which supports a smooth production ramp-up, reducing delivery times significantly, and potentially boosting future revenue and earnings.
Significant demand for nuclear energy, especially from AI-driven data centers like Microsoft and Meta, could lead to increased interest and order placements for NuScale’s SMR technology. This could materially increase future revenues as data centers triple their energy use by 2028.
NuScale's focus on reducing operating expenses, as noted by the substantial year-over-year decrease, could lead to improved net margins. Efficiency improvements transitioning from R&D to commercialization are likely to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.

NuScale Power Earnings and Revenue Growth

NuScale Power Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming NuScale Power's revenue will grow by 186.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that NuScale Power will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate NuScale Power's profit margin will increase from -2066.5% to the average US Electrical industry of 11.2% in 3 years.
If NuScale Power's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $48.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.12) by about May 2029, up from -$385.8 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 188.8x on those 2029 earnings, up from -10.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The complexity and negotiation challenges of securing long-term power purchase agreements with prospective customers could delay revenue generation and impact cash flow projections.
The U.S. government grant-related uncertainties and the administrative process of securing additional funding highlight a possible risk to future liquidity and investment inflow, potentially affecting financial stability and development timelines.
Potential bottlenecks in the supply chain or manufacturing process for the small modular reactors, despite current advancements, could lead to increased operational costs and affect net margins.
The dependence on the successful commercialization of ENTRA1 Energy projects and the potential delays in customer acquisition for NuScale's long-lead modules pose a risk to revenue forecasts and earnings projections.
The ongoing regulatory approval process with the NRC for the power upgrade and overall project complexity may result in unanticipated expenses or timeline shifts, impacting future earnings and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.5 for NuScale Power based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $28.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $436.9 million, earnings will come to $48.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 188.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.7%.
Given the current share price of $11.23, the analyst price target of $16.5 is 31.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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