Last Update 23 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 18%

HAS: Higher Media Tie Ins And Margin Execution Will Drive Post 2025 Upside

Analysts have lifted their price targets on Hasbro, supporting a higher implied fair value from about $96 to $113 as they factor in slightly lower revenue growth expectations, modestly higher projected profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research has clustered around higher price targets for Hasbro, with several firms adjusting their models to reflect updated assumptions on growth, profitability, and valuation multiples.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are lifting price targets by mid to high teens in dollar terms, which signals greater confidence in Hasbro's earnings power and the level at which they see the shares as fairly valued.
The move from a roughly $96 to $113 implied fair value suggests optimism that modestly higher profit margins can support a richer P/E multiple, even with slightly lower revenue growth baked into forecasts.
Some research, including at least one large global bank such as Goldman Sachs, is anchoring its outlook on Hasbro's ability to execute on profitability rather than chasing aggressive top line assumptions. This can reduce reliance on very strong sales growth to justify targets.
Incremental target hikes such as the lift to $99 from $89 show a willingness to ascribe more value to Hasbro's existing business model and cost structure, not just to potential new initiatives.

Bearish Takeaways

Even with higher targets, analysts are explicitly building in slightly lower revenue growth expectations, which points to caution around the pace of sales expansion and the risk that weaker demand could pressure earnings.
The reliance on modestly higher margins to support valuation leaves less room for execution missteps, since any shortfall in cost savings or mix improvements could make current fair value assumptions look stretched.
A higher future P/E multiple is a key part of the fair value math. If investor risk appetite cools or sector multiples compress, Hasbro's valuation case could look less compelling relative to these revised targets.
Target increases that are relatively incremental, such as single digit dollar moves, indicate that some analysts still see a more balanced risk and reward profile rather than a clearly mispriced opportunity.

What’s in the News

HBO is developing a TV series based on the Baldur's Gate franchise, which is closely tied to Dungeons & Dragons and could help keep consumer attention on fantasy gaming brands connected to Hasbro’s ecosystem (periodicals).
Hasbro plans to return to the North American International Toy Fair in New York in February 2026 with a broad slate of product reveals and brand milestones across Peppa Pig, Monopoly, Furby, Baby Alive, Beyblade X, Nerf, Transformers, Play-Doh and Disney licensed lines. This highlights an active product and licensing pipeline (key developments).
The board authorized a share repurchase program, with Hasbro announcing it intends to buy back up to US$1,000m of its shares. This can influence earnings per share and the company’s capital return profile over time (key developments).
Hasbro issued full year 2026 guidance that calls for total company revenue to be up 3% to 5% in constant currency, giving investors a reference point for management’s current expectations (key developments).
New licensing collaborations, including a Voltron product line tied to an upcoming Amazon MGM Studios live action film and the launch of Monopoly Blackjack Progressive in UK casinos, show Hasbro continuing to extend its brands into entertainment and gaming experiences (key developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: implied fair value has moved from $96.23 to $113.38, reflecting a higher assessed value per share in updated models.
Discount Rate: the discount rate has edged down slightly from 7.68% to 7.64%, indicating a marginally lower required return in the analysis.
Revenue Growth: forecast revenue growth has shifted from 5.51% to 4.63%, with expectations now pointing to a more measured pace of sales expansion.
Net Profit Margin: projected profit margin has adjusted from 16.54% to 16.77%, implying a small change in anticipated profitability on each dollar of sales.
Future P/E: the assumed future P/E multiple has moved from 20.15x to 22.08x, indicating that the updated framework applies a higher earnings multiple to the stock.

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Key Takeaways

Accelerating digital gaming revenues and strategic brand collaborations are broadening Hasbro's market reach and creating high-margin, recurring income streams.
Enhanced operational efficiency and a focus on strong franchise IP are driving margin expansion, revenue diversification, and more stable long-term earnings.
Heavy reliance on key franchises, digital expansions, and shifting licensing partnerships exposes Hasbro to operational, cost, and growth risks in an evolving and unpredictable market.

Catalysts

About Hasbro

Operates as a toy and game company in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Australia, China, and Hong Kong.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapidly growing cross-platform digital gaming and licensing revenue, exemplified by Wizards of the Coast (notably Magic: The Gathering's 23%+ YoY growth and MONOPOLY GO!), is expanding Hasbro's addressable market and recurring high-margin earnings streams, positioning the company to capitalize on the global rise of digital entertainment, which should drive outsized revenue and operating profit growth.
Expansion into new demographic segments, international markets (especially in Japan and broader APAC), and age groups via strategic brand collaborations (Final Fantasy, Spider-Man, Sonic, etc.) for Magic: The Gathering is unlocking new growth channels and merchandise opportunities-supporting both top-line growth and improved revenue diversification.
Heightened demand for nostalgia and collectibles among Millennials/Gen Z and the durability of key franchises (Magic: The Gathering, D&D, Transformers, etc.) are leading to high engagement, strong long-tail sales, and higher average transaction values, supporting ongoing margin expansion and predictable future cash flows.
Cost rationalization, supply chain diversification, and SKU optimization (cutting low-margin or tariff-hit products) post-Entertainment One divestiture are enhancing operational efficiency and offsetting input cost headwinds-expected to structurally improve net margins and EBITDA over the next several years.
Long-term industry consolidation and Hasbro's strengthened position as an IP-driven, multi-channel entertainment company increases pricing power and cross-licensing leverage, which should sustain higher gross margins and reduce volatility in earnings.

Hasbro Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Hasbro's revenue will grow by 4.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -13.4% today to 15.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $773.5 million (and earnings per share of $5.54) by about September 2028, up from $-568.3 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -19.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Leisure industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.52% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Hasbro Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing reliance on blockbuster franchises like MAGIC: THE GATHERING and large Universes Beyond sets exposes Hasbro to significant franchise concentration risk-if demand falters or franchise fatigue sets in, both revenue growth and earnings could be volatile and unpredictable.
Declining sales and uncertain near-term outlook for Consumer Products, driven by retailer caution, delayed inventory builds, and shifting order patterns, signal sustained challenges in the traditional toy and game business, potentially weighing on total company revenue and profitability.
Persistent exposure to tariffs (with around 50% of US toy and game volume sourced from China and Vietnam) creates continued cost volatility; even with diversification efforts, upcoming tariff headwinds and associated supply chain complications may erode net margins and threaten earnings consistency.
Increasing dependence on licensing partnerships and third-party IP introduces recurring royalty expenses and complex relationships (notably for Wizard's digital and casino gaming initiatives), potentially squeezing net margins-especially if competition for strong licenses intensifies or licensing terms worsen.
Execution risk in digital transformation and large-scale new product launches (such as AAA video games and premium digital storytelling projects) presents the potential for high development costs, mixed critical reception, or slower return on investment, all of which could compress future operating margins and limit Hasbro's revenue diversification.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $88.333 for Hasbro based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.9 billion, earnings will come to $773.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $79.03, the analyst price target of $88.33 is 10.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Gaming And Digital Expansion Will Drive Shareholder Value In The Coming Years