HAS: Pivot Execution And Q3 EPS Beat Will Shape Post 2025 Upside

Analysts have slightly raised their average price target on Hasbro, with one firm moving from $85 to $87. They cite a solid Q3 EPS beat and early progress on the company’s pivot as key supports for the updated view.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research points to a slightly more constructive stance on Hasbro, with the latest price target change framed around execution on its pivot and the quality of its Q3 earnings.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight the Q3 EPS beat as evidence that management is executing on its pivot, which they view as supportive of the higher US$87 target versus the prior US$85 level.
The Q3 result is described as solid even with below the line headwinds. Bullish analysts see this as a sign that the core business can support earnings despite one off or non operating items.
Some see early traction in the pivot as helping to reduce perceived execution risk. They argue that this can justify a modestly richer valuation than previously assigned.
The reaffirmed positive stance on the shares suggests that, for these analysts, the risk reward profile remains attractive if the current earnings trend and pivot progress hold.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, or those more cautious, focus on the reference to below the line headwinds, questioning how sustainable the Q3 EPS strength is once these factors are fully reflected.
They may also worry that the uplift in the price target is incremental, from US$85 to US$87. This can signal that upside from here is seen as more measured rather than open ended.
Some caution that the pivot is still early, so execution risk remains and any stumble could pressure both earnings expectations and valuation multiples.
There is also the view that a solid quarter does not fully resolve longer term questions around growth consistency, leaving some investors hesitant to assign a meaningfully higher P/E without further evidence.

What’s in the News

Hasbro issued earnings guidance for 2025, stating that Total Hasbro revenue is expected to grow high single digits in constant currency, giving investors a sense of how management is framing the year ahead (Corporate guidance).
Netflix named Hasbro a global co master toy licensee for the hit film KPop Demon Hunters, with a product lineup planned for 2026 that spans toys, games, collectibles and role play items. This ties Hasbro more closely to a major entertainment franchise (Client announcement).
Kayou and Hasbro are bringing the MY LITTLE PONY Card Game, Friendships Begin to New York Comic Con ahead of a planned U.S. retail launch in early 2026, extending the brand into trading card games and aiming to reach both collectors and younger players (Product related announcement).
Duluth Trading Co. and Hasbro are launching a limited time Duluth x Hasbro holiday collection in 2025 that features apparel and classic toys such as POTATO Head, LINCOLN LOGS, TONKA and TINKERTOY. This highlights another way Hasbro is using its legacy brands in licensed collaborations (Client announcement).
Hasbro completed the repurchase of 30,161,611 shares, described as 23.25% of shares, for a total of US$1,758.1m under a buyback program originally announced in 2011. No shares were repurchased between June 30, 2025 and September 28, 2025 in the latest tranche update (Buyback tranche update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate edges up from 92.08 to 92.46, indicating a very small upward recalibration in the model output.
Discount Rate shifts slightly from 7.69% to 7.65%, reflecting a modest adjustment in the assumed risk or required return used in the valuation work.
Revenue Growth Assumption remains effectively unchanged, moving from 5.30% to 5.30%, suggesting no material change in the long-term top line outlook used in the model.
Net Profit Margin holds steady at about 16.30%, with only a microscopic change, so the profitability profile in the valuation framework is essentially the same.
Future P/E Multiple nudges higher from 19.70x to 19.75x, a small tweak that slightly lifts the implied valuation without altering the overall earnings multiple story.

Accelerating digital gaming revenues and strategic brand collaborations are broadening Hasbro's market reach and creating high-margin, recurring income streams.
Enhanced operational efficiency and a focus on strong franchise IP are driving margin expansion, revenue diversification, and more stable long-term earnings.
Heavy reliance on key franchises, digital expansions, and shifting licensing partnerships exposes Hasbro to operational, cost, and growth risks in an evolving and unpredictable market.

Catalysts

About Hasbro

Operates as a toy and game company in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Australia, China, and Hong Kong.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapidly growing cross-platform digital gaming and licensing revenue, exemplified by Wizards of the Coast (notably Magic: The Gathering's 23%+ YoY growth and MONOPOLY GO!), is expanding Hasbro's addressable market and recurring high-margin earnings streams, positioning the company to capitalize on the global rise of digital entertainment, which should drive outsized revenue and operating profit growth.
Expansion into new demographic segments, international markets (especially in Japan and broader APAC), and age groups via strategic brand collaborations (Final Fantasy, Spider-Man, Sonic, etc.) for Magic: The Gathering is unlocking new growth channels and merchandise opportunities-supporting both top-line growth and improved revenue diversification.
Heightened demand for nostalgia and collectibles among Millennials/Gen Z and the durability of key franchises (Magic: The Gathering, D&D, Transformers, etc.) are leading to high engagement, strong long-tail sales, and higher average transaction values, supporting ongoing margin expansion and predictable future cash flows.
Cost rationalization, supply chain diversification, and SKU optimization (cutting low-margin or tariff-hit products) post-Entertainment One divestiture are enhancing operational efficiency and offsetting input cost headwinds-expected to structurally improve net margins and EBITDA over the next several years.
Long-term industry consolidation and Hasbro's strengthened position as an IP-driven, multi-channel entertainment company increases pricing power and cross-licensing leverage, which should sustain higher gross margins and reduce volatility in earnings.

Hasbro Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Hasbro's revenue will grow by 4.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -13.4% today to 15.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $773.5 million (and earnings per share of $5.54) by about September 2028, up from $-568.3 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -19.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Leisure industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.52% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Hasbro Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing reliance on blockbuster franchises like MAGIC: THE GATHERING and large Universes Beyond sets exposes Hasbro to significant franchise concentration risk-if demand falters or franchise fatigue sets in, both revenue growth and earnings could be volatile and unpredictable.
Declining sales and uncertain near-term outlook for Consumer Products, driven by retailer caution, delayed inventory builds, and shifting order patterns, signal sustained challenges in the traditional toy and game business, potentially weighing on total company revenue and profitability.
Persistent exposure to tariffs (with around 50% of US toy and game volume sourced from China and Vietnam) creates continued cost volatility; even with diversification efforts, upcoming tariff headwinds and associated supply chain complications may erode net margins and threaten earnings consistency.
Increasing dependence on licensing partnerships and third-party IP introduces recurring royalty expenses and complex relationships (notably for Wizard's digital and casino gaming initiatives), potentially squeezing net margins-especially if competition for strong licenses intensifies or licensing terms worsen.
Execution risk in digital transformation and large-scale new product launches (such as AAA video games and premium digital storytelling projects) presents the potential for high development costs, mixed critical reception, or slower return on investment, all of which could compress future operating margins and limit Hasbro's revenue diversification.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $88.333 for Hasbro based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.9 billion, earnings will come to $773.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $79.03, the analyst price target of $88.33 is 10.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Gaming And Digital Expansion Will Drive Shareholder Value In The Coming Years