Last Update 03 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 1.17%

AVPT: AI Governance And Security Focus Will Support Future Share Gains

The analyst price target for AvePoint has been trimmed by about $0.22, with analysts pointing to updated fair value, discount rate and future P/E assumptions, along with recent Street target revisions in the systems software group, as the key drivers of the adjustment.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still see support for AvePoint's current valuation framework, even as price targets are trimmed to reflect updated fair value models and peer group comparisons in systems software.
The refreshed targets incorporate revised P/E assumptions, which suggests analysts are trying to keep expectations aligned with the broader software group rather than a company specific downgrade in execution.
Maintaining a Neutral stance in recent research implies that, at current levels, some analysts view AvePoint as reasonably priced relative to their updated survey work with chief information security officers.
Ongoing coverage and target updates indicate that AvePoint remains on the radar for Street research, with analysts continuing to fine tune their views on the company instead of stepping away from the story.

Bearish Takeaways

Several price targets have been lowered, including one move to US$15 from US$16, which points to tempered expectations for upside and a tighter margin of safety for new entrants.
Bearish analysts are using more conservative discount rates and forward P/E inputs, which can cap valuation multiples and reduce implied return potential in their models.
The broader reset in systems software targets, following recent survey work, suggests that AvePoint may be grouped with peers facing similar questions on spending appetite and growth durability from security focused buyers.
With Neutral ratings preserved rather than upgraded, there is a signal that analysts want more proof on execution before assigning richer valuation multiples or more constructive ratings.

What's in the News

AvePoint launched AvePoint AgentPulse Command Center, an AI agent registry intended to centralize tracking of AI agents to help organizations manage security risks and costs as usage of agentic AI expands. The product is currently available in private preview on the AvePoint Confidence Platform (Key Developments).
AgentPulse is positioned to give customers more visibility into high activity AI agents that generate frequent interactions or access large data volumes. This may help organizations review or remove agents that drive unexpected AI related expenses (Key Developments).
The launch of AgentPulse follows an October update to the Confidence Platform focused on compliance enforcement for AI agents. It extends AvePoint's AI governance features across multiple AI agent types, including Microsoft 365 related tools, SharePoint, Azure AI Foundry, ISV Store and others (Key Developments).
AvePoint raised its full year 2025 earnings guidance and now expects total revenues of US$414.8m to US$416.8m. The company provided year over year growth guidance of 25.5% to 26.1% and constant currency revenue growth guidance of 23.5% to 24.1% (Key Developments).
For the fourth quarter of 2025, AvePoint issued earnings guidance that anticipates total revenues of US$110.0m to US$112.0m. The company provided year over year growth guidance of 23% to 26% and constant currency revenue growth guidance of 20% to 23% (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from US$19.01 to US$18.79 per share, reflecting a modest adjustment in the valuation model.
Discount Rate: reduced marginally from 8.45% to about 8.40%, indicating a small change in the assumed risk profile.
Revenue Growth: held essentially steady at about 18.41%, suggesting no material change to top line growth assumptions in the updated model.
Net Profit Margin: kept broadly unchanged at about 14.46%, so profitability assumptions remain consistent with prior estimates.
Future P/E: lowered slightly from about 67.42x to 66.55x, pointing to a modestly more conservative earnings multiple applied to future results.

Growing regulatory and security demands are strengthening AvePoint's position as an essential, integrated provider for enterprise data governance and compliance.
Strategic expansion beyond Microsoft, investment in AI, and improved sales efficiency are driving diversification, multi-year growth, and higher-margin opportunities.
Dependence on Microsoft, slow multi-cloud growth, rising compliance costs, service-heavy revenue mix, and intensifying competition threaten profitability, market share, and long-term revenue potential.

Catalysts

About AvePoint

Provides cloud-native data management software platform in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The accelerating enterprise adoption of AI tools like Microsoft Copilot, alongside increasing security and data governance challenges, is positioning AvePoint's data management and governance solutions as mission-critical, driving robust customer expansions and higher spending per customer-a catalyst for sustained revenue growth and stronger net retention rates.
Heightened regulatory scrutiny and rising global data privacy requirements are leading more organizations to consolidate vendors and seek unified, comprehensive data protection and compliance solutions, which favors AvePoint's integrated platform approach and supports both durable revenue growth and improved gross margins.
The expansion of AvePoint's offerings into adjacent cloud platforms (Google Workspace, Salesforce) and the early-stage rollout of Governance-as-a-Service beyond Microsoft 365 open up significant new addressable markets and revenue channels, likely to drive multi-year top-line growth and diversification.
Strategic investments in AI-driven automation, security enhancements, and new product suites (e.g., Risk Posture Command Center, Agentic AI governance) are helping AvePoint capture higher-margin opportunities, fueling operating margin expansion and potentially higher net earnings over time.
Increasing channel contribution and improved sales productivity-evident in faster ramp times, lower sales and marketing spend as a percentage of revenue, and growing managed service provider (MSP) penetration-are driving greater sales efficiency and supporting future operating margin improvements.

AvePoint Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming AvePoint's revenue will grow by 20.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.3% today to 11.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $76.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.59) by about September 2028, up from $-8.4 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 94.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from -404.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

AvePoint Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on the Microsoft ecosystem persists, as coverage outside Microsoft clouds (Google Workspace, Salesforce, etc.) remains under 10% of revenue-any shift in Microsoft's strategy or new native features could reduce AvePoint's market relevance and pose platform risk, threatening both revenue growth and customer retention.
Slower-than-expected expansion of governance capabilities into the broader multi-cloud market (beyond backup) means future revenue diversification is uncertain; this could cap the total addressable market and expose AvePoint to customer concentration risks, potentially limiting long-term revenue upside.
Increasing regulatory scrutiny and evolving data sovereignty laws (especially in EMEA and APAC) may impose higher compliance costs and impede international expansion, which could compress net margins and hinder revenue scalability.
Gross profit margin declined year-over-year due to a higher mix of lower-margin services revenue; if this trend continues, persistent service revenue outperformance over SaaS could pressure overall profitability and net earnings, even in the face of top-line growth.
Industry consolidation and competition from large, integrated SaaS/cloud vendors (e.g., Microsoft, Google, AWS) threaten to increase pricing pressures and decrease market share for independent providers like AvePoint, potentially leading to lower profitability and increased operating expenses over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.889 for AvePoint based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $26.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $18.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $658.7 million, earnings will come to $76.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 94.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $16.1, the analyst price target of $21.89 is 26.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Weigh Growth Prospects as AvePoint Posts Higher Margins and Modest Price Target Adjustment